Starting another thread about 2026 and the future of AES. There are so many rumors about what's next: sell company to Blackrock, split renewables and sell off Indiana or Ohio utilities to Duke, new senior leadership & board, etc. Any of these paths will ensure funding is cut and "they" force more work with less resources. Again. Let's hear what other rumors are out there.
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EQT/GIP coming in strong; buy AES, take private, sell Ohio/Indiana utilities to Duke or Excelon. Merge multiple "Clean Energy" companies under their umbrella into 1 international company. Layoffs, cost cutting, and get ready for a HUGE 2028+ when there's a Dem controlled house and Prez. New IPO if all goes well.
Simply put AES is the worst run company I have ever seen
The Q3 financials show the facts. AES is beyond financially stressed in that its interest coverage is less than 1, debt at 30 bn, and the debt/EBITDA is 10-11x which is more than double a stable utility. Maturities will come due in 2027, so unless AES can pay down major debt by then, they will have to refinance at higher rates, sell more assets, continue to cut back O&M, complete the renewables that are currently costing the company close to $200 million a quarter in losses, sell those off and if lucky only reduce head count by another 15% to stay alive. This assumes keeping a BBB- rating and not falling to junk. It’s bleak.
Lots of bankruptcy rumors floating around. At this rate, it would make sense for AES to declare bankruptcy just to offload some debt and make itself more attractive to prospective buyers. The snowballing interest rates can only be staved off for so long. The Fed has not been generous with rate drops either. As far as I can tell, it’s the best choice. Good news is bankruptcy does not mean everyone is affected, but it’ll be ugly nonetheless.