Ryan “poorly tailored suits” Lance, CEO of ConocoPhilllips, stated
"We probably plateau later this decade," Lance said. "It's going to be slow decline beyond that, because there's a lot of resource."
What’s your technical perspective or intuition on production declines and soaring OPEX now that Ryan is viewed with contempt by field personnel particularly Marathon and Concho Honchos
If we all chipped in to buy him a nicely tailored suit would it “add value” ?
To be totally honest, I think Ryan has done an excellent job leading the company, and I don’t think this is his fault, nor do I blame the ELT.
The fact is: Investors are not interested in fossil fuel stocks. Thank the previous administration which brainwashed most citizens to believe we’d all be driving Teslas and there would be no need for gasoline
after 2030. (Never mind plastics, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.)
And I thin people view the current administration as a one-off, that will keep oil demand until their 4 year term is over, then we’ll be back to forced electric cars…
I’d love to see the data analytics on that. But yeah, payroll for experienced employees is higher. That said, 20% is a chunk so younger, junior employees will be laid off. No surprise if any youngsters have had personal or family issues in the past year.
@tz where is the Wizard of Alpine High
@dz agreed, a case study is Apache's disastrous Alpine High project. Wonder where the Geology VP who championed that dumpster fire is today?
Missing Dino’s Lion King ties on casual Fridays.
I like Ryan’s suits. He looks good in them.
@hf this needs to be shared at a town hall. It’s not the people or the assets (Marathon assets are difficult to absorb) it’s the leadership and it’s direction…
How many COP people foresee a massive pivot in 2026?
What I think is missing is that development is focused on best and cheapest development in the near term. Makes sense to focus on best inventory. However what that also implies is you wave poorer and poorer projects scheduled for the future, that’s your long range plan. In order to mask that, there are assumptions that you will find ways to optimize and improve those poorer locations to be as good or better as what you are doing today. Those technical assumptions can cause your plan to fail and when you fail on revenue stream you have to focus on cost and people are the easiest target unfortunately. More than the CEO, his executive leadership needs to take ownership as they are the ones advising him. They have misinformed him on costs and performance and he needs to take responsibility and make changes there. Without changing the people who got you there you will continue to repeat this cycle over and over.
Are these off the rack suites with the pre-finished pant bottoms by any chance? Maybe with an elastic waist?
@dx perfectly laid out and spot on back up…
The reason domestic companies have the privilege to lay off 20% of domestic staff at the moment is that they are keenly aware that in the near term those assets and their false narrative of forever growth is doomed. Granted there remain significant resources and we can never discount the ingenuity in the field to deliver more, faster, cheaper…
Company management and consulting companies have clearly demonstrated that the route to prosperity is not the drill bit but in reaping the rewards by selling/buying companies. In the next few years we will continue this trend as its market and regulatory driven before the 2028 election. Some companies such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips are aware of future state events and are proactively preparing and positioning to both survive and prosper….
@OP The CEOs making these statements are doing so based on the data and analysis. Technical perspective is useful but I wouldn't put much weight on intuition.
The core issue is rapid depletion rates of shale wells. If you search for charts of shale oil production by year drilled you'll find a few different variations but I like the one below. It's fairly current and shows the shrinking share of production from new wells.
Chart: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/shale-oil-well-production.jpg
Source: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/shale-oil-should-investors-fear-the-red-queen-effect/
Take a look at the tailing end of 2022. Production was ~8 million bbl/d but 4 million of that was from wells drilled in 2022. With the highest tier deposits drilled before lower ones combined with rapid production decline, not to mention rising cost of capital, it was always a matter of time before US shale peaks. It's impossible to bring 4+ million boe online annually forever.
Industry consolidation and layoffs is the consequence.
@ba what makes him aged-out? Just because you do not like the suit he wears? Does he need to wear modern fashion to be good at being a CEO?
Do you have some information that we dont that everyone who will be let go in November is over 45 years old, or that everyone who will be let go has 10+ years experience?
@b9 how come aged out CEO get to continue yet many experienced and valuable employees over 45 are thrown in the trash
If you are so concerned about Ryans fashion sense, I don't trust your opinion on any technical matters.
I also do not understand why him being liked by field staff has anything to do with his production prediction.
This is basically the d-mbest post of the day.