Count on it. I work at a small rural health plan. Our CEO sent out an email immediately after the BBB passed and said there is difficult times ahead and sounds like a 20% layoff is coming.
If this is happening at a small rural health plan, expect at least 20% layoffs or greater, possibly lesser in certain favorable areas if you're lucky. Centene stock crash 40% the other day, United (UHG, Optum, UHC) dropped basically 50% earlier in the year and slightly rebounded, but is getting hit again with all this news and I'm sure Monday will be bloody for healthcare stocks. Molina dropped 20% and their former CEO said it's basically doom/gloom per the Becker's article, Oscar dropped 18% as well.
Also most certainly expect rural hospital closures. This might be closer to 2008 level with banks, where the government steps in and has Big Healthcare come in and buy up all the failing payers/hospitals/etc. I thought a crash was coming in 2026, but it appears it's happening now.
This looks really damn bad. Since ACA enhanced subsidies are 100% expiring at 12/31/25, that MA payment increase is laughable and even small payers are pulling out of it, and the morbidity of ACA/Medicaid/MA members is extremely high right now for various reasons. It's a perfect storm, and not a good one.