By all accounts DJT has said he wants tariffs permanently in order to bring in money that way. What's the impact on the economy and Chevron in particular? Any impact or expansion of the layoffs for us?
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“ “ no increase in inflation”. The data does not support this”
The data from his first term absolutely supports this.
A good story discussing tariff on 60 min tonight, a fair presentation of both sides of the argument.
“ no increase in inflation”. The data does not support this. It is estimated that Trumps new tariffs will cost the average household $2k, and that is money that will not be spent on things like gas for discretionary travel. When you restrict imports, domestic producers raise prices. Trumps previous tariffs on steel increased prices. Manufactures using steel did their best to control price increases by, among other things, layoffs. Trump’s tariffs greater 1000 new jobs in the domestic steel industry but lead to the loss of 75,000 jobs in manufacturing companies that use steel. The impacts of trump’s previous restricted tariffs were hidden by strong overall economic growth (in no small part a carryover from the Obama years), but his new tariffs are much broader and will be more noticeable from the start.
“ Trumps previous tariffs were narrowly targeted against specific industries he considered to be behaving in anti-competitive ways (the US has a long history of those types of tariffs),”
And there was no increase in inflation in all of those industries. Those foreign companies ate most of the tariffs by reducing their profit margins.
Pain.
Trumps previous tariffs were narrowly targeted against specific industries he considered to be behaving in anti-competitive ways (the US has a long history of those types of tariffs), these tariffs are different because they are very broad and directly include consumer goods and food. Inflation this time will be obvious very quickly and I expect the market will crash if they stay on for even a month.
“ “make tariffs revenue neutral"...for companies maybe, but not for consumers who are directly paying the tariffs by higher prices. “
Tariffs didnt increase prices during Trumps first term.
"make tariffs revenue neutral"...for companies maybe, but not for consumers who are directly paying the tariffs by higher prices. Trump hinted reducing income tax based on tariff collections, but that would effectively be a consumption tax that disporpotionally hits the poor and middle class.
“ "against the corporate taxes": Someone needs to fund the goverment”
But it raises prices!!! You do realize the government collects revenues from tariffs
There is a way to make tariffs revenue neutral by reducing US corporate tax rates by an equivalent amount Of course, the Left would hate that as its inconsistent with their America Last policies.
"against the corporate taxes": Someone needs to fund the goverment and I would prefer the burden be fair rather than the middle class carrying most of the weight. Inflation hurts those that need to spend all their income for day to day living expenses, more than those at the top who can carry their wealth forward as investments.
When you want to isolate a country as punishment you impose a trade embargo to isolate them from the economy of the rest of the world, but why would any country want to do this to themselves? Broad general tariffs have been tried before (most notably early in the Great Depression), with devastating results. History unlearned repeats.
If you are against tariffs because they raise prices then you definitely should be against the corporate taxes and gasoline taxes.
basically everything reduced to domestic production, domestic supply and domestic consumption
our trade doors will be closed or limited
It will lead to inflation and broad supply chain disruptions, which in turn is very likely lead to a recession and, in turn, lower energy consumption. More immediate impact on Chevron downstream by expected retaliatory tariffs will be cost increases (and even restriction) of heavy Canadian crude that we need in our refineries to balance all that super light oil from west Texas, potenitally slowing output and decreasing profits. Maybe Trump is just saber rattling to get the attention of our trading partners, but restricting international trade using broad tariffs (and expected retribution tariffs) as never been good for the world economy.
The tariffs are being used for statecraft, not for long term funding. Trump will get what he wants and drop the tariffs within a few months.
For Chevron, it will cause a flurry of market intel, PowerPoints, and contingency plans.