Bottom Line. Avaya has a significant presence in the market that can be positioned for smart, profitable growth and success. However, the poor choices & erratic redirections of past leadership compromised that future. This is what must happen in the next 18 days :
- Avaya must file the ** 10k on 11/29** . The 'extension' of the 10q due 11/30 (per SEC). Question: will they be allowed an extension of 10k? And if so, isn't Q3 10q still due by the deadline?
- Debt Deal. Avaya needs to find a settlement agreement with the crediters who financed the $600m in June. This must be settled as quickly as possible so it is known that Avaya can make the payments for the 2023 bonds due in June. 2 weeks ago they were close to an agreement. Then a few parties involved began to negotiate adding in "restricted' vs "non restricted". This is a deal that should be settled with little concern. RISK? Apollo group. Who failed to get owneship of Avaya in 2019 wants Avaya to be forced to agree to BK. If this debt deal is addressed, Avaya can focus on the business and growth. If it is not, bankruptcy is real. If bankruptcy is real Apollo has a right to gain some ownership due to the 2028 bonds they bought into. Thus, Apollo only gains if Avaya goes Bankrupt. There are several reports that there may be people on the Avya board of directors who are Team Apollo. The Interim CFO may have been associated with one of these board members recently where they were accused of trying to force a bankruptcy. They did not succeed because the employees of the company exposed the plot. They avoid bad press. You want to expose the possibility that they are trying it with Avaya? MAKE SOME NOISE
- Whistleblower. We trust the internal investigation into the Whistleblower report was resolved as the SEC never opened a formal investigation.
will be required to be addressed during the earnings call/Annual Report. It is important to note the date of the Interim CFO start. She will now be the one answering questions during that call.
- Restructuring possibility Alan Masarek is not the guy a board hires to ki-l a company or go to BK. He is a turnaround/growth leader. So we can trust he is fighting tooth and nail to avoid formal restructuring. Yet understand it is a real possibility. If they secure the debt deal and can move forward, expect radical leadership chances by January 1. No more of the business unit leaders who survive because they told JC what he wantd to hear. No more not qualified individuals in roles because JC 'hand selected' them. Alan will hire qualified, educated, mature and engaged leaders to focus on real growth. If restructuring, well, that is never good for anyone. There will likely be no strategic leaders if they are forced toward formal restructuring.
18 days. It should be known by then.