Thread regarding Ford layoffs

You have to be one DAMF to hold your 401K in Ford stock and work at Ford at the same time.

Why is a depression out of the question? Everyone is so conditioned to accept a recession, that a depression is out of the question?

ehh we are heading towards recession. This is what happens after the Federal Reserve Prints to much money and the Federal Government goes on a drunken spending spree Inflation and then recession

I know a guy that has been holding 5000 shares of Ford stock for years with his average cost for share at $7. I advised him to dump it years ago as he has missed the incredible market rise for many years.

He kept texting me as it crawled up to $25 - essentially saying "I told you so".

Now that is has fallen to the $15s, I don't hear anything from him anymore. Funny how that works.

Ford stock is a dead end. It may have a few brief moments which may help the day traders, but if you are holding it for retirement, as my guy was, watch out!

I think $5 is conservative. I think by this time next year the stock could be in the $2 range. If you have Ford stock and you haven't already sold it by now you are nutso.

Just want to let everyone know, and perhaps you already do, there's a gap leading all the way back to $5 that must be filled.

Imagine, what that will do to your 401k, and what infliction that will place upon the market, as multiple fortune companies move back to fill those gaps.

It's not speculation. It's guaranteed. What you do while it moves back to that point, is upon your shoulders. DYODD. Fear, and greed. Time is the great equalizer.

*down to 64%

I do agree there is a Ford rally in the future. What the MSM excuse will be, I have no idea. There are gaps leading up to $20, and $22, so it's obvious it will fill. Mark my words, that price WILL fill, but as a contingency, always DYODD.

I'm of the mindset that news is noise. The moves will occur, and what they present to the public is not of any concern. It's simply mass justification for the move - to appease the masses.

For instance, a number of weeks back, I spoke with a family member as Ford price was approaching $25. I stated that it might be a good time to sell into strength, take some cash off the table. There exists a gap to the downside at both $21, as well as $16. Fast forward, both of those gaps filled, and price is currently down 64% or so, from it's high. He was offended when I reminding him, that I warned him. As if it was my fault for his fear or greed.

I couldn't tell you one bit, what the MSM news agenda was, or what the spin was in the market. I only saw the movement in the charts. Granted, I wasn't invested in the move, as I play the actual exchanges up and down, 3x leveraged both ways up or down. It makes for a VERY profitable, or costly trade, but I find it to be extremely worthwhile in opportunity.

So, I guess my opinion and experience is, I don't care what the current news, or catastrophe, or shiny coin of the day fear campaign is. I see the movements in the charts. I find those that follow the news, are the ones that most often feel the ill effects of the moves.

You can't rely on technicals in a market froth with systematic risk- charting works better in more of a medium environment. I don't know that it worked very well last year at the opposite extreme either. How can charting predict what Putin will do next and the follow on market reaction(s)?

The best comparator is the Volker era in which the market ultimately went down 27% over like 1.5 years. Remember this environment is the polar opposite of last year's- Fed throwing massive amounts of liquidity at everything in a zero rate environment. We now have have infinitely more inflationary "headline" risk and risk I might add the Fed can do nothing about, coupled with the fact that the Biden administration doesn't seem capable of grasping even basic economic principles. Don't take my word for it- please listen to Jen Psaki talk about inflation over the months. Take Ford as a proxy.

Ford Explorer sales have fallen like 57% over a year due largely to the chip shortage. Higher input costs will also start to eat away at operating margins, and this is true for all companies. Bottom line is it's nearly impossible to justify higher P/E's in what I just descripted, and I didn't even mention the negative forthcoming QE measures. You'll get "blowoff" relief rallies short term on the way to a 20%+ correction. I think we're only at 13% now. I wouldn't touch this stuff with a 10 foot pole now.

Let me know when (not if) Ford stock hits $5. I'll be back in after being out for 15+ years or more.

Buy low. Sell high.

Up until sometime in November it made a lot of sense to invest the money as the market was climbing like crazy and a better rate of return than the interest on the student loans. Definitely not the case any more, and with the fact that student loans aren't dischargable through bankruptcy you might as well get them paid off since you'll be stuck with paying that fine interest for as long as you let it drag out

Pounded into the ground, or tapped down into the lower atmosphere?

One thing to possibly note is that student debt repayment is extremely unlikely to be unpaused anytime soon because of politics, so those with big student debt can continue to spend their money on "stuff" and buying stocks, rather than paying back debt.