Starting a thread about Q4 2021 earnings... what do you think they will look like?
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Financial engineering yet again
Lets see.......I use a HP laptop at work and home, I use an Epson printer at work, and a Cannon printer at home, I have Microsoft windows and office installed on both, Sitting next to my iphone, which my company pays for. I guess that about sums it all up.
The quarter is going to be very very muddy. Remember IBM has to discontinue the Kyndryl operation which means 1.5 billion in revenue off of the estimate and .25 cents off the earnings estimate. I fully expect a OTC in addition to the 1 billion already announced. Why? Because IBM has demonstrated repeatedly that they lack innovation, so their only play is cost reduction. Currently IBM needs to slim down by 50k worth of heads. That would get them to the 300k per employee of revenue (where most companies are competitive and innovative) The OTC will be to spin off non-strategic parts of the business. BAIN recommended this 3 years ago, but Ginni couldn’t pull the trigger. AK will pull the trigger and IBM will shrink. Wall Street has adopted the old saying “fool me once shame on me, fool me 14 times shame on you” Until IBM puts up some restructuring points on the board that are not window dressing, IBM will get treated like a bond offering vs a stock offering. IBM’s exec management has demonstrated restructuring incompetence repeatedly and Wall Street is saying “show me” other wise we don’t believe you. Gerstner had to shrink IBM almost 50% (400k to 220k) to prove IBM was on a different path, and he accomplished it in 18 months. The GTS spin-off of 88k was a good first step, but there is a lot to go. AK you are 2 years in! It’s time to execute the strategy or resign. Since IBM is still seen as treading water, the OTC is more likely vs not. When you can’t dazzle them with results, baffle them with mud
Consulting to the moon.
S.H.I.T
My psychic premonition ... IBM will take another huge "One-time, non-recurring Charge Against Earnings" to fudge the numbers.
Ya know, the same kind of "One-time, non-recurring Charge Against Earnings" that seems to recur again & again & again & again & again ...
Oh, and I predict that NONE of the sycophant Wall Street analysts on the call will question AK about that during the Q&A session. Rather, I predict someone will begin their question with: "First of all, congrats Arvid on a good quarter..."
Save this. Let's see if I'm right.
I'm sure Kavanaugh is having his minions dig around in the break room couch to find that extra penny per share.
More important, though, is revenue. That won't go anywhere, just to make sure the joke of a bonus doesn't pay out all all for the 3rd year straight. At least for the employees. Execs will fill their pockets.