Since TLO focuses on negatives oftentimes, let's take a minute to celebrate stock price hitting $84, striking distance to the July 2014 ATH.
The market has confirmed that the concho and shell acquisitions were great. I haven't checked lately, but it seems we are in a much better position than our peers.
I think its fair to say that COP is top-tier in US non-conventional production,
As soon as we can find a sukker, Alaska will probably be next to go. Then Norway. Then, sell the rest so the ELT and champ can retire and buy private islands.
Babycakes: I vividly remember recently selling several conventional assets, even entire business units, because they were deemed to be non competitive with COP’s “top tier” unconventional assets. Indonesia is next to be sold then what? There’s not much left to choose from. Mark my words, there will come a point in time where COP won’t be able to pay the current dividend to our shareholders because the future revenue projections from the unconventional plays are bogus….
Remember when we sold oil to focus on gas? SELA. Remember when we sold gas to focus on oil? San Juan. Remember when we sold our offices to focus on social justice?Remember when?
COP price is tied directly to the WTI. WTI is at a high of $85. When the WTI goes down, COP goes down. Simple at that.
ConocoPhillips’s is top tier spin. Don’t believe me? Look back at the last ten years of analyst presentations vs what actually happened. But the naive folks on Wall Street buy into our leaders’ “good old boy” spin and the foreign accents. We have not delivered. We have not delivered. We have not delivered! But our PowerPoint presentations are world class top tier.
Top tier? You’ve got to be kidding. The stock price is driven primarily by the price of oil. Do a regression analysis if you can.
Just stick your money in the overall market, tickers VTI or VOO, then forget it. O&G stocks are cyclical as a mother and are not compelling investments. Time to retire “compelling”.
Dividend yield comparison as of 01-12-22:
XOM 4.9%
CVX 4.2%
DVN 3.9%
EOG 2.9%
COP 2.2%
MRO 1.3%
PXD 1.2%
CHK 0.5%
OXY 0.1%
Definitely not top tier from an investors' perspective. Look at its history, this stock is a trade, not an investment. Just like its employees.
I sold some already and will probably sell more if the price goes above $85. There are definitely better investment opportunities. Not so sure about OP’s original comment that COP being top tier though. Don’t get me wrong, there’s one heck of a story to be told about how great the forward looking plans are. COP would probably be better described as being in the middle of the pack for most things and probably bottom tier on some other things. But I will give credit where credit is due, COP management are absolute masters at spinning a story for personal benefit, and it’s technical staff are mother f’ing PowerPoint gurus…
All O&G stocks are up. Don’t worry, COP’s brain trust will find a way to bungle this same as always. Just give it a few days.