Thread regarding Windstream Corp. layoffs

Independent rating agency's evaluation of Windstream's creditworthiness

"Fitch Ratings has assigned a first time Long-Term Issuer Default Rating of 'B' to Windstream…"

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-assigns-first-time-b-idr-to-windstream-services-outlook-stable-17-06-2021

Excerpts:

Revenue Pressures Continue: Windstream continues to experience pressure particularly in Enterprise segment due to declining legacy-products-related revenue and effects of competition. However, the strategic Enterprise revenue, comprised of SDWAN and UCaaS offerings, continues to grow in double digits and offset some of these underlying pressures. Fitch's base case assumes Enterprise revenue declines in high single digits in 2021 moderating to mid-single-digits by 2023 supported by growth in strategic revenue. Consumer revenues have grown over the past year, aided by sustained broadband customer growth over the past three years."
"High Strategic Execution Risk: Fitch believes there is a meaningful execution risk to the company's strategy to contain revenue declines and grow EBITDA over the next few years. While there are relatively low risk opportunities such as interconnection costs take-out that will support EBITDA, WIN's ability to gain residential market share through increased network investments will be a key driver for future revenue growth. In our view, Windstream has limited capacity to mitigate execution risks while still deleveraging."
"Cost Savings Support Margins: Windstream continues to optimize costs including realization of cost savings from interconnection expenses (i/c expenses) as it transitions away from legacy products. During 2020 and 2019, i/c expenses reduced averaging in mid-teens. WIN launched a three-year TDM exit plan in 2020 to migrate almost all its CLEC customers off of the TDM network to newer technologies. Fitch believes i/c cost savings along with additional identified cost saving opportunities will support EBITDA margins over the rating horizon."
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| 1671 views | | 3 replies (last July 3, 2021) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1bC6exSz

3 replies (most recent on top)

@2xxx+1bC6exSz

Your analysis from a staff employees perspective would get you an F. Most of us have just seen a mismanaged company since day 1 of the EarthLink merger. Things went from bad to worse after chapter 11. Post bankruptcy the LR5 post videos talking sunshine and rainbows when in reality NOTHING has got any better.

We all see more disconnects than installs and that is cash flow negative in my eyes.
Since we are no longer public I cannot speak to real numbers, my options are based on everyday real analysis not that of an executive Bean counter in some ivory tower in LR.

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Post ID: @2vtc+1bC6exSz

Your Cliff Notes would get you a C on the test

Fitch projects gross adjusted leverage (total adjusted debt/EBITDAR) will remain near mid-4x over the forecast. The improved balance sheet provides WIN financial flexibility to pursue increased spending on fiber deployment and gain market share.
The recovery analysis assumes that Windstream would be reorganized as a going-concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated. Fitch has assumed a 10% administrative claim. The revolving facility is assumed to be fully drawn.

In other words, no, WIN is not short on cash and even if it enters bankruptcy again, it would be another Chapter 11, not a 7

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Post ID: @2xxx+1bC6exSz

Cliff notes: DSL, POTS or any other TDM services don't make money.
The traditional model of CLEC/ ILEC is dead, MSP is the only revenue stream.

Consumer broadband is up because of a pandemic to provide temporary revenue relief. FTTH is expensive and cannot be completed overnight, this is a 3-5 year process at best. Elliot isn't having that.

Cash is tight and we cannot afford to make any mistakes if we do it's chapter 7.

WIN didn't use GAAP accounting and really p!ssed off Elliot to have their forensic accountants review the books.

The 3 year plan to pivot is too long to sustain cash flow and operate a business.

We will merger with another provider for synergy cost savings.
Cough ftr cough

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Post ID: @1uiz+1bC6exSz

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