EVs can get a boost from policy, but at the end of the day they will have to make sense economically in order for the conversion to fully happen and for it to stick. Meaning you won't be able to simply blame Uncle Joe or any one person, if the oil industry gets stomped by EVs and renewable energy in 10 years. If it happens, it will be because it was meant to happen.
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Not true. Conversion to EVs is driven by policy, not economics. Oil price would have to stay above $90/ bbl for extended period to provide any significant economic incentive for switch. But, oil prices at just $60/bbl generate good profitability for oil companies, and between $60-80/bbl generate huge profits without going so high as to justify EVs on an economic basis.
Just pointing out, short term thinking in that higher prices will help the company. Does it help us and other companies? Yes. It will get us a number of more dividend payments.
Long term outlook, not so good. Higher prices drives consumer choice to alternatives faster. Those with less competitive positions are generally the 1st to go.
None.
Holding RSUs is lots more fun than holding your breath LOL
You are truly clueless. Higher prices will help EM post higher earnings and cash flow. A simple fact. It is called mathematics. It is undeniable.
Higher prices will also help other companies post higher earnings and cash flow. Once again, math.
No comment whatsoever was made regarding how higher prices will impact competitive positions. None. Nada. Zip. Zero.
EVERY company is helped by higher prices. If EM increases salaries by 25% across the board does this help you and everyone else? Or do you whine because you still have the smallest house on the block?Puzzling how this basic truth proves so hard for you to understand. But then again, it makes perfect sense. LOL
@wra: please, please hold your breath until the stock reaches $85 and provide us with a Darwinian cleansing of the gene pool.
This is the most smooth brain comment I've ever seen. You truly are so stupid to believe that HR garbage that most people pass the PIP?
Most people won't pass, many are expected or forced to take the PIL to inflate the pass rate.
News flash for the truly “amazing” person who wrote “Oil price will help EM just like everyone else”. Not long ago we had a town hall with the president of our company; the good news was that the price of oil went up and EM is finally making a profit. The bad news, as explained by the company president, was that as the price of oil goes up, other companies with better portfolios will make much more money, the quality difference is going to be obvious again and we’re still going to be at the bottom of the pack among majors. Apparently, you want to be more catholic than the pope. If you’re a troll and you don’t work for EM, you’re the first pro-EM troll I’ve seen. If you’re a rank-and-file employee or retiree, you’re the most delusional person I’ve seen. If you’re a manager or a HR troll, you should be in the next PIP for failing to coordinate propaganda with our company presidents. Anyway, good luck waiting for the stock price to get to $85!
@jqp very well written and thoughtful. The message from our leaders that this year %MLRP is same as last year is crystal clear. They have clearly stated they are targeting same results, nothing selected people can do about it. Your plan sounds like a good one. If you have real skills your problem in retirement will be filtering and turning down requests to work.
You do realize that most of the 8% will stay if they actually work at it.
Talk about fake news chief.
Our group in the upstream took some significant cuts in the layoff; the survivors have been worked very, very hard. I could not believe it when I heard that the PADP process was going to be weaponized against the employees again this year. There is no more rank and file “fat” to cut. I’m a 26 year veteran of the company; I am now ashamed of it.
You trolls try so hard, but just don’t have the intellect to have a fact-based conversation. Let’s go slow to help you. What part of “Oil price will help EM just like everyone else” can you not comprehend? All companies benefit from price increases, at least in a tax-royalty fiscal regime. It is true that fixed price service contracts will not benefit companies on those concessions directly, but like most majors, EM has a variety of concessions across the world, and overall, higher prices help all companies. I didn’t say anything about competitive position as you imply. If oil prices double, EM has higher profits, just like Shell, CVX, etc. Understand now?
But since you seem to be interested in break-even prices, let’s take a closer look. If you had participated in benchmarking studies, or if you knew anything about analytics, you would know that comparing break-even prices is difficult at best. It’s like comparing development costs that companies like to quote. Are they on a NWI or GWI basis, which infrastructure costs are included, how much of the transportation costs are included, what about marketing costs and corporate overhead, debt, and on and on. Companies calculate these metrics in different ways, usually whatever basis makes them look best. I know companies change the basis from time to time, with some calculations being much more transparent than other times. So, I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in quoted break-even costs unless you have the raw data, which very few people actually have. Analysts do their best to get apples to apples comparisons, but there are always uncertainties.
Now, if you want to divide overall cash flow or earnings by total production, you have a number to bounce around, but it isn’t really a true break-even calculation.
As for the molecules analogy, this is for trolls who like to claim that somehow other O&G will “do better” with higher prices, but EM won’t. A bit of wit that clearly went way over your little troll head.
Now, anything else?
@1nor+1a4DEr2a are you drunk or what? Did you even read the question? You sound like one of the brown nosers mentioned here often.
@aki+1a4DEr2a Get help. Your posts suggest that you seem to be mentally ill.
“You can have your own opinions, but not your own facts. Oil price will help EM just like everyone else. The oil molecules do not know they belong to EM, nor does the price of oil.” Breakeven price is a critical factor here in determining whether an oil price increase will help EM relative to its competitors.
To answer directly the OPs question. Zero.
When I saw what was happening last May 2020 our family had long conversation on ours and my value system and mental and physical health.
Had developed and in process of executing exit plan for last 10 months.
Sold large house in Houston, developed clear financial plan, bought retirement home smaller but in same neighborhood as we love friends, community, and church.
We then reached ageement with our last college age child how we will finance last 2 years of out of state college and the plan for the child to work part time to help pay the way.
While I wanted and would prefer to work another 3-5 years to full age 60 with no discount of lump sum payout; our entire family agreed it is not worth mental and physical sacrifice to continue working beyond 2021.
We have been blessed that I was allowed to work for Exxon and then ExxonMobil for now over 30plus years.
That said, the last 3 years have been shameful and embarrassing experiences watching the “leaders” make their decisions to maximize their personal wealth via RSUs, EBUs, and Cash bonus payouts at the expense of the hard working individual contributors whom have given their lives to what was once the greatest company on earth.
10,000,000 RSUs awarded to exec and high rank non execs in 2020 per SEC filings is roughly $550,000,000 that could have been used to maintain 401k match for appx 70,000 employees at $8,000 average 401k match payout (roughly the 50% payout under an individual max 401k annual contribution limit).
The announcement last week of 8% mlrp for 2021 is the straw that broke this camels back; even though I won’t experience this, it is shameful and degrading behavior for what was once an honest organization that once looked out for its “hire for career” employees.
“We Are ExxonMobil” slogan makes me sick to the stomach every time I hear this uttered by managers.
While I have bled for the company for 30+ years, the only thing I can now do is vote with my feet by leaving in 2021.
I have always been well ranked and compensated as a technical person, but as we grow through the years we each earn an MBA in the real world of economics and market conditions; and more importantly who is able to create a winning team.
With the involuntary and voluntary of last year, and the announcement of 8% mlrp for 2021 assessment, the “team” will continue to take a losing position versus establishing itself as a leader and winner.
Good luck to all; as I told an acquaintance whom received a job offer from ExxonMobil in 2018, I could not advocate for them accepting a job with the writing I was seeing emerging on the wall.
The events of 2020 and 2021 now make my acquaintance and I have a great conversation over the occasional drink of what a great choice they made in declining the position.
Truly best wishes to all of the dedicated employees of ExxonMobil.
Confused or just can’t read? Where does that post even talk about break-even prices? Anyway, XOM’s strategy is now much more focused on getting break-even costs down, as evidenced by high grading the portfolio. Previously, they were chasing volume growth way too aggressively.
Another pointless point by the pointy head. LOL
Uh, that was 6 months ago. Stock is up about 50% since then, and has almost doubled from 52 week low. So, since you like to use data to make a deceptive point, that means DW has doubled the value of the company in less than 12 months, which would make him one of the top CEOs of all time. Still want to play this game?
@wra+1a4DEr2a You have your facts wrong.
Exxon’s break even price is higher than that of BP, Shell and Chevron:
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-exxonmobil-coronavirus-oil-demand/
Just seven years ago, Exxon was the biggest U.S. company by market capitalization. It has since lost roughly 60% of its value, with its market cap now at around $160 billion. WSJ, September 13, 2020.
Market cap is heavily biased by size (# shares outstanding) and the current day snapshot of stock price, so it does not always correlate to value, efficiency, management effectiveness, etc. Like anything, no single metric tells the whole story. GME is a classic example. Company is generally valued at $15-30/sh, so did the market cap mean anything when the stock was almost $500/sh? Clearly not. Just ask the guys still holding. The overall market largely drives market cap, much more so than a proper analysis of actual value for a single company.
Simply not true. Avg market cap for 2015 was about $325G, current market cap is about $240G, for a decline of about 25%. And that is with XOM stock at $57/sh, which is expected to increase to $85/sh over next 18 months by most analysts. Only needs to get back to about $65-70/sh to recover to pre-Covid levels. Current performance is largely a legacy of RT’s time as CEO. DW’s legacy will be defined largely by Guyana and Permian, which we won’t know for a few more years.
You can have your own opinions, but not your own facts. Oil price will help EM just like everyone else. The oil molecules do not know they belong to EM, nor does the price of oil.
Exxonmobil lost 60% of its market cap in the last 7 years and was doing very poorly even before the pandemic. EM’s Poor performance is because of its very poor management. If demand for oil and fossil fuel products increases, other oil companies will benefit, but EM will not miraculously recover from its decline, which predates the pandemic. Unless EM gets new management from top to bottom and cleans house, EM will not do well. The current management of bullies and flatterers are not capable.
Practically every analyst forecasts oil demand to be roughly flat until the world economy recovers from Covid effects over the next several months, then increase by 15% or so to 2030. Any significant declines in oil demand are likely at least 15-20 years out, and then only if renewables can breakthrough technical and economic barriers, particularly in developing countries. Passenger cars are currently forecast as the primary conversion target for EVs, but that leaves very significant oil demand for heavy trucking, airlines, shipping, etc., plus all of the lubes and chemicals. If you have traveled to developing countries, you would see that conversion to renewables is very far out. In fact, as developed countries make the eventual transfer, all of the conventional gasoline powered cars will be sold to developing countries, further delaying any switch to EVs.
So, the demand for EM products is not "horrible". Oil and gas companies have taken significant steps to be profitable at crude prices below $50, some as low as $35. The drop in oil demand and prices from Covid forced the industry to control capex and reduce opex, both of which are healthy changes, especially for EM who was spending way too much too fast.
If you want to leave EM or the oil and gas industry, fine. There will always be a plentiful supply of people standing in line for the pay and benefits that oil companies offer. But, if you think the industry is doomed, about to fail, etc., you are simply wrong. Just one major supply disruption, for which there are numerous credible scenarios, will drive profits much higher and more quickly than forecasted. EM actually has good days ahead in terms of profitability, even if you don't like current management, which is understandable. High oil prices lift all ships, so EM benefits regardless.
In life in general you have to look at your specific situation and make a decision based on facts. These facts are the company is in decline, the market for its product is horrible, it will continue to lay off and above all that career growth will.be very limited. This is not speculation, this is what we know. Now, if you have 20 years experience and making 300k you are likely golden handcuffed and little to no opportunities exist outside of the company. If you are younger you may think about expanding your skillset in more lucrative opportunities to build a career and advance. Advancement is important and the company has much less of those opportunities today than it did yesterday. Facts
@wuw+1a4DEr2a I hate to admit you're right, but for the most part, you are. Obviously the PIPers will also be shown the door.
I can't believe how brainwashed I was to take the PIP, get a pass thinking I had my get out of jail free card, to then get the involuntary a month later. I've used this analogy in another post, it really is like an abusive relationship. EM definitely grooms their employees for a long time, slowly making them feel like there is no better place to be, and that they owe so much to the company, that they should be so grateful for a job with EM. It's nothing short of psychological warfare. I mean, just look at the most recent brainwashing attempt with the training everyone received on how good the performance system is? Seriously, unreal they continue beating the drum on this c-ap.
I wish more people would get out, for their own good (could care less about the company at this point). I have a lot of prior colleagues that are totally miserable, but seemingly paralyzed to do anything about it. Like I said, abusive relationship material. Bizarre stuff, I wish the best for folks still toughing it out, not worth your health and emotional well-being.
High probability. They are only talking 8% on NSI so it's less than 1 in 10 people being let go (90% pass rate is just horse sh– spin from NSI HR organization)
90% Odds going in my favor with being ranked very well in previous years. If the spin fails I've enough savings, unemployment, and tech background to survive for year + with no additional income. I'll take my odds to continue milking the income while I can.
Only the smart ones leave on their own. In other words, no one on this site.
Truth hurts.
It depends. Im a lab tech and morale is at an all time low. Our positions in general only comes around once people are retiring at companies. The few in my hiring class are actively looking, including me. Saw a BASF position opened up and just seeing if I could get to the interviews/etc
I'm not talking about layoffs here, but about people walking away on their own because of how c-appy this place has become.