Let's face it, the days of fossil fuels are numbered. The end won't happen this or next year, but it's inevitable. I firmly believe that companies that have accepted that and that start to adjust right now and shift their focus will be okay in the end. But I'm not sure that's going to be the case with Exxon. Is it even doable?
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Agree with previous poster and adding that refineries are built to the existing product slate. Take away gasoline and diesel demand and you need capital to reconfigure them, so you can't use your assets anymore and your incumbent advantage vanishes. Plus, who will lend you money to build dying technologies when they can finance shiny high growth less risky stuff? Hitting a wall on all sides
Yeah agree with the commenter that Saudi Aramco (and NOCs in general) will win the price war as demand decreases since they have the cheapest reserves by far. Many people don’t realize that gasoline makes up about 50% of world oil demand. Diesel another 20%-30%. EVs will soon be cheaper to buy than ICE (internal combustion) vehicles while also having cheaper “fuel”, less maintenance, longer lives, and generally better technology (faster acceleration, quieter, more efficient, cleaner). By the end of this decade it’s likely that the majority of cars sold in many countries will be EVs which will blow a massive hole in the oil market.
Oil will be around for a long time but it’s going to be mainly used for jet fuel, plastics, chemicals - all of which only make up about 20%-30% of today’s oil market. Recall that even a 1% oversupply typically leads to massive gluts and $20-$30/bbl oil. That could be in perpetuity within a couple years (maybe starting 2023-2025 as EVs ramp up significantly).
@2yzh+19I0t7B1 It's not the size of the panel, it's the motion of the ocean.
One of the dumbest arguments out there is this copy and paste drivel about needing solar panels the size of Virginia etc. etc.
Anyone familiar with the technology knows its NOT about solar panel size and its all about the efficiencies and storage capacities. Both of which continue to improve over time.
Indeed the oil industry will never fully go away, because plastics etc, and some fuel demand will remain. But it will no longer grow, most likely will shrink substantially, and therefore be undesirable as an investment. Indeed the movement away from fossil fuels is not driven by the tree huggers but from the big banks, blackrock, state street etc. and smart shark investors. in the price war that will come, Aramco will win, not ExxonMobil - they have plenty of proven $10 oil. And oh, for all oil companies their stock price moves with oil price, that's why XOM is rising now, just do the plots. So yeah it won't disappear but won't grow either, slowly, but surely circling the drain. Not a fun industry to build a career.
Well said @1uft+19I0t7B1 - Pollution is a matter of scale. Gasoline automobiles were championed as a solution to pollution, replacing horses so the streets would not be full of manure. Now EVs are the solution to replace gasoline, but when there are millions of EVs there will be new environmental problems. Also PIPed last year and happy new.
XOM will be trading at $20 in 2027.
Fossil fuels will never go away - even if 100% becomes wind, solar, renewables and H2 etc, do not forget plastics, antifreeze, elastomers, lubricants, waxes and many other chemicals come from intermediates made from refineries to olefins/aromatics. I am amazed to see many people - not just ignorant/lying politicians but even engineers and scientists say that days of fossil fuels are numbered. Also please think - if batteries are used for all cars and homes, there will be severe shortage on Nickel, Cadmium, Lithium etc. - these rare earths are not easily available. Right now it is OK because not too many are using electric cars and solar+battery systems at home. So fossil fuels will never go away, oil companies including ExxonMobil will be around for a very long time. Stock will be back in the 70s or 80s. Having said this, I got PIPed last year, left immediately and I am so happy to be out of ExxonMobil.
We could but why would we want to?
Days are numbered? Really? How many of your friends and family give lip service to renewables but vote with their wallet to use fossil fuels. We aren’t going anywhere in spite of all the virtue signaling going on.
Exxon is doing the right thing staying the course in what they do best. Oil and gas as commodities will continue to see strengthening demand around the world. This will be the case until there is a lower cost of transportation available to the masses. As of now, the monthly cost of a local train or bus ticket is still more expensive than the monthly cost iof owning a motorbike in many cities I've lived and worked in Rich countries with misguided SJW agendas wont change that. Certainly, a little greenie talk is good for PR today, but, the technologies have a long way to catch up.
Hate to bust the 'we' bubble, but all other oil majors have taken steps toward the future.
Chevron, Total, BP, all of them. At least regarding fuels and fracking.
ExxonMobil has not.
They will go maskless 100% into the future.
And secede from not only the Dow, but the market.
Sold off in pieces like a broken-down mule.
The days of every company is numbered. No company lasts forever.
I swear environmentalists have zero concept of economics. It is completely possible to make money SHOULD oil demand decrease. How? Supply decreases at a rate equal to or greater than the demand decrease. Let’s talk about supply. Environmentalists / leftist governments have scared O&G companies away from investing in fossil fuel projects. This has happened most notably in Europe where those companies have almost zero prospects remaining. So when you hear BP, Shell, Eni, and Total talking about transitioning to green energy, it isn’t out of the goodness of their hearts, it’s because they don’t have any prospects.
No we can't. All we know how to do is to milk the existing Cash Cow, harder and harder until it's totally dry . We cannot build anything new and we no longer have the money to buy anything or anyone. If you want to do something more exciting go work someplace else
Are you for real?