Thread regarding Occidental Petroleum Corp. layoffs

Current value of warrants?

Topic only obliquely related to layoffs.

I’m a LOXY VSPer who got a bunch of stock when I left end September. Sold most of it, but held on to 3,200 shares.

Those 3,200 shares gave me 400 warrants. Each warrant allows holder to buy a share of OXY for $22 for a period of 7 years, ending in early August 2027.

Current OXY price is about $13/share and each warrant has current value of about $3.00. Would be interesting to see how NPV of those warrants is calculated. 7 years is a long time. 400 warrants worth total of $1200.

Value of warrants suggest to me that Chapter 11 is not very likely for OXY, at least by Wall Street sharpies.

That being said VH (and her puppets on EC) have to be ejected.

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| 4772 views | | 9 replies (last September 5, 2020) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+16LuSMM7

9 replies (most recent on top)

LOXY staff are deadheads
LAPC are the cream and we will re float this t–d of a company
Bring back Al Walker and watch OXY reach for the stars
Make Doug Lawler CEO and Brad Holly Ops Manager

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Post ID: @2zpt+16LuSMM7

Be a grown up and leave LAPC making the statement below. You know you can't find a job and you are stuck. With that attitude you deserve to be miserable for the next two years while you wait. What a weak employee!!

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Post ID: @1yzj+16LuSMM7

How were they screwed?

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Post ID: @1ppa+16LuSMM7

Stick your LOXY warrants in your a–
LAPC staff were screwed in this deal

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Post ID: @1uqn+16LuSMM7

Not sure where you are getting that Ch 11 is avoidable. It's just as feasible as of now as Oxy surviving the next 2 quarters if oil remains below $55.

Really the next few months of what happens with the puttable bonds will tell on just how stressed the debt is. If the pay early option is excercised... oxy will have to fork over a lot of their cash on hand and then the Buffet payments just dilute the shares even more at a lower price. This could easily continue the spiraling debt load to go faster and faster as the stock price falls. Then the magical credit line won't be available anymore and there it goes VH literally riding it down the drain.

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Post ID: @1jhb+16LuSMM7

I’m keeping my 3,200 shares and my 400 warrants for long term as I don’t need the cash right now.

There was an interesting SeekingAlpha article on the Oxy warrants (symbol OXY.WS) recently, comparing investing in OXY vs OXYWS, according to the Black-Scholes or Black-Scholes-Merton(?) model. Assuming same amount invested, starting OXY = $15 and OXYWS = $4, investing in OXYWS starts beating investing in OXY once OXY hits ~$32.
No determination in model of time value of money?

Today’s close OXY = $13 and OXYWS = $3 probably results in similar outcome.

Original valuation had OXYWS at $4.

Generally looks like smart investors are concluding that OXY will go significantly above $32 within time frame of ~7 years.

Only thing a bit disturbing about the SeekingAlpha article is they took the bait — hook, leader & sinker— with VH /EC’s corporate PowerPoint slide on how Oxy is Low Cost Leader, Low Carbon Future Leader, Most Sustainable, yada, yada, yada... SeekingAlpha sometimes so smart, sometimes more like SettlingForBeta.

Seems like exercise of warrants will be a bit dilutive to shareholders as new shares will be issued by Oxy. Since one warrant issued for 8 shares of stock, perhaps a minor concern.

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Post ID: @1vmc+16LuSMM7

We may have to pay taxes on the value of warrants given to us. The cost basis listed is much higher than the current price. If you sell them you can take a loss. If you keep them you pay taxes. Someone please correct me if I got this wrong.

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Post ID: @prw+16LuSMM7

Current Oxy and the warrants I got in my 401K were sold for around 15.00 and I got the cash. First I had extra shares then it went to cash and they bought more shares of stock. So in my 401k they are listed under stock now as opposed when they were first in there as a warrant. For me it was about 5K worth of stocks.

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Post ID: @dio+16LuSMM7

Keep the warrants please. Oil price will comeback to a better level. If you don’t need the money now or have better place to invest it, just leave it there. Bankruptcy is out of the horizon with Fed loans. Oxy should be ok for 2021 debt wall. Just don’t expect speedy recovery. Enjoy the horses!

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Post ID: @gmt+16LuSMM7

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