I think a 2nd wave will happen with virus that will impact Macy’s to lay off or shut down. No Xmas season , no Black Friday , no more commissions, more lay offs. , Now let’s say this doesn’t happen. You will run the risk of being laid off after Xmas. As biz keeps sinking. I think my prediction of Macy’s had two years left I’ll now up that to one year left and max of 1.5 years with a strong possibility of a Acquisition from some other company for the real estate value . Fast fashion is dead , one time use items dead , environmental type biodegradable will take out retail like the candle to the light bulb. It’s over. Take package and run
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Read the site rules, politics is not allowed here, there are plenty of other forums where you can discuss politics.
My husband and I have both been saying there will be another shut down. Macy’s will not make it
No one can say there will not be another shutdown. If the pandemic continues on as it is now you way the odds of businesses being allowed to stay open. Yes, this is serious business! Do you risk your life or go to work? States have control and will shut it down. We will all suffer the consequences of this for years to come.
I hope we will be fine
Just playing devils advocate here.
Too many variables outlined to conclude Macy’s going under prior to Christmas. Problem with the markets these days is that everyone thinks they are a virologist and know what will happen with a pandemic. Secondly, we are assuming governments will shutdown again. Companies have put in contingencies to mitigate a complete shutdown and have somewhat hedged this scenario. The government simply can’t afford a full shutdown otherwise you will have a debt explosion (I work in bond markets) across consumer (mortgages credits cards and student loans) and commercial that we won’t come back from with a quarter century. On top of that social security will be dry as a bone in the desert in the mid 2030s.
While I agree with the direction of the industry I don’t think looking for a job now (unless you code) or the new gig is recession proof. Switching from Macy’s to say Bed Bath and Beyond won’t do you any favors and is likely to put you at more of a disadvantage in reality. Let’s say conditions deteriorate and you have left the company to something similar - unfortunate thing is the company probably survived a few months without the new role you filled and by default, it becomes last in first out scenario (It’s a lot easier to cut someone you don’t have a history with). Remaining with the company and getting laid off you are looking at and average of 6 months plus vested options if they apply. I know this doesn’t seem like a lot and the stock is low but that’s a lot better than going to a new company and working for 4 months getting cut and getting 2 weeks severance. The bottom line is that you are generally better off looking for a new job when times are good or you in fact have been terminated.
Hard to say if a company will go under without looking at cash flow. Everyone let’s the overarching theme of brick and mortar lose site of reality. While Macy’s has been having contracting earnings they have not had negative earnings in years (I know Q2 will likely be different).
Again, don’t attack me, just playing devils advocate.
Hard to roll with the punches when they're all the s—er variety.
If it does, it does. Clearly we are not in control ... I’m rolling with the punches. I have a mortgage and a family to feed. I’ll be looking for a new job ASAP...
Agree with your prediction – beautiful analysis! I left Macy's pretty much due to same analysis.