Not just in 2020, but longterm? I'm starting to doubt it...
16 replies (most recent on top)
Nobody cares about OIBDA, this is not generally accepted accounting principles. Oh wait we're talking about windstream with their own unicorn and rainbows accounting principles.
Will the LR5 survive.... I certainly hope not and in the spirit of the holidays truly hope there is a just God in heaven that does not worry about OBTIDA
According to Windstream’s motion considered this week, the company has “advanced the Uniti litigation itself — recently defeating Uniti’s motion to dismiss almost in its entirety” and expects to “continue to prosecute the litigation to a successful This is definitely securities fraud as it is clear Windstream expected an adverse ruling and attempted to assist the bigger players, since the individual investors were prohibited from participating.
It was also no coincidence that Windstream did an asset sell for the exact same amount as the judgement but used an excuse concerning the adverse ruling to enter bankruptcy on that same lame excuse.
Also Uniti management was well aware of the fraudulent transaction spin off and fully participated thus they also are going to be held accountable for their contributions, the class action suit now under way is clearly an indication that Uniti is morally involved and will not escape unscathed.
OfficeSuite is 100% outsourced from engineering to repair. That team is in India. And its just a Mitel OS on Cisco UCS platform. Its not as proprietary as you would think. Those SIL servers drop just about every single week and have to be restarted. And the team in India has to restart them, there isnt even someone at Windstream that can handle something as easy as that. Outside Contractors using a shared login.....windstream obviously bought that SOC2 cert.
Twisted light (optical vortex) is cool but it has to be somehow modulated, then propagated/transmitted and with low attenuation:
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_vortex
It’s probably more useful to think of this as a property of light than a new form of communications.
It may turn out that it’s transmitted to the customer using fiber.
If it’s just beamed at the customer, then it’s going to suffer the same weather issues (fog, rain, snow) that have always limited the use of other “free space optics” schemes.
Actually they are correct. I believe it's called 'twisted light'. Much faster than fiber.
ILEC yes CLEC no. Officesuite is a great product if you remove the outsourced support and start caring about the rural ILEC customer that wants one point of contact that they can understand. Cheap labor is not always a bargain. Fiber to the prem is great we need to get faster and stop hiring contractors. Let the the BST's and splicers (that are left) do what they do best.
Absolutely not
"Do tell about these faster alternatives to fiber" - Particle accelerators. TT's delusion about the company being a software powerhouse has morphed into them also be on the cutting edge of modern physics.
@ oga
"Don't believe it."
"They are already testing faster alternatives to fiber. "
Like what?? Neutrino modulation powered by cold fusion?
With WDM you can get terabits out of fiber. Not that you'd do it now - 1 Gig is good enough in 2020.
"we don't have the money to lay it anywhere near the rate needed"
The negotiations with Uniti had both sides talking about Uniti selling bonds and stock to raise > $1.5 billion for broadband buildout for Windstream. Wall Street expects Uniti to be able to do this assuming the Uniti lease is ruled to be a "true lease".
FTTH costs new broadband companies about $2k/home passed on average where you have 35 homes/mile. That excludes drops to the houses which get made when service is established. That's enough for 750,000 homes.
Incumbents spend less if they have existing conduit or can overlash - then it's maybe $1k/home.
"Win has a DSL customer approval rating of 1.6 out of a possible 5."
Of course it is; the company has worked hard to get it that low.
But most Windstream residential fiber customers are very happy.
Check out https://www.dslreports.com/forum/windstream
Fiber customers will be very "sticky" customers.
"EVERY sector of the business is making less revenue."
Sure and it's only going to get worse staying on this path. But look at small rural and semi-rural ILECs - they're mostly making good money. It's doable even with average management. The good news is that Elliott will probably stick in some hard-charging, very talented people at the very top.
The bad news is that they'll be hard-nosed a–holes. Also, they'll be moving so fast they'll break some things that don't need breaking. They'll rapidly hire new managers below them and some won't work out. Stand the f— by.
"Stock is 12 cents! Not 12 dollars, not a buck twenty. 12 CENTS!!"
The stock has already been declared worthless – why are you even looking at the price? You're wasting your time.
Unsecured creditors will get some new stock; right now Wall Street's saying their total payout will be about 15¢ on the dollar. 2nd lien secured creditors will get stock and new bonds; they'll probably come out whole. 1st lien secureds will get new bonds and definitely come out whole.
"You will never get people interested in our stock or our service ever again."
Uhh … I don't know if you noticed but Windstream's got several million ILEC customers. They don't necessarily get a choice.
CLEC customers can leave but then that part of the business will probably get cut anyway.
Do tell about these faster alternatives to fiber
Don't believe it.
They are already testing faster alternatives to fiber. And besides, we don't have the money to lay it anywhere near the rate needed, just to keep up the appearance that we are serious.
Win has a DSL customer approval rating of 1.6 out of a possible 5. And that rating is only because there was no option to pick zero. And the company brand is snowballing downhill the longer they drag out chapter 11.
EVERY sector of the business is making less revenue.
Stock is 12 cents! Not 12 dollars, not a buck twenty. 12 CENTS!!
You will never get people interested in our stock or our service ever again.
People talk about cord-cutting and the death of ILECs. This is premature – fiber is the ultimate high bandwidth connection and will stay that way for decades. So there will be a revenue stream for Windstream for a long time from homes that either have fiber or that have fiber to a spot within several hundred feet. Or very fast fixed wireless in flat areas.
The copper ILEC stream will produce cash for at least a few years after chapter 11 ends.
Windstream and Uniti agreed up to a point that Uniti would fund a lot of FTTH and fixed wireless broadband after chapter 11. The talks broke down on exact terms plus other stuff. Whatever happens, I see Windstream expanding its truly high speed residential broadband (as opposed to terrible DSL over old copper).
Windstream has accumulated over $1 billion in tax losses that it can apply to offset future profits. That's worth a lot but it's hard, if not impossible, to use them if you sell the company to someone else or liquidate it. So this favors keeping at least some of Windstream as is.
Elliot Management, a private equity company, owns much of the secured and unsecured debt. They specialize in turnarounds. They won't officially control the company (i.e., own >51% of the new stock) but they'll be a much bigger player than other creditors and new shareholders. They'll effectively call the shots. I expect they'll:
• Put in their own management team
• Replace obsolete equipment in the ILEC and generally invest in fixing it up
• Shutter much of the CLEC business
• Use those loss carry-forwards
That's my bet - what do you other guys think?
Not as Windstream. After TT and crew get their KEIP bonus, they'll be out. Company will be sold off to private equity firm on the cheap to be carved up and sold off in pieces. It's worth more in pieces than as a whole. Lots of folks will lose their jobs, some will be absorbed by acquiring companies or perhaps held on in a new entity that keeps all the c-ap nobody wants. Thing that irks me the most is TT and crew never at any point in time owned up to the fact that they caused this.
My previous experience with a company in bankruptcy protection involved assets being sold to other companies with massive layoffs, then emerging as a smaller company with a very small product set followed by more layoffs and then shortly after that, being purchased by another company with more layoffs. We went from thousands to hundreds to a under a hundred to less than ten.
One thing interesting that I have heard mentioned here already was that during reorg, we actually reorg'd and we saw the company actually making changes and could see it morphing into something else. Its weird that no changes are evident and no final company is even remotely taking shape or being hinted at. Makes me wonder if there is a plan at all or just an excuse to draw things out as long as possible to line a few peoples pockets.
Not a snowballs chance in hell.