In all honesty, I thought we'd be gone before the end of the year. But it looks like I was a bit too pessimistic. We'll live to see at least the first quarter. Color me shocked.
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- I.P. Windstream 2006 -2020
We are still bleeding talent and dying from a 1000 cuts. Losing key technical people is hurting us, all of the new hires have little to no experience.
We cannot attract or retain talent. Take a look at the HR antics from a few months ago about Glassdoor ratings.
When companies are doing well highly talented people want to join an organization. From what I’ve seen there is a lack of highly talented customer facing employees left at Windstream.
I’ve heard they’re offering 1 year ramp for any job with at Risk pay.
Does anyone know if there's a d1
Or maybe move over to the Uniti side of the house?
"5G is mostly marketing now. Try getting a 5G phone. It will roll out over the next several years, mostly in dense areas and arenas. Good luck getting 5G in rural areas or even many suburbs for the next 5 to 10 years. It's not going to displace much Windstream ILEC business for quite awhile. 5G is probably going to use mostly fiber backhaul and 100,000s of antennas spaced <100 yds apart."
And fiber to the node & backhaul is key to a 5G network. The wireless companies (think Verizon etc) are currently trying to build out the metro area's first which has it's own complications because they need access to existing ILEC or CATV conduit systems or power company pole lines/conduit and the way permitting departments and leasing antennae space from property owners work, it will likely be 2030 before even the metro areas are turned up.
The ILEC business will stay. Whether it's owned by Windstream or another entity is a different matter. Maybe they'll sell some pieces.
@11qQHiHU-mcs:
5G is mostly marketing now. Try getting a 5G phone. It will roll out over the next several years, mostly in dense areas and arenas. Good luck getting 5G in rural areas or even many suburbs for the next 5 to 10 years. It's not going to displace much Windstream ILEC business for quite awhile. 5G is probably going to use mostly fiber backhaul and 100,000s of antennas spaced <100 yds apart.
Something to consider:
Windstream had close to a billion in tax loss carryforwards a few months ago. With more writedowns since then, they're probably worth more. The rules are technical but in most cases, only Windstream can use them. Windstream can't sell them. If the company is liquidated, they vanish.
Those carryforwards are worth a lot if the creditors can find some way to restructure the company to use them after bankruptcy.
All the bankruptcy pros involved in this mess are going to be well aware of their value.
Something else:
I don't think the hedge fund Elliott Management would have bought up distressed Windstream bonds if they didn't see some value at the end of the tunnel (and profit for folks that bought cheap like they did). Elliott is the biggest creditor and they'll be the "deciders" in the future.
My prediction: more pain coming – but no liquidation
Creditors will own the company early 2020. As 5G rolls out from the major providers Windstream will see all of their ILEC customers leave. Those customers have been dying to an alt provider other than Windstream for a LONG time. My guess is doors close in 2021. Tony and other execs are looking for a way to get the UCaaS/OfficeSuite and SD Wan over to Uniti so they can slide on over when the doors close. The shell game will continue
My new guess is that they shutter operations as we know it as on 4/1/2020.
UNITI vs WIN goes to court in early March after that it's all up in the air.
By then all of the bonuses will have been paid out and the well will
run dry. Best of luck to everyone over the next 6 months. If you
have not started looking start today. If you need to grow your skills
figure out where we need to be with your resume in the coming months.
In the next few weeks they will also publicly announce Q3 earnings. We lost a
major retail customer that will be disconnecting 7,000 locations. I hope the wall street
analysts pin down the executives to ask how they will make up that revenue.
The creditors will end up owning the company and sell the assets at firesale
prices to private equity to pickup the pieces of it's charred remains.
They didn’t really make it on their own. They had to file bankruptcy and gain protection to keep the doors open. I wouldn’t call that surviving. They’re also losing money every quarter and if the credit line was pulled the doors would shout.