$300 m revenue drop in Q2 to $2.7 b. Forecast is another $400m drop in Q3 to $2,3 b.
I think we have to go back to before we bought samsung hdd to see such low revenue numbers for Q3.
I do not know how we buy capital for hamr or pay dividend with this low rev
nand is getting cheaper
I am worried. anyone else worried or do we just hope 200 zetta bytes happens in 6 yrs?
Unleash the Ravi! It's coming folks.
Just a reminder you are not allowed to trade in options and sell your company stock short. Check the guidelines you agreed to. But if you have life savings that you like to invest in stock go ahead and buy the shares. The executive team would appreciate your help on the buybacks.
My team was happy that that stock is up this morning but that is not that story that is good for our jobs. Stock is up because it is implied there will be cost containment and cutting. Focus on "profitability and cash" means cutting since they cannot do anything about revenue. From the call transcript.
"We are navigating through these market dynamics with conservatism and managing our business with a focus on profitability and cash flow generation. As we go through this cycle of compressed exabyte demand, we are taking measures to control our costs and capital spending.
We expect total revenues in the March quarter to be in the range of $2.3 billion plus or minus 5%. Total exabyte shipments are forecasted to be 10% to 15% lower sequentially.
We expect non-GAAP gross margins for the March quarter to be at least 26% with the majority of the sequential change related to mix and manufacturing underutilization. This forecast is outside of our long-term margin range of 29% to 33% as we adjust our manufacturing plan to a lower build volume and to keep a lean inventory level. "
I will not spend all of that 5 cent stock move this morning. LOL. Need to look at options market and here is an article that will help from this morning.
Investors in Seagate Technology plc (STX - Free Report) need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Feb 15, 2019 $37.50 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Seagate shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Seagate is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in the Computer- Storage Devices industry that ranks in the Bottom 24% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, no analyst has increased the earnings estimates for the current quarter, while three have dropped their estimates. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $1.37 per share to $1.27 per share in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about Seagate book right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
Even with these terrible guidance the stock is up. Street seems to know something that I am missing. Deep cut? Did we promise any?
The forecast is revenue within 5 percent of 2.3b at 26 percent gross margin. This is about 2.18b revenue and gross profit of 560. Operating expenses at 360 leaves 200 to barely cover dividend.
I would expect a 5 to 10 percent 20 to 35 m cut to op ex to give STX some room this quarter. If you're not working with customers directly or in r and d and working on cloud products be mentally prepared.
Dies anyone think ponytail was fired because HAMR can be accelerated? HAMR is a major problem right now and difficult problems to solve.
Yeah, we should be officially worried. We might all be off seeking other / better opportunities though, so it's not the end of the world. Just a new beginning and an uncomfortable transition.
16 and 20 TB HAMR does not help. It is very costly and not breakeven until at 24 TB. WD and Toshiba are both doing MAMR and it will be profitable at 16 and 20. Cloud has been a high margin segment and for it to be breakeven or at best single digits margins will put a lot of pressure on financials and the beloved dividend that must be protected.
Block chain with IBM is not going to be meaningful to the financials
https://www.seagate.com/files/www-content/about/investors/_shared/documents/fiscal-q2-2019-supplemental-information.pdf
Are you referering to slide 10 in the above slides? I was surprised as well to hear about it. In fact I was impressed by the advancement in various technologies. 16 TB this year and 20 TB next year should help gain enterprise market share and increase the revenue and the margin.
They announced the dividend as well. So I think they are fairly confident this is just one quarter blip, probably due to China slowing and Trade war rhetoric.
If only HAMR can be accelerated to the market. Too bad real innovation takes time and the market does not have patience. Well we will get the revenue back up when HAMR and other future products are released. Read in the released report that we are working with IBM on blockchain development. They are the leading team in this field along with JP Morgan. Sounds like the CEO has the plan to keep expanding in to future and not stuck in the past.
Nah, not worried. It's been this way for the past 3-4 years at STX- a couple of good quarters followed by a couple of bad ones. Rinse and repeat. If todays results worry you, then you've been worried for the last several years and what kind of a life is that? Might as well turn your back on the rat race and go live in a tent up in the forests. Less stress and a more fulfilling life that way.
Where are the mosley fan boys?
The next year is going to be terrible. Worse If HAMR launch is not perfect
The call made me sick and the all hands meeting will make me sicker with the lies