Now, question to the site participants: do you really believe that this pathetic company will reach $100B USD revenue in Y2020?
If not, what revenue you project INTEL'll reach in Y2020? I should say, $50B USD seems fair estimation. Floor is yours!
15 replies (most recent on top)
@IuzN8PW-1hpi Jobs approached PSO to use intel fab and process to make an Apple ARM based processor. PSO is a bean counter and he like Balmer laughed at Jobs vision and thought it would never going to amount too much. So both ignored it till it was to late, common theme when a company is full of internal yes man and a terrible NIH syndrome. Google, Amazon don't have that cultural BTW. Innovators delema at its best as the two most powerful complainied were blinded by the next big thing.
Now both MS and intel are almost irrelevant and one will be dead in less than five years and possibly three
For all of you newbies: In 2006, Intel still had StrongARM/XScale line of ARM chips, before PSO sold off the division to Marvell.
In hindsight, it would have been such a "slam dunk" to develop a high-performance, low power version of that chip for the iPhone. Intel had everything, was uniquely positioned to be the chip enabler for the smartphone revolution. Instead, PSO chose to sell it off and develop the turd of the x86 mobile version otherwise known as Atom.
From Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale
XScale is a microarchitecture for central processing units initially designed by Intel implementing the ARM architecture (version 5) instruction set. XScale comprises several distinct families: IXP, IXC, IOP, PXA and CE (see more below), with some recent models designed as SoCs. Intel sold the PXA family to Marvell Technology Group in June 2006.[1] Marvell then extended the brand to include processors with other microarchitectures, like ARM's Cortex.
Please help me out here. What processor that was on the roadmap in 2006 would have won Apple?
I'll hang up and wait for your answer bkrunner
LOL he was on his way out and admitting stuff doesn't cost him ANYTHING.
Paul admitted his mistake. I find that honorable. I'm pretty sure if you wind the clock back he had plenty of advisors telling him not to take the deal. I don't really see many admitting their role in the decision. Maybe some of them are the same folks running the show now.
I can't recall a time since where the head bosses have just come out and said I made a big mistake and took their medicine.
What he really meant was 100B $ in revenue or marketcap which ever comes first
Intel is Maytag. It makes appliances stuff.
@IuzN8PW-cjh look at TSMC gross margins, BTW they have fabs running much older generations even 130nm, and larger but still generate good margins. So their aggregate GM is a reflection of advance nodes and a larger portion of non advance node where GM is lower, they do pretty well!
Intel is in big trouble as they are only running latest generation and when the last generation shows up they are DOA as they won't have anything in the pipeline. Even a premium company like Toyota has luxury / high end and the cheap stuff as an analogy, you can't live by advance node alone. Only Intel has had this business model for the past 20 years, all other companies have not.
China is the huge growth and only growth and to grow there you must play by their rules. Their serves will be non x86 for sure, the politics there simply won't allow a closed monopoly that isn't the Chinese's own, LOL.
There is single digit growth in the US business which was a huge shock as they were predicting double digit, and why the stock is down. If Intel can't goose the server to be high single teens growth over the next two quarter the layoffs in 2017 will be much larger than the 12K, LOL
Another interesting question is will we have fabs, what will the gross margin be and will intel be profitable?
The data center business is going to be pushed hard on margins by big cloud service providers.
China is the wild card. A significant portion of the data center business, especially the high end Xeon Phi business, is driven by China. Intel will need to cut deals (read reduce margins, collaborate in costly local production ventures, pay bribes, etc.) to keep its market share in China. And that's assuming that the Chinese economy doesn't further weaken (or that we get into a trade war with China).
Being a monopoly has its plusses and minuses...
They will be lucky if they are still making $40B-$50B by 2020.
100B, if Paulie would have accepted Apple's offer back in 2006.
I would also go for the $50B number. There are a lot of shifting forces going on here, and none of them are very quickly changing (at least by 2020):
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PC inexorably declines, albeit slowly. Form factors and features evolve. Creating stays with a notebook/desktop while consumption stays with tablet/mobile. Net decline.
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Datacenter grows. Sheer volume increases, ARM competition increases - underlying software still needs to be widely ported to ARM, however. Inclusion of FPGA on Xeon is very appealing, but won't make much mark until at least 2018/19. Net gain.
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NVM gyrates. As we saw in yesterday's earnings, the memory business is volatile. Intel is behind on 3D NAND, but if Optane gets anywhere close to the marketing promise, they may have something. Still, the unpredictability of the market and the self-cancellation of density/growth make this a flat-to-down.
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IoT - Intel's public discussions do not indicate any upcoming product that can touch ARM-based CPU/MCUs in nearly ANY scenario. The low-power and specific requirements (not to mention margins) are nowhere in Intel's capability, or particularly, mindset. And don't forget the security aspect - what happens to that story if/when they sell McAfee? Net decline.
Intel is not a growth company, but they won't go down the tubes anytime soon. They're just in purgatory.
The virtuous cycle is lost. Imagine what might have been if PSO had said yes to Steve.
Instead of the immense Fab14 and Fab15 at TSMC there would be two favs likely the each to size of f42 full and two more being built for 10nm and intel would likel have revenue of 65 billion or more.
There would have been no need for purchase and waste of billions on Mcafeee, Windriver, nor Altera.
Instead the virtuous cycle now belongs to ARMy and TSMC
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/paul-otellinis-intel-can-the-company-that-built-the-future-survive-it/275825/