Realistically, how long does INTC have before the remaining cash is too low to continue “business as usual”? Are we talking 4-6 quarters? 3-4 years?
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Night mare for someone with lots of deferred compensation. If Intel goes bankrupt, that money is gone.
The Intel machine is so large, so bureaucratic, so focused on DEI, so stagnant, so slow, so costly, so old, so limited in executive capability, so quickly losing market share that it seems the IFS may not happen.
Sitting on the Wrong Way. Bloated as ever.
I haven't seen them doing anything substantial.
This reminds me of the demise of the US Steel industry. The large, bloated Steel companies could not compete with cheap foreign steel. US productivity compared to rivals was terrible. Mini mills had some success, replacing the large, lumbering mega mills because the focused on specialty products and low cost.
Sound familiar? Intel is a lot US Steel circa 1980.
I will believe Intel can compete in contract manufacturing when:
- Intel catches TSMC on process technology
- Intel re-designs it's entire bloated 'copy exactly' fab model and finds a way to cut cost and streamline. Benchmark HC and cost and show me you can match TSMC.
- Intel hires qualified contract manufacturing execs... Stu Pann won't be up to this task.
Nothing short of re-thinking / re-designing the entire flow will work. Doing the analysis on the cash flow required, I don't see how it is possible unless Intel splits and the manufacturing portion gets much larger capital infusion. It may required nationalization of the Intel fabs by US government. Maybe the CEO should be careful what he asks for when it comes to government help... They may take it over.
There are surely some goods posts here. Manufacturing is only an anchor for Intel because the company is 10 years behind TSMC. Intel will not catch up and the government money will hurt Intel in the long run because will try to catch up and fail. This will be extra torment for the Intel employees and a gigantic global embarrassment for the government. The AMD example is the future for Intel and Intel will need to seek out a CEO as intelligent and savvy as Lisa S. I wish Intel good luck in the future; I would not want to be there now with the current situation.
don't count on Ohio hiring... that empty shell of a fab will be sitting idle for quite some time.
Intel doesn't have enough demand to fill the fabs it already has... $2.8B loss in Q1 included large factory underloading charges and the CFO says the company will put the brakes on CapEx in new fabs and stop at the shells until demand turns up.
Each new process notes costs exponentially more to bring on line and with finer geometry you don't need as much capacity... at the same time, the margin $$ per wafer is going way down as prices fall and costs go up. This is not a healthy business model. AMD recognized it long ago and got rid of the manufacturing boat anchor.
Also, the key drive to small process nodes isn't Intel, it is ASML EUV... and Intel adopted that too late and doesn't have enough cash to buy the machines.
@rns...lol...its time to replace oregon hillbil--es with ohio hillbil--es...i love the poorly educated!
the sky is the limit
I JUST CAN'T FCKING WAIT !!!
Put it this way, I’m planning to bail by early 2024 unless I see signs I have to do it sooner.
No runway. Just a tu-d floating down an open sewer of a river.
Code red situation.
Cash and short term equivalents = 27.5 B
In Q1 Intel had -1.785 operating cash flow and minus $10.5 B investing cash flow (like Fab property plans and equopment)
So assuming a repeat of Q1 Intel had just over 2 quarters before cash is gone.
However, Intel raise 10B by selling bonds in Q1, so if Intel we're to keep adding debt it could live to fight a while longer... But this is stupid and dangerously adding leverage just as Intel's entire strategy is high risk.
Good luck to the CFO because Manning this is a shitstorm.
Business as usual is already over. Continual pay cuts and mass layoffs are the new norm. Only the top third world nepotists and their families will be spared.
Intel in-house silicon design will be liquidated by 2030 at the latest. Enough time for all the Indians to plan their retirement.
3-4 years.
Let’s be real, with the brain drain and no competitive advantage, the odds are pretty slim that IFS succeeds.
Best case is a spin off and slow death like GloFo.