It amazes me that (some) employees at Charles Schwab do (not) even understand basic U.S. economics -
The (2) contributors for a Major recession when they do (and have) happened during U.S. economic-financial history are Unemployment, and a Major Downturn in consumer spending; currently (70%) of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as shown in the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index).
2025 - Worst year of job growth since 2020, just reported.
2025 - Worst year of layoffs since 2020 (1.17 million), just reported.
2025 - The seven (7) U.S. debt bubbles at the highest level in U.S. history with (all of them) at (record) levels, just reported.
The (7) Debt bubbles - Household spending, mortgage loans; credit card debt, automotive loans; student loans, stock purchase financing; and finally the U.S. National debt.
The U.S. National debt (currently) is at $38.6 Trillion (and rising) with Interest paid per year by U.S. taxpayers at $968.0 Billion to outside Investors who finance it per usdebtclock.
Currently (skewed) U.S. GDP (positive data) is from AI corporate infrastructure spending, and higher income household spending.
Both of those things will (not if) revert Downwards over time impacting U.S. GDP negatively.
Note - The stock market, and U.S. economy are (not) the same thing.
It is called Divergence that (currently) exists between them (for now).