After over a year of not having them, forecast calls have resumed. Needless to say- the ET has been “surprised” at the losses being forecasted- to the point of not believing the managers forecasts, and they still do not have access to a lot of reporting that would have alerted them to the 10s of millions being lost. This reorg is a massive miss. I don't see in what world an IPO will happen. Who would invest in this dumpster fire.
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@qg I’m drinking and doing gummies the entire time in Vegas. I’ve checked out months ago and actively interviwing.
This entire thread is like watching the blind lead the blind. IPO is on, IPO is off, yada yada yada. It makes absolutely no difference to anything that is going on. Complete foolishness focusing on this garbage. One way or another, some other set of id--ts will take over and want their pound of flesh. Quit now and save yourself the headache.
The IPO is possible, but not guaranteed. The most realistic outcome is a delay, not a cancellation.
Scenario A — IPO happens in 2026 (30% likelihood)
This requires several things to go right at the same time:
Underwriters (Citigroup, Morgan Stanley) believe the market will support the valuation
Apollo + KKR + Apax + Searchlight all agree on timing
SEC filings move smoothly
Ed‑tech market stabilizes
Cengage shows EBITDA improvement
This is the “clean exit” scenario PE firms want.
Scenario B — IPO delayed to 2027–2028 (50% likelihood)
This is the most likely scenario because:
Revenue is flat
Debt structure is complex
Market conditions for ed‑tech IPOs are weak
PE owners may not get the valuation they want
SEC comment cycles can drag
Delays are normal for PE-backed companies with complicated histories.
Scenario C — IPO scrapped entirely (20% likelihood)
This happens if:
Market conditions worsen
Underwriters advise against proceeding
PE owners decide a private sale is better
Cengage misses financial targets
The IPO narrative fails to attract institutional investors
If scrapped, PE will pursue a sale to another PE firm or a strategic buyer.
Forecast? Thy never get forecasting even close to accurate. This is why they give us our targets in August or September. So they can cheat and look at the actual sales in Real time and then Forecast. I see so many names inside of my salesforce from colleagues editing the opportunities. ET thinks having numerous sources and numerous hand updating opportunities will help them forecast correctly Well guess what? all these hands do a worse job than reps who know exactly what's happening in the field.... we just don't report it because we choose not too. LOL... ET (MH and NK) really don't understand this aspect of the salesman game. Because they are smarter than everyone in sales. BUT THEY HAVE NEVER SOLD ANYTHING ..... and their souls are just like the IPO not worth much.
They want their money and so do the Banks. Banks wrote off 4 Billion dollars and now its time to call in the loan.
All recent reporting indicates yes — they are actively preparing for an IPO.
Multiple independent sources confirm:
Cengage has hired Citigroup and Morgan Stanley to lead a $500M IPO, targeted for H1 2026 .
The IPO is described as “a major exit for private‑equity investors,” including Apollo, KKR, Apax, and Searchlight .
Articles repeatedly state the IPO is being weighed, planned, or considered, with timing “subject to change” — but no reporting suggests it has been canceled
I project the IP has not been canceled. Apollo is exiting and that is a FACT. Apollo stepped in after the merger wasn't approved due to the DOJ. Cengage does not cash to pat Apollo and they can not find another investor, so the IPO is the way out. Maybe the IPO will be a flop and only generate 300 million. and the 500 million that wished for But they Apollo is exiting. Facts!
I forecast more open drunkenness in Vegas because we don’t care. This production is only good for the newbies who don’t know anything yet.
@f4 these fools have no shame so will they even feel uncomfortable . They probably think of us as less thans who obviously can’t recognize their genius.
I can’t wait to hear insider reports from the summit. I predict lots of bluster and hope MH has to grit his teeth the whole time couldn’t happen to a nicer Davis guy.
I forecast an ET uncomfortable in Vegas since they are hated by employees.
There was an article about this in the WSJ yesterday. They're called "zombie funds." PE firms bought in too high and can't get out.
@a6 they aren’t coming for their money. They’ve held cengage entirely too long thinking they’d get their money back- they should’ve taken the loss in the early 2010s but were greedy. Now they need to offload Cengage ASAP because it’s been 20 years and become a massive liability. They’ve lost billions on Cengage. Mostly because of the horrible ET team they’ve had at the helm.
I think this is the plan. Private equity are coming for their $, I don’t think this company will last much past September
Bef