https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/03/shell-scraps-construction-of-biofuels-plant-in-rotterdam
28 replies (most recent on top)
@1d4
Wonderful, if you see these opportunities and pitfalls you should strike out and start your own company. Please out compete Shell, you make me believe it wouldn't be too hard for you. Best of luck and good fortune to you!
@1ax
Yes, I "even believe" that I see it before hand. I see it happening right now. I see the numbers that are "massaged" to get a deal over the line--to give enough cover to the people who want to make a deal. I see that projects are coded to both maintain secrecy externally and internally from technical review.
"No one can possibly know" is cowardice at best, fraud at worst. Enjoy your recognition awards a month after signing, though. Smugly repost the deal announcement on LinkedIn.
what’s funny is that’s how trading has always thought it was. they won’t even notice a difference lol
@190
Amazing how many people could have predicted the outcome of an event and explain it in detail after the event has occurred and they have had time to think about it. Those people can often point out how blind a person must have been not to see it coming. Not ironically very few can do that before the event occurred. Maybe you even believe you knew beforehand.
i doubt it. or at least, it depends on what you mean by “strong demand”
solar and batteries are amazing and only getting better. period.
energy demand will grow. but it is far from a given that oil and gas will be picked to answer that demand. what always happens when a new energy source comes out that is superior is that the legacy sources is that the legacy sources fade into irrelevance when measured as a fraction of the energy mix
for example, there are only 40,000 coal miners in the US but sure some coal plants exist
so if the plan is slowly declining stability and decent demand based on the past then sure - 2050 is a gonna be a good run
but as an investor O&G looks really unattractive to me when i know i can make a run at a much more important class of energy company which has actual room to grow and not just margins bouncing around in a tiny window with a low ceiling
@197
There will be good and bad years but they'll make $200+ billion in revenue per year out to year 2050 at least. I think very few net zero targets for large players (USA, China, Europe, and Fortune 500 companies) get met and oil/gas will continue to see strong demand.
@191 Shell literally is about to become an Upstream/IG and Trading house. That is all the company will be in about 5-10 years unless leadership changes. Shell has hardly any downstream assets and most of the ones they do no one wants to buy because shells lack of investing in those sites makes them unattractive.
@190
Shell is not going anywhere. Shareholders and activist investors will change the management team before that ever happens. You're talking about a company that has been around for over 100 years and has deep ties to governments and intelligence agencies.
@zh
"We were led to believe..."
Get your head out of your a-s. If you couldn't see that BG was pumped up by your own people, that's on you (and bvb). We reward deal making, not good deals. The people who make the call on BG, Sparta, and data rooms today are not evaluated on technical evaluation of fields or portfolios, they are rewarded for signing a deal. Yay, a check mark on an EVP's GPA! 2.0 IPFs and special recognition for everyone!
We are going to get the future we deserve, which is sinking production, rising UDC, and eventually being stripped for parts by a better company.
wael isn’t making mistakes
he’s doing exactly what aligns with his personal financial incentives and completely aware this company will be a at worse off in 5 years due to this
same as the rest of the EC
doing nothing but buying your own butt to wait for the supposed “new market normal” to settle is not a plan. it’s a stock bump hedge and a thorough chickening out
Imagine that BvB wanted to grow Shell and stop the decades long shrinkage. Exploration and poor management failed to organically grow. So, BvB buys BG... but the world changes and oil and gas prices fall. And BG wasn't as good as we all (including BvB) were led to believe. Still trying to grow and create a sustainable Shell he emulates NextEra energy, which at the time was actually valued more than Exxonmobil. So BvB bought windmills and solar panels. It worked for others, why not Shell? He was neither good nor evil. He did things to actually grow Shell. Those windmills and solar panels, yeah they're very -very thin margin businesses. The electric fueling stations... those loose money. Did it all work out... not even close to as well as planned...Ouch!!! Hindsight can say that those are the wrong choices especially the purchase of BG. Spending $13 billion/year on buying solar power vs buying Shell shares to cancel... I'd buy the solar power.
Wael has elected to buy $60 billion of Shell shares just to cancel them and mask the shrinking business. What is worth more thin margined solar or nothing... at least the solar still exists. As for the purchase of an other company, I just hope its a good company instead of a floundering company hoping for "synergies".
Wael vs BvB... BvB wins by my scoring. All the Exxonmobil, Devon, Pioneer, and Chevron Ceos beat them both by a long distance especially if you measure it in money for the shareholder. So yeah, BvB made mistakes that linger. Wael is making worse mistakes and continues to do so.
So basically BvB became CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the world (and got rich doing so) but really he wanted to be CEO of a non-profit or Renewable Energy Co (so his teenage daughter would be proud of him) and in the process ruined a great company.
Then on top of that he was rubbish at seeing the future and setting a vision that would work even within that space (the literal job description of a CEO) and further damaged the company by stacking it with useless unprofitable business …
So yes we are still paying for his terrible management
yep. weird phrasing but actually just completely true
imagine betting on carbon credits taking off and then the political climate shifts and trump is in office again
You’ve written an unpopular post…but truth is often disliked. You’re 100% spot on.
BVB tried to transform Shell into something virtuous. If you believe that burning fossil fuels results in climate change, and that the global ecosystem is unable to absorb the rising CO2 levels with devastating results, then something had to change. Oil cos need to make deals with governments around the world that violate human rights. Their activities cause environmental damage everywhere they are conducted. Of course, selling Shell's "dirty" assets to someone else who will do the same things, perhaps even less ethically, improves nothing in the short term. But if that money is taken and used to chart a different path, in the long term, maybe Shell could make a difference ... even if that path necessarily leads to Shell's own extinction because green energy will become less and less profitable as it scales.
So where did BVB go wrong? First, green energy is unprofitable even in the short without subsidies. That means Shell's business must must align with political priorities that swing wildly. But Shell needed to be able to bullsh-t its investors that it had a path to profitability so it took the money. Second, green energy has technological hurdles that must be overcome or it will fail. Think batteries, wind and solar variability, and the grid collapse in Iberia. Third, Shell's chosen green energies will NEVER meet its net zero goals. They generate way more carbon, and environmental damage, than they save. Shell should have directed its efforts into other technologies that have hurdles that are likely to be solved and then would be closer to carbon neutral. Fourth, the green energy movement that Shell tried to lead, was a scam that US voters revolted against, with the EU soon to follow as their citizenry tires of their inflated energy prices and the effect on their economies. Think ESG scores and greenwashing by claiming credits for trees that you have cut down yet, and net zero promises with lots of fine print, and buying Russian oil but we're sorry you caught us, and Davos elites flying in on their private jets and then proposing things like good citizen scorekeeping (hey, the CCP is doing it, why shouldn't everyone else) and limits on meat consumption and dozens of other ways for the elite to maintain their wealth and power over the miserable plebians.
Shell aligned itself with the left, the only ones who opened their arms (not including the "stakeholders" who sued Shell in Dutch court and chased it out of the country), but the left went too far. The left that gained control (and still has control in places like GB) wanted to tear down the colonizing racist power structure and replace it with a society based on intersectionality, DEI, gender fluidity and all that entails, open borders, politically motivated extended economic shutdown (except for the politicians at their own parties), and so on. There was social backlash that resulted in political reversals and Shell lost on all of its big bets.
@k3 I think shell’s fall from grace really came when they started showing they valued managers more than those with technical expertise. If you listen to all the town halls, leaders think they can just offshore JG4/5 roles overseas and nothing bad will happen. Honestly, I am amazed we have not yet blown up a site in the last few years.
in five years people will think you are psychic
Shell is utterly and completely lost. They are very very near the start of a death cycle. Currently they are living off the gains made 15-20 years ago, cash flow is still good, we still have (had) great technical know how …
Unfortunately, if you look at every single buisness plan across the Shell group we are about to fall of a cliff. The jewel of Shell - the GoM has 5 years (and that’s with Sparta … 🤦🏻♂️) before steep declines kick in. Other areas are worse off. Once that happens you start to see shrinking cash flow pretty dam quick and then the ability to buy other companies or stock evaporates.
On the technical side we are systematically purging the company of any one that knows what the he-l they are doing and replacing them with mediocre DEI hires or incompetent low cost people from the Sub-continent. Not to mention the Arab mafia that is emerging …. With all this the id--tic self serving Dutch seem pretty good!
Within a decade Shell will merge aka Exxon Mobile style but Shell will be Mobile in that deal.
There is a window of a few years where they can right the ship but my bet is we will get a finance female as the next CEO and that will be the death blow …
@f1
"Both staff and shareholders are disappointed about Shell, so not sure who is actually winning here?"
Chevron and Exxonmobil are winning. Shell staff, Shell leadership, and Shell shareholders aren't doing as near as well. BP is even worse. (And somehow that is the rationale for Shell to buy BP?)
Back to the OP's point, their fallen hero BvB spent money and tried to make a green legacy... if you looked at it in terms of energy converted to electrons, renewables actually got to be about 10% of the whole Shell business, but used even more bandwidth in terms of staff and was breakeven to a very small profit... And BvB bought BG for a high price given the timing the deal closed. But still it is WAY -WAY less than the $60 billion Wael spent to buy and cancel shares and lost through divestitures at fire-sale prices. But he actually grew the business and profit during his tenure according to the Shell annual reports.
In the posts below or earlier, I'm not sure if the vitriol is because someone correctly pointed out that compared to Wael, BvB lost less money even with the green wash and BG purchase or if it is the lack of a hero or religion to emulate. Maybe they're despondent that their heros have gotten progressively worse from Jereon to Peter to BvB to Wael. Maybe OP doesn't like people quoting facts about Wael? Under Wael Shell shrunk the business and massively in terms of production and profit.
I really hope that they better themself or themselves it is hard to tell if it is OP each time. Really, you don't have to trash a specific religion even if you are atheist. But I feel for you...according to REM everybody hurts sometimes, this might be your time. Take comfort in your pain... also REM same song.
Both staff and shareholders are disappointed about Shell, so not sure who is actually winning here?
@e1
Thank you! I agree.
"an intelligent board would incentivize long term planning. " And
“Management incentives need to align with the company and the market”
The problem is that we have and will likely continue to have a streak of self-enriching autocrats. It isn't BvB only... it is all of them and Wael too! None of them are rewarded for Shell making it another 10 years, so they don't plan for it. It is like eating all the harvest without saving any seeds for next planting season.
@dx+1k487znjs I'm sorry that you don't have any heros. I suggest religion or you find at least a historic figure that you can admire. Then seek to improve yourself.
“Management incentives need to align with the company and the market”
preach
currently absolutely nothing matters except the stock going up, and so YL is doing nothing but cuts and buy backs. an intelligent board would incentivize long term planning. but we either don’t have one, or we have a bunch of crooks who are open to trashing the future as long as they get their bag before being replaced by DEI hires
BVBs problem was there were incentives for low carbon. It has ruined us. YL has had to cancel projects and shut down stuff from that era left and right
I suppose I should strongly disagree with the Shell People Survey item on “Shell Is Well Led.”
@bx
Alright, don't get ridiculous. The fact that I criticise another example of BvB as an abject failure doesn't mean I had put they/themon a pedestal and they/them fell off it. No tears of disappointment, you weirdo. I gave up on heroes long ago, especially in company life. The target is now just someone who doesn't damage the company for his own ego or social engineering.
Management incentives need to align with the company and the market. Certain massive waste is not evidence of that. Maybe BvB was just the product of the times and the very strange Euro political environment that Shell had to run away from. The problem is that BvB and Shell thought they mattered more the market and could change it and force change.
Wow! I know that you think and feel that BvB did a poor job. But alas, the issue is that the top is always like that. Remember Peter Voser... Every body apply for your jobs, we can't have you just working we need you working and worrying about your job. Is Wael any better? Sell stuff for no money... just to get it off the books. Shell paid them to take Aera... terrible deal. Permian sold for 60% off. Sell Appalachia for 90% off, give away refineries... Even if you go way back Jereon gave sable away. Plus the scandals!
you're looking in the wrong place for a hero.
that’s the thing about all of the green investments shell made
they have very low barrier to entry (solar, sustainable fuels, biogas) or no profit (offshore wind, EV charging, being an electrical utility).
the questions they needed to ask were “why would we be good at that?” and “do we have a competitive advantage”. well, after profit. leave it to the europeans to not even think about profit lol.
anyway, that thinking would have lead to geothermal wells which is about to take off. geothermal wells coma one i actually hire a ton of shell wells talent.
it’s kinda crazy that his company has been led by buffoons for nearly two decades. current ceos doesn’t have a plan besides cut costs and buy back stock to disguise the utter decline of our assets and the industry
"the plant would be 'insufficiently competitive' to meet demand for 'affordable, low-carbon products'" So it won't make a profit for Shell's early money! What happens when all the d-mb money follows, probably with later-gen technology, and drives down the prices of output? Shouldn't this have been thought thru before throwing money into a hole? That's exactly what will happen to all of Shell's green energy projects. The only thing "green" about them is the government tax breaks. Seriously this company is doomed to fu---dness. What was the environmental impact of this terminated project?
“This was a difficult decision, but the right one, as we prioritise our capital towards those projects that deliver both the needs of our customers and value for our shareholders.” So Shell is FINALLY going to think about what customers and shareholders want, instead of just big paydays and free passes to Davos events for the c-suite! Maybe next, Shell will stop sh-----g on its employees !
"the plant would be 'insufficiently competitive' to meet demand for 'affordable, low-carbon products'" So it won't make a profit for Shell's early money! What happens when all the d-mb money follows, probably with later-gen technology, and drives down the prices of output? Shouldn't this have been thought thru before throwing money into a hole? That's exactly what will happen to all of Shell's green energy projects. The only thing "green" about them is the government tax breaks. Seriously this company is doomed to fu---dness. What was the environmental impact of this terminated project?
“This was a difficult decision, but the right one, as we prioritise our capital towards those projects that deliver both the needs of our customers and value for our shareholders.” So Shell is FINALLY going to think about what customers and shareholders want, instead of just big paydays and free passes to Davos events for the c-suite! Maybe next, Shell will stop sh-----g on its employees!