Hear a lot of young people say they’re leaving O&G. Understandable, but if you can hold on til mid-‘21 I think you’ll be surprised at rebound. It’s cold comfort now, but a vaccine will happen, Demand will surge, & industry will recover. Hang in there.
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Doubt it will ever rebound to what it was. Sure it won’t go away but rebound will be surviving.
Well Exxon practices might be frowned upon but there is nothing illegal about them. I think it is going to exactly the same in any similarly sized large successful organization.
They are a private company operating on maximizing profits. Your high compensation is reduced profits for them. Offshoring or replacing high pay older employees with low pay fresh recruits and getting interns to do some of the work is one of the strategies towards this end financial goal. Not to mention the new recruits have new ideas and ways of working and using new technologies in novel ways, it sort of refreshes the organizational culture before it falls way behind the times.
Job security is virtually non-existent in a capitalistic society, even in Japan it is a thing of the past.
I think that those that do stay in O&G will certainly not stay at Exxonmobil. After seeing on here how Few senior employees actually get to retire from XOM. Between a career long meat grinder and seeing sr ppl who survive for 20+ Years in the ranking to just be cast away. It’s not worth it.
@1pdh+17onLFmY Bravo, nicely said. I bet MOST of the young ones at XOM are now thinking of the same, and for the right reasons.
There are a multitude of great financial reasons to (try to) ride it out, but what this doesn’t take into account is that a large majority of millennials:
1) believe, with good reason, in the decline of oil and gas
2) want to contribute to a cleaner future
3) do not want to live in Houston or refinery town (huge for me)
4) are already jaded by a company who they’ve seen treat seasoned career technical professionals get thrown to the curb; continue to force rank despite putting lipstick on the assessment pig this year; and have a ton of other shady practices
5) have NO PROBLEM switching companies after getting experience.
There’s a strange culture at EM where you’re expected to stay your whole career, to the point where I don’t even feel comfortable talking to colleagues about leaving. To me, that’s a sign I gotta go (among MANY other reasons!!)
I will leave oil and gas, even with a paycut, because I no longer can stomach profiting from causing climate change
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-exxonmobil-coronavirus-oil-demand/
and this was 6 months ago. The situation has only become worse.
Not only BP. OPEC also cut their demand forecast and expect demand to peak by 2040. Most estimates expect a peak in 2020-2040. So what is EM's long term plan?
Looney is doing a better job than DW.
O&G is going the way of coal. And what will survive in XOM when we emerge from the pandemic will be concentrated in low-cost BSCs. If you’re under 40, don’t fool yourself into thinking you can have a lifelong career at XOM or even in O&G. Don’t plan for failure. If you have the skills, tech and renewables are the future.
What is the industry that is always stable and pay as much as o&g? I know things are looking bad and renewables are the future, but I would never work for a renewable energy company as a young engineer!! Engineering graduates who work for renewable energy or utility companies are paid half of what people are paid at EM with much worse benefits and job stability. Even a lot of non-FANG tech companies pay less than EM does (but probably has a better career growth), and getting into these companies is overcompetitive. In 2019, EMIT received 2000+ resumes for its "tech" positions. If you study software engineering or data science, you will most likely end up in another EM-like company unless you are really good and have done these works before.
I don't see myself working in the o&g in the long term, but I would rather work here, save a bunch, and find what I really want to do than go to some sh–ty company with a paycut just to get out of o&g. Try to hold onto the job until covid is over and see how everything plays out.
BP is going into the garbage just like brexit is damaging the UK. they all are looney over there.. I would trust anything they say with a 10 ft pole that's how bad it is.
NG is still projected to grow up to 2050, but the margins will be low and there is a glut in supply. Oil price is very unlikely to go back to over $100/bbl. By some projections, peak oil has been reached (BP). Peak plastics is expected around 2027. Only about 8.4% of plastics have been recycled in the US (NPR reporting), and the shift to PHA will likely accelerate, as regions (EU, ...) ban single use plastics. EM is the only oil major that does not invest (at all) in solar and wind, relies on algae biofuels for its renewables portfolio, and has no discernable plan for the future. A company that relies only on oil, natural gas, and a chemicals portfolio based >90% on PE film, is not likely to prosper over the next few decades. Also look at the April 2020 Bloomberg article; the debt and revenue charts in the last decade are telling.
Post from TheLayoff.com
By sharing IEA’s prediction, my point is our intuition based on mass media is much more biased and off compared with IEA’s analysis.
I’ve never been so motivated to pay off everything as quickly as possible. This uncertainty is very stressful. The sooner we know the better off we’ll be.
Since 2010, XOM return, including dividends, is negative. You’d have been better off leaving your money under your mattress.
This is the dialogue that needs to occur here, so we can all be aware of the risks/opportunities in the road ahead. That said, I have a very different opinion from OP.
Agree with LNG having a sound growth profile once COVID passes, but natural gas is a small fraction of our current portfolio and we don't have any clear advantages versus peers.
Eventually carbon regulations will become more stringent and put significant pressure on the heritage O&G portfolio. If we haven't made sizeable investments to grow renewables we won't have the skillsets/projects needed to offset carbon emissions and will be at a huge economical disadvantage.
Microsoft just announced work from indefinitely, many more companies to follow because it saves them money. Commercial real estate will tank along with energy usage meanwhile renewables are increasing. Single use plastic getting outlawed. In the meantime we double down on the past. Maybe the op is right but the market sure does not have that opinion, we shall see!
Eia is way over predicting nat gas usage.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2020%20Full%20Report.pdf. Take a look at slide 5 - crude oil may plateau in the next couple decades, but natural gas may grow as fast as renewables. Lot of negativities on this site is just shortsighted childish venting. I worry about layoffs too, but I do believe that our industry cannot decline that fast...
If possible, pivot your career to renewables. Stay abreast of the latest tech.
“Demand will surge and industry will recover.” Keep in mind times were not great before COVID. The 10 year average annual return for the S&P 500 is 14% and only 1% for ExxonMobil. That would have been unthinkable in prior decades. COVID made the situation far worse which resulted in the disguised layoff we are now seeing. When COVID eventually recedes, the industry will return to an environment (seen since 2014) in which the multitudes of frackers ensure the global markets are oversupplied and prices stay low.
For me, it’s not a case of Oil & Gas being on the decline. I just can’t recommend EM to any youngster, because of the way it has changed over the last 20 years.
If you have an inquisitive mind; if you want to know the “why” behind your boss’ instructions; if you want your experience and knowledge to be valued; if you just want to get on with your job and not waste your time in pointless, endless meetings about things that don’t matter; and if you DON’T want to be lectured that you are racist, misogynistic and have unconscious bias (because .... surely you MUST have!) .... then run like hell from EM !!!
As a young person, why would I stay in a cyclical O&G industry instead of going to something more stable that pays me nearly the same, if not more in some cases? Not disagreeing with you btw, just curious.
10 reactions (+5/-5) - so five positive and five negative reactions.
I'd say we are evenly split on this topic.
Nobody knows man
I have a 16 old boy who is technically inclined and is interested in energy.
I am pushing him more towards renewables and electricity - I think O&G will be fine for many decades but the pie is going to continue to shrink. He'd be better off getting into something that will be on an upswing for several decades.
O&G today reminds me of where the newspapers were around year 2000 - still going strong but very much ingoring the tidal wave of internet news
It would be too reckless to stake an entire career on such a volatile company and industry. Now that the illusion of XOM stability is gone, early career folks should start exiting with haste.
And before someone comments that the high pay should buffer such concerns - consider the following: isnt the high quality talent that you want to retain the same high quality talent that could find solid opportunities elsewhere? I predict a company full of technical mediocrity in the next 5 to 15 years as anyone with foresight jumps ship to growth industries.
I disagree. In the long term oil and gas will likely see many more of these low cycles. The rise of Renewables and reduced fossil fuel consumption are not just this year. If you are young enough and able to move to another industry, it may be wiser in the long term. Again, it's not just a 2020 or COVID problem, it's much deeper than that
question wondering me if their will big raises to make up for comp decline. Who know?
Those that have some stability in the near term are hoping the 2021+ talent crunch provides those left behind some solid opportunities while commodities pop. Just gotta survive.