New car sales in America are almost at 10 percent EV what does this mean for Exxon and refining in the next 10-15 years
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@kk is right. The future of USGC refining isn’t tied to the USA but rather to the world. The USGC refiner buys imported crude (or crude that could be exported) and sells exported products. You are tied directly to the global market. US crude sells at a price that is set globally. Product prices directly follow the prices set by global supply/demand/inventories. As new refineries are built by countries that want to monetize their crude oil directly and demand slows, margins tank and companies that have a more strategic view of the business and other areas to invest in close or sell their refineries first.
It’ll be slow but persistent. The USGC refiner has to remain extraordinarily cost and yield efficient. A large input to costs that is currently a huge advantage is natural gas for fuel and hydrogen. In this regard, LNG exports are NOT your friend or the friend of any manufacturer in the USA. You do not want natural gas price increases the USA to be at parity with the rest of the world. Good luck.
In 10 years, we will be selling alot less gasoline and diesel in our Gulf Coast Refineries. EV penetration around the world is growing exponentionally so your exports of gasoline and diesel to other countries will be shrinking over the next 10 years.
We’ll see which sites get the reconfig projects and which ones don’t.
@gz I second. This. The air quality issue is mostly in massive metropolitan, similar to LA.
And it's so true,Chinese propel like to drink everything warm/hot. They still boil their bottled spring water.
@fg 10 years ago would you ever imagine EV to take up 50% of the sales in China today? Your problems may not be problems 10 years in the future.
Speaking of air quality, I visit China once in a year, no issues with air quality. Tap water, Chinese only drink boiled water it's a culture, there is no incentive for the Chinese government to make tap water drinkable.
@de Are you saying that you’re not a capitalist? Odds are that you are by necessity if not by ideology.
@cb Go to any city in China and try breathing. Bonus points for drinking the tap water.
Even if every vehicle there is electric, the environmental damage is beyond done.
EVs also lack the power to haul and transport heavy loads, mostly due to practical upper limits on the size of the battery and the turbocharger.
@d1 EVs also have reliability issues in cold weather and the batteries have been known to combust when the vehicles are parked and turned off.
I have nothing against EVs in principle, but they have a lot of issues in practice. They also aren’t cheap or environmentally friendly.
The real way to reduce vehicle emissions is to provide safe, efficient, and reliable public transport.
@d1+1k8yaefkn Coming from an American, the most capitalist consumerist nation on the planet, this is comical.
You have no other economic drivers.
How you all think we will all be making electricity for those EVs? It’s not all wind and solar, bruh. Also, serious pollution with EVs if you draw the box big enough. Going to stick with high-mileage low emissions standard fuel or maybe hybrid. That is the better environmental choice.
Greater than 50% of all passenger cars sold in China this year are EVs, once the world also catches up with cheap Chinese EVs, the US will have to catch up as well otherwise will become laughing stock
Same place as it has been the past 100 years.
It will be a very long time before all cars are EVs, but Jet and diesel engines are not going to be replaced by electric in our lifetime. There are also certain chemicals that require feedstock from refining as well.