Thread regarding Sabre Holdings layoffs

@1sk I would not call it a ‘rocket’. It is still red on the year while Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs. More tactical positioning ahead of Q2 results and rate cut expectations.

Why is Sabr stock price rising like a rocket over the last week. Is this another buy low sell high event coming??

It’s called let Co-forge modernize the product because Sabre is still on the mainframe it’s two fold. TPG bought hospitality which allows Sabre to pay its 800mil due on debt September this year. Co forge will create the new product and they will burn through cash like crazy to get there. Remember TPG spun Sabre off in 2014. Sabre then signed a bunch of bad deals, Google, which they are projecting to fall short on and they have like over 500 mil due end of 2026 nobody’s talking about. It’s a race to burn as much money as possible while modernizing the product. 2027 they have two more massive debt payments due and CEO still says we are net negative by like 94 mil a quarter. Sabre will probably go bankrupt and TPG will swoop in by the new revamped off mainframe incorporated with AI product and contracts for Pennie’s on the dollar and give them to whatever they are going to call the new SHS. It will be Sabre 2.0 with a profitable hospitality plus the updated Sabre products not on the mainframe. Can’t help but think this was their plan all along because the end of day they can prolly get the Sabre products in bankruptcy around 1.2 billion as well. New products smaller company and only like 2.4 Billion in debt maybe less? The valuation on a company like that would also be way higher so the balance sheet would look good again. But leadership is clear by continuing to state variable and the need to pivot. They have no business plan that can be seen and they are running out of stuff to sell.

@bz dude, you must be the one voting in the Comparably awards! Let’s say you are an investor and assume you have $5bn cash in hand. Would you - 1. Use it to buy a growth company with demonstrable FCF?, 2. Keep it in the bank or buy US treasuries paying 4-5%?, or 3. Use that cash to pay down debt for a company which is currently unprofitable, has shown no signs of long term growth (and no I am not referring to 1-2% YoY growth, but real business growth i.e. is the GDS pie growing? Are there new and big airline logos?), and in a tense geopolitical environment?

No but if they hire people like you - no wonder Sabre is going broke. Can’t read a financial statement. Just comments based on vibes lmao

@bz+1jy89sta6 calm the F down you are not in charge of the Internet. I take it you are a self important middle manager.

Do you look at financials at all? In 2024 - the EBITDA was 517mill. They are guiding for 700mil in 2025. Lets say they miss the guide and get 600mil. If the PE firm bought the company and payed the debt completely, the payback period is still 13 years vs the 22 years with just HS.

What do you mean why would someone buy with huge debt? Did you read my comment at all? THEY WOULD PAY THE DEBT OFF. MEANING THEY WOULD HAVE NO DEBT AND JUST RAKE IN CASH.YOU CANT BE THAT SLOW RIGHT?

The $700mn is hypothetical. Company is still unprofitable and there are doubts that bookings will recover to what has been factored in. Q1 was already weak.

Why would anyone buy something with a huge debt baggage? Makes no sense? PE typically does leveraged buy outs which would mean borrowing to pay down debt?

What I don’t understand is why TPG would buy Sabre’s Hospitality Solutions business for $1.1 billion when it only generates about $50 million in EBITDA. Wouldn’t it make more sense to buy all of Sabre for around $7 billion—assuming $2 billion in equity and $5 billion in debt (so they pay off all the debt right away)—and gain access to roughly $700 million in annual EBITDA? That seems like a much better return on investment. 22x vs 10x. Can anyone smarter to me explain? This is a PE firm too after all - all they care about is gutting it for money.