The street can't be fooled. . .
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ibm-stock-worst-year-since-2002-buy-rating-8cf1a185
By: Mackenzie Tatananni |
April 10, 2026, 4:05 pm EDT
Key Points
- IBM’s stock fell nearly 22% in 2026, yet one analyst initiated a Buy rating with a $285 price target.
- Originally a maker of mechanical accounting machines and punch-card systems, IBM was an early entrant in personal computers.
- IBM’s reach spans database systems, app developer tools, and other multimodal computing environments that process and analyze several different types of data.
International Business Machines may be reeling from a protracted slump in software stocks, but its “uncanny ability” to pivot through generational tech shifts has one analyst convinced that Big Blue is far from obsolete.
IBM is a storied tech giant, but it hasn’t been immune to a selloff that began in earnest at the start of the year. The stock has fallen nearly 22% in 2026, marking IBM’s worst start to a year since 2002, when it was down 26% over the same period.
But while many investors may have soured on IBM, some analysts have hope. One cheerleader is Citi Research analyst Fatima Boolani, who initiated coverage on the stock at Buy with a $285 price target on Friday.
Shares slid 2.5% to $231.25 on Friday as AI disruption fears crept into investor consciousness yet again. Boolani’s price target suggests the stock could rise 23% from current levels.
The analyst’s bullish thesis is rooted in IBM’s demonstrated ability to survive cycles of technological change. Originally a maker of mechanical accounting machines and punch-card systems, IBM was an early entrant in personal computers, though it ultimately pivoted to IT consulting before the turn of the 21st century.
All this history speaks to its “uncanny ability to consistently reinvent itself through multiple, generational, and paradigm-shifting tech and computing cycles,” Boolani wrote. After nearly 100 years in business, IBM’s software and hardware are entrenched “across the most critical points of the world’s largest, most complex IT infrastructures.”
Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani raised a similar point last month, when he noted that IBM’s customers have remained with the company despite “ample opportunities to migrate off of mainframe.” The phenomenon is referred to as stickiness, meaning a brand’s ability to retain customers and encourage repeat purchases.
Today, IBM’s reach spans database systems, app developer tools, and other multimodal computing environments that process and analyze several different types of data. It’s “yet another advantage IBM can bring to bear in enabling, scaling, and governing production AI systems that will necessarily need to be scaffolded atop existing IT architectures,” Boolani wrote.
The debate continues around the risk of AI-native companies replacing enterprise software providers persists. However, IBM’s deep connections and consulting experience with the world’s biggest companies offer “competitive insulation,” the analyst continued. In fact, those same AI players might use IBM as a bridge to help them sell their own technology to enterprises.
IBM’s capital intensity is also notably lower than that of hyperscalers and cloud infrastructure providers, which merits a more attractive forward free cash flow multiple, Boolani wrote. The stock’s underperformance versus the broader megacap tech group, which has lost around 10% this year, “appears punitive to us, considering the scope of positive profitability revisions ahead.”
And of course, IBM’s quantum computing prospects are another way for the company to differentiate itself. Although the technology remains in its infancy, there has been tremendous technical progress over the past year alone. IBM is on track to deploy its most powerful system to date in 2029.
“Quantum presents an important call option for the long-term investment case,” Boolani wrote, citing IBM’s reputation as a leader in the space. The technology’s monetization potential is “becoming more tangible,” and IBM’s existing pedigree and entrenchment within the public sector serve as a launchpad for growth.