Let's get real and straight talk about GF's past, present and future state. In 2021 and 2022 there was a huge shortage of semiconductors, we all know the automotive story on new cars in parking lots waiting for less than $5 chips before they could get shipped to dealerships. In 2021/2022 basically every fab in the world was fully loaded/overloaded. Now in 2023 the demand is softening rapidly especially in 200mm tech nodes. Then in 2024/2025 there will be 20+ new fabs that come online. So now in 2023 and in 2024/2025 there will be excess supply and customers will have their choice of fabs/technologies. The logical question is where does this leave GF in the big picture?
If we look at the different markets GF plays in the future does not look bright. Let's start with automotive, GF is playing catch-up to many companies and the BCD technologies GF has doesn't have any differentiation over others like UMC, TSMC, etc ... In addition, for EV market GaN techs, GF is way behind other companies like TSMC, Wolfspeed, etc..., this also holds true for SiC which GF really hasn't even started on. Now let's move to computing where GF has only down to 12nm, basically GF has lost all the AMD and high-end computing business due to being out of leading edge. Next look at the flagship area where IBM gave GF a leadership position in the front-end module area, switches, power-amps etc... UMC and TSMC and Psemi are all offering similar technologies and eating GFs leadership there which will drive down profits GF can make in this area. Then there is SiPh which is going very badly for GF (mainly due to lack of resource investment in program), so many issues and some customers dropping GF. Intel and others appear to be way ahead in SiPh. Then there is the IOT world where the FDX platform plays a role and there GF still does have a lead, but they are stalling 12nm version of it potentially giving up any leadership they have.
What does this all mean? In BCD automotive world the only leadership was in 28nm and that is being stalled again. In addition, in automotive space, GaN is way behind other companies and SiC doesn't exist today. In RF/FEM world they are slowing the 90nm switch tech which is allowing competition to have equivalent offerings and catch-up or potentially even pass them. In SiPh, 45nm is very late and many issues, some customers are leaving due to frustration over the issues. In computing given GF has no leading-edge technologies, GF is not a player. In IOT area, FDX platform movement into 12nm is being delayed again. To make things even worse, in 2023 GF is cutting resources, outsourcing experienced employees with low-cost geo newbies and reducing development budgets while other companies are using the reduced fab loading to do more technology development work to ready themselves for the future. Anyone can figure out this really means GF will not get back to full loading in 2023 and not in 2024/2025 either since 20+ new fabs around the world come online. Then GF will really be in trouble trying to meet their gross margins for 40%+ to be competitive with UMC, in order to do this, they will have to continue to cut costs more and continue to reduce development budgets all leading to a portfolio of technologies which trails UMC and TSMC. UMC and TSMC revenues and gross margins will grow while GF's will be reduced YoY.
Net: The future at GF does not look good given the reduced development budgets and poor strategy. The only way things will improve is if Intel comes in and buys GF and takes out the leadership team and replaces them with proven foundry experts from TSMC, UMC, etc ..... Given the current path, GF is a big ship that is floating out at sea with no leadership to avoid the icebergs. Each person should decide at GF if they want to continue to ride that ship or get out.
People can like or dislike this post, but everything stated here are facts and not opinions. If you disagree with something, feel free to post facts proving the statements here incorrect. Sometimes the truth is hard to swallow but everyone should understand the current and future outlook for GF and decide what is best for their career moving into the future. Decide for yourself instead of waiting for the next TC/DR dog and pony smoke show saying how great GF is positioned for the future, such messages are a big scam.