Thread regarding Seagate Technology Inc. layoffs

Toshiba going MAMR - HAMR dead? Does STX have a backup plan?

What do we know:

  1. Ponytail was shown the door, at the same time 24TB HAMR is pushed out.

  2. WD is all in on MAMR

  3. Toshiba announced MAMR plans https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/12/07/toshiba_goes_to_mamr/

  4. STX has no MAMR plan and being late to the party means low margins

  5. STX only needs a cloud swimlane in the next year and one design center. No more SHK and SSDC. minus1500-2000 jobs in R&D and support.

  6. QLC NAND is showing great promise for high capacity drives, reducing TAM for HDD

What are the business options?

  • Cut headcount to maintain positive cash flow in short-term

  • Debt is too high already and cannot borrow

  • Dividend needs to be cut, stock will free fall

  • Oust CEO to demonstrate big change to wall street.

  • Activist investor forces bigger changes

Any other options?????

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| 4101 views | | 21 replies (last April 30, 2019) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+Wvrhji8

21 replies (most recent on top)

Seagate Londonderry is going from strength to strength.Hiring more people.Factory running at high output.Secret new vision in manufacturing something that isn't heads or drives.Watch this space.Its all positive for Seagate Londonderry.

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Post ID: @2kmns+Wvrhji8

Seagate Pittsburgh still going strong. You are either one of us or NOT.

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Post ID: @2jmss+Wvrhji8

Seagate is screwed - shutdown the whole company !

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Post ID: @2ivqw+Wvrhji8

WD has a backup plan.

STX has no backup plan and gambled the company's future on high cost, limited write hamr.

Which has smarter leadership, one with a backup plan and a nand option, the other will be competing with tape at the low end of market.

Fill in the rest. #obvious

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Post ID: @2iofh+Wvrhji8

WD has admitted they are working on HAMR as a backup plan.

They also are in the process of heavy layoffs due to MAMR launch failure and cheap Chinese SSD flooding the market.

Fill in the rest.

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Post ID: @2geus+Wvrhji8

has any one seen any data that mamr actually works in an hdd? the answer is no. fill in the rest.

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Post ID: @2gwuk+Wvrhji8

Reality. After 16TB HAMR it will be 3+ years before 24 TB is generally available, 1 to 2 years after MAMR 24TB. Go talk to your people doing product development. How are those costs, no margins.

This is where ponytail says MAMR cannot do 24TB of course.

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Post ID: @9njs+Wvrhji8

So much negative BS here. The reliability of HAMR has made tremendous progress in the last few years and right now the effort is focused on the yields and working the failure pareto. You don't get to this point on something that is fundamentally flawed. I guess if you have an axe to grind, this website makes it easy to make up all sorts of junk to feed your sorry pathetic life.

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Post ID: @8cvl+Wvrhji8

Keep wishing. Ponytail rode off into the sunset.

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Post ID: @7qzy+Wvrhji8

I hope Ponytail is still at STX. He is the CMU whizkid. Without him, the Pittsburgh mafia in MN and CA will be very very vulnerable.

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Post ID: @3zbk+Wvrhji8

You are correct. If we are to believe HAMR will "SELL" with severely limited write reliability, we must also believe that Seagate is going to dictate and set terms for which customer workloads and applications the drive can and can't be used in. Combine that with an "oops, you wrote too much" internal failure and warranty invalid pop-up code. Who the hell would buy that POS? After the 1st batch sold for customer qualifications, there won't be any forthcoming orders.

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Post ID: @2lpb+Wvrhji8

The story sold by some here is that ponytail was fired not because HAMR doesn't work, but because it costs too much to produce. While it is certainly uneconomical, this hides the fact that the limited write capability of the drive is still present. No customer is going to sign up to buy a drive with a limited (and unknown) number of write cycles. Even if ponytail's replacement can lead a team to bring the cost down, it will still have a reliability issue.

As for MAMR, no one has yet demonstrated its manufacturability and reliability...yet.

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Post ID: @2jgj+Wvrhji8

HAMR is not going to "SELL" at 16TB either. At least not for any profit. The term "work" is used a lot around Seagate by business illiterate people with hard ons fo HAMR and doesn't mean much. Work how long, and at what yields and cost? Write reliability still s---s. No worry, just tell the cloud customers they can only write the drive 5 times. Yeah, OK they are going to line up to buy that POS in droves and abandon SSD drives. Smoking much?

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Post ID: @2gkq+Wvrhji8

I agree with original poster. WD and Toshiba are not doing HAMR, going MAMR, and Seagate is betting the company and going at it alone. Why take all that risk?

Now STX has to get a MAMR program started since HAMR is not going to work after 16TB for a few more years. Where does the money come from? Cut opex to the bone. IT, finance, marketing, legal and others, not to mention shugart and shak non-essential r and d.

STX will be 2 years behind on MAMR.

Does anyone believe ponytail was fired because HAMR works?

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Post ID: @2csy+Wvrhji8

the ponytail is dead, long live the ponytail

or

meet the new boss, same as the old boss

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Post ID: @2sme+Wvrhji8

HAMR almost ready in n months

Where n= n+1

for 2010 < t < 2040

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Post ID: @2cbh+Wvrhji8

There is Another Ponytail. No worries folks. The fact that Hitachi or whoever is doing Mammy matters not one whit.

Do or do not. There is no try.

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Post ID: @2env+Wvrhji8

HAMR almost ready. Will work so good. Better reliability than PMR and cheaper

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Post ID: @2icf+Wvrhji8

CTO in action

https://blog.seagate.com/intelligent/hamr-next-leap-forward-now/

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Post ID: @1qvj+Wvrhji8

Ponytail hosed us good on MAMR. He essentially cut off all research on MAMR and declared it wouldn't work because he knew everything there was about it's potential and anybody who said different wasn't as smart as he was. Pretty much the same thing he did with He technology and left us to scramble to catch up I'm told. His arrogance and strategic misguidance might just lead to the end of Seagate. Yeah, Seagate basically only has 1 product line that makes any money now, and demand is falling off for that quickly. Can it pull off becoming a player in SSD? I think it's do or die there now. It'll be interesting to watch the 180 scramble to throw together MAMR tech into the roadmap, and I think it will of WDC succeeds with it. Patents...yeah good point. That would be damn funny if we had to buy them.

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Post ID: @1kgb+Wvrhji8

Depends if MAMR actually works. If it does, they'll have to swap out HAMR RD staff for those who actually understand the technology. Worst case, they'll have to license it from WD and/or Toshiba.

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Post ID: @1rpw+Wvrhji8

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