Thread regarding Ford layoffs

FORD bankruptcy do not represents rock bottom!

Most people believe that bankruptcy represents rock bottom, but I disagree. I believe that bankruptcy is the vehicle that allows you to recover from rock bottom. If you are suffering from a financial meltdown, and you do not have a clear path out of the chaos, your financial situation will likely not improve in the coming years. You will face the constant pressure of having creditors breathing down your neck. You will worry about whether your utilities will be turned o for non-payment. You will cringe every time the phone rings.

When you declare bankruptcy, though, you get to make choices without this constant pressure. Your life feels easier because it is easier. Your responsibilities become more manageable.

Here is the truth: If your bills are piling up, and you have no way to pay them, bankruptcy might be the best vehicle available to you. It gives you a chance to wipe the slate clean and start over.

In other words, you will not recover from bankruptcy; you will recover through bankruptcy.

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| 1362 views | | 9 replies (last June 5, 2020) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+15f5YRSK

9 replies (most recent on top)

2% chance of good return on investment
48% chance of financial crisis at company

Yup that is encouraging.

Ram outselling Ford and GM in rural and small-mid town America by huge margins. Nearly half trucks bought in rural and small-mid town America are Ram. Ram is also the choice for younger buyers.
F150 does its volume with older urban dwellers. This demographic uses the F150 for pleasure and transport. That market is subject to rapid change based on economic conditions and fads. This demographic will shrink over time.

Visit states where 4wd is critical such as Colorado and you see majority of vehicles are Jeep, Subaru, Toyota. Bronco has stiff competition, Ford ceded the market many years ago. It is hard to win customers once they are loyal to another brand. Even harder to win back customers once you have lost them. The Bronco will likely just take sales from Explorer and F150. No net new customers.

So boys and girls Ford is relying on a fickle and shrinking market demographic.
The Joe consumers who need a 4wd or truck for their livelyhoods or location do not favor Ford.
It is a tough world out there. It does not look good for Ford.

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Post ID: @4oxj+15f5YRSK

Only a 48% Probability....................Encouraging?

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/F–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Lets not forget we are banking on low volume new platforms (Mach 1, Mustang EV, Bronco) as the saving grace.

Betting the F-150 sees another push back to launch as well.

Think this helps or hurts probability?

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Post ID: @4uyp+15f5YRSK

@2jdf+15f5YRSK
Agreed. I should have stated that I think the Ford family members would resist any voluntary bankruptcy. And I can't see any other OEM buying into their current stock structure.

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Post ID: @2ziq+15f5YRSK

@1mrw+15f5YRSK the Ford family would get nothing. Just the size of the pension obligation is many orders of magnitude more than they could even afford. They didn't build anything, so they deserve this fate if it comes their way. The last 30 years has been a full on surrender with some bright spots. They won some battles but the war is lost. The last bastion is trucks and SUVs, and frankly our Asian competition has our number. Honda CRV is the top selling mid sized cross over, with Toyota Rav4 a close second. Even Kia/ Hyundai is knocking on the door with the Telluride/Palasade (For all the money spent on the new Explorer, frankly embarasing). Ram is catching up fast in market share because they offer a more affordable truck (is their margin lower? sure, but they are buying market share that Ford is losing). Bronco is a fanatasy; first 1-2years will be hot, but I expect a sharp cool down. Also FCA is not afraid to discount products, so I can see Wrangler getting some hefty incentives once Bronco hits the showroom floor.

In the end the family will be fine, they have so much money they could sustain an affluent life for many years to come. Who gets screwed? The workers, all the countries and states where Ford has operations, the dealers, etc.

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Post ID: @2jdf+15f5YRSK

Bankruptcy is a bit trickier with Ford. What would the bankruptcy judge award to the Ford family? Would their preferred class of stock even exist in the NewCo?

A similar question holds for any sort of merger. With Ford being the weaker partner I doubt any acquiring company would hand over the reigns to the Ford family.

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Post ID: @1mrw+15f5YRSK

Bankruptcy is the rock bottom. It all depends on what the federal bankruptcy judge determines. They could say sell off most assets and go into liquidation to pay off the loans, bonds, etc with whatever you get. If it was just the big3 in the United States, Ford would get a sweetheart deal. Reality is there is some 15-20 car companies; the industry would have a slight disruption if Ford ceased operations but recover. Why give the same management team another chance, the enterprise is sick and loaded with a bunch of liars and cheats. They got here all by themselves. Stop rewarding unethical and borderline criminal behavior.

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Post ID: @ogl+15f5YRSK

Ah yes, the infamous bankruptcy ploy where the employees in the trenches get screwed the most with no ramifications for the executives.

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Post ID: @cuu+15f5YRSK

Darn spell check! roses not Rose's

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Post ID: @emu+15f5YRSK

BK is not all Rose's, but you may some good points. There will be a lot of layoffs and other ramifications, but it might be the only option.

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Post ID: @lhh+15f5YRSK

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