Oil is the most portable source of dense energy and will always be in high demand. The big oil companies have survived many political and environmental problems over the years and will continue to thrive. They have great lawyers and a highly competent technical staff. It would be a tragedy to shut down big oil and rely on the green movement for energy. You cannot run the world from Reddit or Twitter.
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I’m enjoying how (probably) the same person who doesn’t like EVs and can’t accept the market reality keeps clearing their browsing history so they can come back on this thread and downvote every comment they don’t like.
I take the fact that they’re doing this while repeating the same refuted talking points as a tacit admittance that they know they’re wrong and that it’s over for O&G as we know it.
Good luck to everyone.
https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-owners-switching-gas-charging-a-hassle-study-2021-4
@2txf It isn’t just EVs.
For one, despite what some posters keep repeating here, the market (consumers and investors alike) very much want EVs, but the market is a quite a ways off from being able to meet the demand. Roll that in with the increasing range of renewable and other energy technologies (including hydrogen combustion, wind, nuclear , etc.) and an increasingly strict regulatory culture. What you get is an industry that in the next decade will look a lot like coal does now, or worse.
Bottom Line: the combination of market and regulatory forces will greatly reduce demand for O&G over the next decade, and continue to drive industry-wide disruptions, likely leading to reduced profit margins.
I bet the OP is a very old lady who does not know much about Twitter? LOL
As long as big oil can deliver gasoline at a reasonable price EV will fail on a huge scale. People generally are driven by what is cheaper rather than what is se-y according to the new Green wave.
A coal powered car produces way less emissions than an ICE engine because power plants are crazy efficient. Ever heard of reboilers? An ICE engines max efficiency is 50% ... and of course EV’s don’t have to be powered by coal, where’s ICE is always producing CO2. Believe what you want, doesn’t change reality. He-l, invest all your net worth into petro, I’d actually encourage you to do that.
Yeah right, oil suckers, you replaced me with contractors!
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2021/05/30/they-wanted-keep-working-exxonmobil-locked-them-out
GM's vision is to put everyone on EV
https://www.gm.com/commitments/electrification.html
You guys are in denial. Have you not been reading the news?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/global-electric-vehicle-numbers-set-to-hit-145-million-by-2030-iea-.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/26/ford-ups-ev-investments-targets-40percent-electric-car-sales-by-2030-under-latest-turnaround-plan.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/20/ev-investing-jpmorgan-ubs-pick-battery-stocks-set-to-soar.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/why-china-is-so-far-ahead-of-the-us-when-it-comes-to-ev-production-.html
etc
How is a coal-powered car “green”
Big oil will be around for decades to come and will never actually go away. EVs are a blip in the scheme of the oil business and the complete replacement just on passenger cars to electric will be quite sometime. Heavy equipment, planes, jets, will not be electric, at least for many decades. I'll let you be the the first to take a non-stop intercontinental flight on an electric jumbo jet.
Oil is what makes the world go around and the lifestyles we live. Because of big oil we enjoy all kinds of products and things that people don't realize are made with petroleum products. We come in contact with these things everyday, all day, in our lives. All the components that makeup those EVs.... yep, made with petroleum products: the body, interior, wiring, connectors, and so forth. You couldn't go a single day without touching a petroleum product. Batteries are made with petroleum products. Most packaging that items come in. You're working in the oil business you should know this.
The standard of living that you enjoy right now is solely based on big oil, there's no getting around it. I could go on and on about how oil is here to stay. I mean it's 2021, we were supposed to be flying our cars in 2000... meet George Jetson. There will be a time when the ICE may be a thing of the past, but not in my lifetime, my son's lifetime, and possibly his future kids lifetimes.
So this argument of EVs is silly in the grand scheme of things. Even right now, I see Teslas on the road here and there, but I personally don't know anyone or have even seen someone I come in contact with actually own and drive an EV. And for that matter would even want one. The market will dictate what and how quick this change happens. And when that time comes big oil will still be standing and the human race will be enjoying their daily lifestyles due to their products in most everything they come in contact with whether they know it or not.
@2zjx+1b5CB99e We can look back at history. In fact, lets look at the iPhone. Lets see what obstacles the iPhone had on its path to mass-market adoption, and compare it to the EV case:
- Charging infrastructure. It turns out iPhones are not cars. They can be sufficiently charged from any outlet. They don't need massive amounts of energy, so even old houses in areas with old electric transmission and distribution systems have no problems charging them.
- Wifi. These were already becoming mass-market at the time (although the iPhone helped adoption). They are relatively inexpensive to install.
- Network connectivity. Arguably this problem isn't solved everywhere, but once they figured out how to send Internet data down CATV lines (which were installed in the 70-80s), adoption was quick.
The roadblocks facing mass EV adoption are different. Again, they are still there, notwithstanding your earnest wishes that they aren't.
@2zlc+1b5CB99e you are making a strawman argument. I never said that mass adoption of EVs will never happen because I can't imagine it. I am merely identifying a few issues that must be overcome, but cannot quickly be overcome, for mass adoption of EVs (these are the same issues that you basically handwaved away while flexing your Bloomberg subscription).
@2yxm+1b5CB99e Look back at history and think about how far we've gone. EV's will be affordable to most, even minimum wage earners. Just like iPhone for example when it first came out, it was a hype. But now, anybody can buy it. That's how it will be for cars as well. Auto makers will eventually stop making gas cars.
Electric Vehicles are not affordable for a grocery workers, retail workers, custodial workers or non- union warehouse workers. I am sure I also missing of professions that will not be able to afford these EV’s.
The big push for electrification is going to induce poverty upon a large segment of society.
The cost of procuring an EV is prohibitive.
@2zlc+1b5CB99e Good point. And ExxonMobil will be in the history books. Maybe there should even be an Energy Museum showcasing the rise and fall of Exxon.
During the time when there were only horses and camels and just a few steam combustion locomotive, most people thought never in a million years will they ever own an automobile. Fast forward centuries later, loo and behold, ICE autos.
Now many people start to switch to EV's, and who are the hybrids even for, those who can't make up their minds? Fast forward into the future, ICE autos will be in the museum, that's for sure. I bought my Tesla 2 years ago and very happy with it.
it strikes me that you may have the same opinions as people that thought cars couldn’t compete against horses. or people that thought the internet was a toy.
just cause you don’t see it with your two eyes doesn’t mean there aren’t trillions of dollars of business interests behind it.
personally, refiners are in serious trouble. it is far more efficient to transmit electricity to homes than to build the infrastructure to refine and transport gasoline to thousands of highly regulated gas stations.
Yes, the market wants it. The only people who don’t want it are oil executives, for obvious reasons.
Again, the market doesn't. I can go days without seeing any electric only cars around greater Boston. Hybrids, on the other hand, are all but the majority nowadays.
About the power grid…take a look at ERCOT’s own report and public statements on the parts of the TX grid that caused the collapse in February (spoiler alert, it wasn’t renewables).
Again, I did the math for California's power grid (you know, the largest state in the union). Feel free to do it yourself. Spoiler alert: EV won't work without massive generation and transmission investment, and we both know the likelihood that either will be built in CA are slim to none.
I’m not here to pick through walls of text and give point-by-point refutations. If you want to learn the market, buy a subscription to Bloomberg.
Translation: I really don't have anything to refute the points raised, so maybe I'll just flex by claiming I have a Bloomberg subscription.
Again, this is about money, not feelings or opinions.
I agree. Nothing I said has anything to do with my feelings or opinions. They are facts -- facts that you just sortof handwave with "but muh Bloomberg terminal says yer wrong."
@2rds Yes, the market wants it. The only people who don’t want it are oil executives, for obvious reasons.
About the power grid…take a look at ERCOT’s own report and public statements on the parts of the TX grid that caused the collapse in February (spoiler alert, it wasn’t renewables). I’m not here to pick through walls of text and give point-by-point refutations. If you want to learn the market, buy a subscription to Bloomberg.
Again, this is about money, not feelings or opinions.
Hybrid is far-and-away better than an EV. No competition.
@2boj+1b5CB99e does the market want that though?
Somehow I don't think a seven-fold increase in time spent refueling/recharging is something the market is going to jump at. Looking out in my apartment building's parking lot, 100% of the cars are either straight gas, or gas hybrid.
The car I plan to buy in another few years? 100% hybrid. It might have a plugin capability but I won't be able to use that.
The overall power grid issues? How convenient that you didn't bother to answer that.
@1lrz Cool story bro.
For each issue that you’ve described, several solutions exist or are being developed. I’m not going to conduct a point-by-point dissection of what you wrote, and it wouldn’t make any difference; the market has spoken, and it wants EVs, renewable/green energy, and sustainable manufacturing. That’s where the money is going, and that’s where the money is to be made.
This isn’t about culture, identity, or even about what you or I think. This is about making money. The fact that it’s good for the planet is an added bonus.
People who honestly believe that everyone can pivot towards EV are deluding themselves.
Yes, for some people, they can make EV work with their daily routines. But in the vast majority of cases it is just a second car for them.
Not everyone is in a situation where they can install and maintain expensive EV chargers. Heck, not everyone has their own garages -- think about people who live in multi-family housing and park in a lot.
And even if they could place a charger, and even if they could afford it, the electric grid just won't support getting the necessary amount of electric energy to all those cars overnight. I did the math recently for California, and there is no way in he-l they could go 100% EV with their current grid (and no, "just add batteries at the charging station" doesn't work, there just wouldn't be enough juice to recharge those within a week). And California is notorious for nixing any new transmission lines, not that PG&E could even afford to build new lines now.
And even assuming you overcome all that, what then? If you are on a long road trip, sure, 15 minutes to get an extra 85 miles is nice. That means you are spending 15% of your time stopped charging. But with my car I can add 500 miles of fuel in under 10 minutes. That's a seven-fold improvement. Recharge times for EVs are still a ki---r drawback.
@1lff — Exxon invented the lithium-ion battery. The guy who invented it worked for Exxon for 16 years. You can find reports on it in the CSR library and several patents from the 1970s. True to form, the company shelved the project and doubled down on oil. Sony picked it up, put it in the camcorder, and created the mobile device industry. True story.
@1lff Good question.
Eventually EM will adapt, but only under the continued duress of constant external pressure, and only after they’ve tried everything else first.
EVs including the mining and processing are less polluting than O&G. So I fail to see what your point is.
Always The first sign a fortune teller doesn't know what they are talking about.
EM was great a manufacturing, why not produce battery-related products like lithium. Li is so abundant, it could be produced from the ocean waters which make up most of earth's surface. The US does not have an abundant Li brine beds unlike Australia, China, Chile, and Argentina, but we have some in Nevada. EM should anticipate what we need in the future.
Put down the crack pipe. The best and brightest from the most prestigious schools around the world are focused on turning big oil into little oil.
Yes Darren. Please try to convince Larry now, right?
The Stone Age did not end due to lack of stones. So the Oil age
ExxonMobil dies with its horsedrawn carriages
EVs are still plenty polluting, if you draw the box large enough to include lithium mining and battery disposal. Plus, you still need to make power. Liquids will be competitive into power plants more often.
Exxonmobil will not prevail.
Lookup GM, Ford, Toyota, Tesla, etc. Their roadmaps are to ki-l the traditional combustion engine in the next few years. The US is lagging behind EV's. I've been to many cities in EU where they have accelerated use of EV's. GM is a leader in EV sales in China who's started to get green. Heavy Oil is finite and dirty and it will not run the new world.
The COVID pandemic marks the beginning of the end of oil. Me, my neighbors, the country is waking up to a new world of clean energy. And the Fed is giving incentives if you buy EV now, even the banks do. Welcome to the dawn of the Green Era.
@OP It depends on what you mean by “prevail”.
The super-majors will continue to exist in some recognizable form under the same names, but the energy industry will undergo sweeping structural changes over the next decade. So-called “green energy” will be a much larger and important share of the market, and the clout that goes along with controlling large oil reserves will diminish to the point of virtual irrelevance.
The market wants green energy, and investors smell the money (we’re talking about trillions of dollars in growth over several decades). Oil and gas aren’t going to come anywhere close to that level of profit potential. Not now, not ever.
It’s over for O&G. It won’t end overnight, but the best years for the industry are in the rear view mirror. It’s time to adapt.
Green energy won't solve all our problems. However it will be a huge detriment to "big oil". Like you have said, oil is very energy dense and can get things a very long distance (cargo transports, planes, semi trucks, etc.) and refuel very quickly. These will not go away anytime soon.
Residential commutes that are barely traveling up to 100 mi per day do not need that. They are very easily able to do their commute and then charge a few hours through the night to replenish. This will be where the demand is going to shrink and hit oil the hardest. The gasoline market in the next few decades is going to shrink so much that operators will race to the bottom to collect the tiny margin available.
EVs are becoming price comparable to ICE vehicles and will very shortly start to take much of the market share YOY. Many people will take that option because it is less costly to buy and maintain an EV. Want to go on vacation and go long distance? Get an ICE car rental for the weekend. Reserve your EV for the daily commute if needed.
Oil will survive but it won't be "big oil." The margins wont be there. The operators will be small nimble companies and the oil business as we know it today will be very different. Nothing lasts for ever. To those that got comfortable, turned on the autopilot switch and assumed you would NOT have to learn a new Industry....surprise!