Greetings,
The third quarter ends on September 30th.
Last year, Cengage lost approximately 100M in cash (348 - 244) and added about 80M in liabilities (debt).
My predictions and reasoning, based on publicly available information:
Cengage will be down between 80M and 110M in cash.
I've previously discussed the changeover to LIBOR rates for Cengage's debt. The LIBOR rates have gone from 4.7% in March 2023 to the current 5.18%.
From a historical perspective, consider that at the end of Q2 last year (9/22), LIBOR was at 2.51%, and in June 2022 it was at 1%.
I don't believe Cengage has the income to offset these interest rate hikes, and the only prediction is (another) massive hemorrhaging of cash.
Recently, I learned that the Boston office had closed. I had predicted KY would shutter, but I thought Boston would stay open. Last quarter's filing made it clear that Boston would close, and apparently, it has. This will have removed a significant expense from the balance sheet, but it's a one-time reduction. It may be enough to keep the company afloat, but having all Massachusetts employees working from home is not a viable long-term strategy.
Having worked at Thomson Place and Channel Center, I know that the unwritten rule at Cengage was always to expect a little when someone works from home. It may be acceptable for some departments, but (IMHO) productivity will have taken a hit due to this initiative.
I also know that our Fuhrer, The Man with the Iron Credo, will not like the thought of the Cenforce enjoying this much freedom. Reducing Boston's workforce will take time, but it will happen.
Production has been moving toward off-shore for years. Without a physical building to support the IT department days are numbered, as an Indian firm will most likely be brought in. Web Hosting (if it still exists) may keep two or three employees for pushes, but even that's debatable.
Any employee that can be purchased in Mason or India for less money should be looking for a new position. I know this has been said here for years, but without a physical office, there is no reason to pay Boston wages for the departments located on the East Coast. If you want to keep your job you may need to get on the train to Mason or Bombay!
Expect a massive re-alignment and consolidation in Mason, which I have talked about for years or a reorg lasting 8-12 months.
I don't think Cengage is in Bankruptcy territory yet. It may happen in Q4, depending on how many more rate hikes we see and how much debt its owners can pile on (legally).
I am concerned that we may see a situation where paychecks don't arrive on a Friday. I don't see the cash to sustain the current workforce.
Could someone record/post the next First Friday call on YT?
Having said all of this, it must be acknowledged that Cengage Unlimited has been an unmitigated success!
Full Stop!