Broadcom?
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“There are many people in the world who can’t be helped.”
And they invariably don’t think it is them that needs the help.
So if you don’t think you need help consider that it might just be you. The more you think it isn’t you the more likely that it is indeed you.
I assume “Bless your heart” was aimed at me, because I wrote the previous post. But I do not know what was meant by it.
I’ve tried to generate discussion of the OP’s useful question. IMO, we have enough evidence to know who will buy out SAS (a firm like Broadcom, or private equity) and when (in 2025, unless we get a recession) and why (because nobody else buys declining revenue streams, and the best time to sell a declining asset is ASAP).
The responses have questioned the effect of inflation, and whether the asset is declining, and whether the owner is selling or merely decluttering.
There are many people in the world who can’t be helped.
@csxj+1rRJXhEc “Bless your heart”. I’m sure that was intended as a response to someone and that person got your message and fully understands what you meant by it. But for the rest of us would you care to put even the tiniest bit of context to your whopping three words?
Bless your heart.
“He's decluttering the books while he still has control. This should have been done long ago. Why now?”
Because until now, he wasn’t trying to sell the company. As a private company, SAS wasn’t required to have audited finances, and didn’t need to create subsidiaries for the airplanes and for JMP. These actions prepare the company for sale or IPO.
SAS doesn’t want layoffs— no company does. But a >20% decline in revenues (inflation-adjusted) must cut into profits. At this point, SAS may need layoffs to maintain profitability -- which makes a more attractive sale or IPO.
If a deep recession freezes the market, nobody can IPO or sell much of anything. That could delay the event to 2026 or even 2027. But all the evidence we have suggests this company is being prepared for sale or IPO in 2025.
"The Majority Owner has 50 years of business experience. It makes no business sense to cling to a declining asset — and we have evidence that he’s not."
Uh, an alternative point of view:
The Gentle Art of Swedish Death Cleaning: How to Free Yourself and Your Family from a Lifetime of Clutter - (Quoted from Amazon) -
In Sweden there is a kind of decluttering called döstädning, dö meaning “death” and städning meaning “cleaning.” This surprising and invigorating process of clearing out unnecessary belongings can be undertaken at any age or life stage but should be done sooner than later, before others have to do it for you.
The guy is 81. He doesn't have much time to cling to anything, declining or not. Since we're dealing with Statistics, check out the mortality table here:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329784695_Survival_Mortality_and_Life_Expectancy
He's made it to 80 (81). According to the survival table, it's predicted that he has 8.1 years of life left. If he makes it to 90, it's predicted he has 4.6 years of life left. In my opinion, he's decluttering the books while he still has control. This should have been done long ago. Why now? I think the area answer lies in the area under the survival curve.
Tick tock.
"Or you can continue sh-----g on the ones built by somebody else."
Your negativity is ki-ling my mojo, man.
“ Three billion per year is nothing to sneeze at. Great. Good for the owners, employees, children, and dingbats.”
Who did you think it would be good for when getting a job at a privately held company? You can always go work for public company and hope you get the right one. Or go start your own 3 billion dollar company.
Or you can continue sh-----g on the ones built by somebody else.
Three billion per year is nothing to sneeze at. Great. Good for the owners, employees, children, and dingbats. The links provide a more balanced view than what we read here. SAS is still in use in places with regulatory pressure and places with an old guard. Many messages state this.
In big Pharma, validation is important. Does the process consistently produce the results expected? SAS does, and it is validated. However, all well-run industries look for ways to cut costs and improve efficiencies. At some point, big Pharma will investigate R and Python validation projects. There will be a thorough financial analysis to evaluate the feasibility of switching. When (not if) Python and R pass these studies, there will be a report about the total cost of ownership for all the alternatives. Unless SAS can beat the alternatives over the long-run, it's toast. It has to lower prices to compete. That isn't going to happen.
For places holding onto SAS due to an old guard, the clock is ticking. The young turks will eclipse the old guard at some point, and unless SAS can beat the alternatives over the long-run, it's toast. Again, it will have to lower prices to compete. Not going to happen.
There may indeed be an IPO, with shares distributed to the children of record, and maybe even an overly promoted dingbat or two. To me, this doesn't seem like a good place to park money, unless there was a substantial dividend. Even then, I'd choose an alternative.
I've seen how the sausage is made, and experienced some of the folks making it, alluded to in other posts. I can't say that this is a well-run company or that there are serious people who would make good use of my investment. If they aren't making good use of company resources, then why would they make good use of mine? They wouldn't.
Others may have different opinions. Invest at your own risk.
@bfsm+1rRJXhEc I don’t disagree that we need new revenue streams and such.
But at the end of the day 3 billion flat revenue for 11 years isn’t something to dismiss as a failure. I’ll sure as sh-t take it.
And yes we are all dealing with inflation and it decreases everyone’s spending power. Not just SAS.
"revenue of 3 billion. Profitable and getting more profitable as layoffs and other expense cutting measures are happening. Little to no debt. Lots of cash in the bank and massive capital holdings."
I have felt very fortunate to have had a nice career at SAS, but the fact that SAS first cracked 3 billion in 2013 and has stayed roughly there since, is most definitely a sign that all is not well.
SAS needs someone with bold ideas to develop new revenue streams. Not seeing it with the current leadership.
Revenues are flat only if you ignore inflation.
Inflation-adjusted revenues are down >20% over the past 10 years.
Layoffs maintain SAS’ profitability.
@bjpc+1rRJXhEc Ah so for me the “standard of proof” is high because I dare to be neutral. But for the BS you all spout anything goes. Gotcha.
If revenue is flat and expenses are clearly going down (layoffs) then profitability is clearly increasing…. Pretty simple and doesn’t require much mental gymnastics.
"Profitable and getting more profitable"
Hmm. You've seen the books, then? The standard of proof here is high, anon. Or are you a "dingbat and just talking about th8ngs you don’t actually know"? (I'll bet you are.) Do you have "an actual clue instead of gossiping about sh-t you know nothing about"? (I'll bet you don't.)
@bhvv+1rRJXhEc Curious what point you are making with that link?
Reading through the full discussion thread I see a whole lot of “We still use SAS”. Plenty of bashing also but not even remotely one sided.
https://www.reddit.com/r/datascience/comments/11lhieh/comment/jbeh9ok/
https://www.reddit.com/r/datascience/comments/11lhieh/does_anyone_use_sas_anymore_why_is_it_still_around/
revenue of 3 billion. Profitable and getting more profitable as layoffs and other expense cutting measures are happening. Little to no debt. Lots of cash in the bank and massive capital holdings.
Even with the revenue being flat it sure sounds terrible. I know I wouldn’t want those kinds of problems.
Even David Koresh had his true believers. Koresh would take the Branch Davidian compound with him, as the compound wasn't intended to continue without him.
[Insert a pithy quote about v. 10.0 and dirt being thrown over them and the like.]
Tick-tock.
"Just because a bunch of people here claim it is a falling asset doesn’t make it so."
Hmm. How many years of declining revenues have we seen, from the simple austerity measures of "reduce expenses" in 2016, to the VRBP in 2018 and 2021, to the layoffs in the last 18 to 24 months? I don't think a claim that SAS isn't a "falling asset" is supportable, whether or not it's "a bunch of people here". It's true even if only one person says it.
@adzf+1rRJXhEc true enough. There are also people who judge other peoples actions, motivations as foolish, ego driven, etc without knowing the first thing about the things driving a persons actions.
Just because a bunch of people here claim it is a falling asset doesn’t make it so.
"I believe that “IPO-Ready” means “For Sale”. A private sale could happen at any time. But evidently, no one has yet made a sufficient offer.
Theories on this site hold that SAS “can’t” or “won’t” IPO. There is no growth, they say. The Majority Owner will cling to a declining asset, they say, against his family’s best interests."
There are delusional, self-centered people who cling to assets, habits, behaviors, people, etc. against their family's best interests. There are also people who hold on to items or situations they believe have value, even as they depreciate to zero. Consider yourself lucky if you don't know anyone like this.
Can we answer the OP’s “When” question?
I believe that “IPO-Ready” means “For Sale”. A private sale could happen at any time. But evidently, no one has yet made a sufficient offer.
Theories on this site hold that SAS “can’t” or “won’t” IPO. There is no growth, they say. The Majority Owner will cling to a declining asset, they say, against his family’s best interests.
But there’s no evidence for either theory. Growth is desirable, but not required, to IPO. And SAS can point to growth in a few product lines, enough to IPO in the current market.
The Majority Owner has 50 years of business experience. It makes no business sense to cling to a declining asset — and we have evidence that he’s not.
SAS has repeatedly announced its intent to become “IPO-ready”. And SAS is reducing headcount, creating subsidiaries, and getting its books in order. These are all actions a company takes to prepare for an IPO.
An announced IPO could provoke private buyers to make their best offers -- bidding against each other. SAS would be happy if one made a sufficient offer. But if no one does, an IPO is a good fallback.
All the evidence we have suggests that this is the plan. SEC auditing requirements have delayed this plan until 2025. A recession could delay it until 2026. But I believe we know the plan, and the timeframe.
@8vvc+1rRJXhEc You don’t actually expect an answer to that question do you? Whoever said it clearly doesn’t actually know anything about salary adjustment.
All the downvoters just like the idea that maybe there is something to be up in arms about.
"...the partnership with MSFT started under OS could have been a beautiful thing. BH and GD fumbled the absolute mess out of it so it’s all for naught. i agree with the others that MSFT is unlikely to buy SAS at this stage …"
"...Thanks to that dingbat they put in charge of the microsoft partnership it's sunk beyond all recognition. She makes a mess out of everything and is a complete embarrassment. Guess that's what happens when someone who is not qualified to do an important job is moved into one, complete with massive pay rise, to shush her allegations of secksism against her previous manager. Who remains a director despite repeated complaints of secksist behavior..."
Hmmm....a real puzzler.
I want to hear you say UNCLE!
Say it!
SAY IT!
SAAAYYYY IIITTT!!!!
Everyone can downvote till you are blue in the face but it doesn’t make me wrong.
@7rqn+1rRJXhEc Simple yes or now…. Do you actually know details to backup “Massive raise” and other allegations or not?
Hows about some dingbat initials? Does she report to MT?
A dingbat in charge of a Microsoft partnership? They must be clowning.
@6euh+1rRJXhEc So “dingbat” told you her salary and raise amounts?
Or you are the dingbat and just talking about th8ngs you don’t actually know?
Which dingbat is it? I'm curious if we have matching dingbats.
Thanks to that dingbat they put in charge of the microsoft partnership it's sunk beyond all recognition. She makes a mess out of everything and is a complete embarrassment. Guess that's what happens when someone who is not qualified to do an important job is moved into one, complete with massive pay rise, to shush her allegations of secksism against her previous manager. Who remains a director despite repeated complaints of secksist behavior.
@1aif+1rRJXhEc Private company. Why the fu-k would he show you the balance sheet?
"There is no way that Microsoft would be foolish enough to buy SAS."
Especially after getting an inside-view through the "Partnership".
Will you at least be transparent about the balance sheet?
I’m going to buy it. And then I’m going to promote myself from senior associate to principal and watch everyone cry about it on this site.
You may want to seek counseling for "self-righteousness". I'm not saying this to take a dig at you. I used to be self-righteous, too. It didn't get me anywhere. I was a miserable person to be around who couldn't relate to others.
None of us can control what happens in the world, or what other people think and say about us. Life is easier if you let go of that illusion.
The decision to leave is not black and white. Sometimes staying, warts and all, is the best strategy. We can still stay and be bitter about lost opportunities, whether they were lost at SAS or elsewhere.
the partnership with MSFT started under OS could have been a beautiful thing. BH and GD fumbled the absolute mess out of it so it’s all for naught. i agree with the others that MSFT is unlikely to buy SAS at this stage …
I’m sorry for the folks on here who were let go.
I’m happy and proud of the folks who weren’t happy and left for what in some cases turned out to be greener pastured. Courage of their convictions…
I’m angry and frustrated with the people on here who spout negatives and vitriol nonstop often with no backing facts. Often about things they are extremely unlikely to know anything about. The ones who seem to hate working at SAS but instead of leaving continue to collect a paycheck all while smiling cheerfully at everything when in the office on on virtual meetings. Zero courage of their convictions….
You seem very angry about this site.
You all really should start your own companies where you will have an actual clue instead of gossiping about sh-t you know nothing about.