I believe it is over as far as IBM and “legacy” services. IBM learned a very valuable lesson when they sold off System X. OVER SUBSCRIBE to the heads you are shifting. IBM will stuff that transaction as full as they can, and negotiate with Bain (or their equivalent) to be the bad guy. Everyone will use the repositioning as their excuse, For the head count reduction, BUT bean counters have already figured this out, and have priced it into the deal. Remember Bain has been hired to restructure “services” and has had a full year to look at this. Bain is the ultimate Bean counter. This deal is done in my opinion as IBM needs to raise cash to pay off their upcoming debt.
HW is a slightly different story. The head count for the HW division has been pruned to the bone. NA Power head count (marketing) is under 100. Dasd is in the same boat. System Z has always run lean and mean due to retirements and the continuing bleed of Z expertise. Whoever acquires HW division will need to stop the bleed of experience, and ensure a sustainable business plan. That means that IBM will have to make some guarantees to whoever acquires the HW business. THUS the fortune 250-500 “cloud” strategy from IBM (Eg guarantee the Fortune 500 customers will be moved to IBM’s as a service model (cloud/SW)). The remaining customer set will be sold to whoever can sustain a robust “channel” operation, while IBM guarantees the ongoing HW design via a GF type of 10 year arrangement. IBM will also strike a deal via an IP arrangement to milk the ongoing SW OS’s that are sold outside of the Fortune 500.
Great post by @WGpOdxb-1zoa. Deserving of its own thread.