Can you answer yes to any of these questions?
Have you started within the last year and missed commitments, failed to deliver or have been over budget on projects? Or just not "catching on"?
Are you the weakest contributor on your team, is it very obvious now due to a reduced team from recent departures?
Do you make more than any of you peers that preform at a higher level?
Does your manager have no clue what you do on a daily basis?
Has your manager asked what are you working on? What projects do you have?
Have you been resistant to change, difficult to work with or feeding to the rumor mill?
Has a member of upper management asked if you have plans for the holidays?
Have you had contact with a member of upper management that you never had before? A casual conversation, a smile, a look?
Can you answer no to these?
What are the goals you are working towards for your annual review?
What projects are you working on after the new year?
Polish up your CV.