Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

The Contrarian View

Here's what I read and heard in the call and the earnings report. Yes, I saw the after-hours and all the news reports. I am not debating layoffs or the like, just offering some additional POV to consider for long term. Look for a few similar takes from Stacy Rasgon and his peers tomorrow.

  • DCG units were up only 4%. ASPs up 2%. Transition to Skylake will take several quarters.

  • DCG 'growth story' was really inter-segment, not units or income. BK defined 7% as 'high single digits', which it really isn't. There is no new growth story in Xeon units.

  • Only mention of 10nm was for CCG - 2H18 for any volume ramp. No defined cadence for Xeon on 10nm at this time.

  • Nice growth on both IOTG and NSG - this helped fuel the quarter. NSG is STILL losing money, though, while guys like Micron are making money hand over fist.

  • 'Other' still losing nearly $1B a quarter

  • Selling a LOT of assets (McAfee, ASML, ICAP consolidation) to pad income and/or pay for acquisition-related charges. This can only last for so long.

  • Still north of $27B in Long Term Debt. No matter how you cut it, that's a LOT.

  • Cuts continue to happen - OpEx mentioned several times. SMG was particularly mentioned (Slide 7)

  • Guidance made a good sound bite, but gross margin is down and if including Mobileye, Q4 is basically flat YoY.

A number of questions tried to suss out where the expected growth will come from. BK's AI answer was uncomfortably comical - that alone is worth the effort to download the call.

Top down numbers were enough to keep everyone frothing. Intel will be lifted by the rest of the market. Market share numbers are due in a few weeks - that should tell an additional tale.

Substantive comments welcome - you know who you are, and the others know who they are not.

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| 3381 views | | 13 replies (last October 29, 2017) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+PXVVGo2

13 replies (most recent on top)

@2osk - The breakout of IOTG serves a few purposes:

  • It's a growth engine, no matter what. Low overhead, increasing customer base, longevity in the market. IOTG has always had a decent story - it's just that it is SLOW growth.

  • It fits into the narrative of diversification and new shiny directions. That's why it was renamed from ECG to IOTG about 3 years ago; to capture the Internet of Things mania. Unfortunately, they never were able to pull together a silicon story (think QSD) and the whole IOT push has devolved into pushing IOT gateways with Core CPUs and maybe some software. Tiny IA is dead.

  • It makes nice copy and serves as distraction from the real issues.

I'm sure I'm missing a few. Either way, with all the SMG moves over the past year, the old Embedded sales force is pretty much dismantled, and IOTG will ultimately plateau as people finally get fed up with them and move to other solutions. AMD poses the greatest immediate threat, but long-life concerns will continue to push to other ARM-based vendors.

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Post ID: @2eyz+PXVVGo2

Why bother reporting a segment called Iotg which only resells products. Only 10 percent of Client Group revenue.

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Post ID: @2osk+PXVVGo2

Intel is riding the 14nm fourth generation products wait till 10 piper has to be paid as well as the write downs on all the billions wasted, ala Clear and other moments of Gump moves

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Post ID: @1omg+PXVVGo2

Intel growth and diversification is a mirage. Stock price and quarterly results carried on the back of overall economy and tech stock market rally not seen since the 90s. Another factor in profit improvement is the bone-deep cuts to employee benefits in the last few years.

Remember how things ended in the last tech bubble in 2000. When it happens, Intel will be in a precarious position, unlike the last 2 recessions where Intel managed to plow through.

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Post ID: @omb+PXVVGo2

OP here.

@rdd - None from you, of course

@fme - Agreed on IOTG primarily re-selling CCG/DCG product, with some variation and occasional tweaking. Target markets are far different from CCG, so this doesn't take away from client growth. While for IOTG it was a nice quarter, it has far more (embedded) competition and will never substantially grow - it's already a 35-yr business and hasn't cracked $1B/qtr

@bcr - I think it was the first question ~ 26:58 on the mp3, from Ross Seymour at DeutschBank. The Intel AI story is a re-marketing of the Intel Xeon stranglehold on the data center, followed by Nervana futures with very little detail.

Thanks for the responses, everyone.

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Post ID: @ajv+PXVVGo2

Yes OP, all the analysts are stupid, and you are smart. What kond of substantive answer domyou expect to that?

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Post ID: @rdd+PXVVGo2

IoTG is not a real business group.

It simply resells products from Client and DCG into various segments.

This cannibalizes Client group growth.

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Post ID: @fme+PXVVGo2

Then this must be your first visit here, @fll,

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Post ID: @yeg+PXVVGo2

I thought this a board about layoffs not the Yahoo INTC stock forum

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Post ID: @fll+PXVVGo2

OP, good writeup. Agree on the debt issue. Any business would raise a red flag when debt raised from 2bil in 2010 to a staggering more than 13X in just 7 years. However, Intel very much remains Wall Street darling. Good news are exaggerated and bad news padded up, pushing the stock up. This due to the fact many funds are holding huge amounts of Intel stock. For a big company with USD60+bil in revenue, it's easy to move numbers around and make things look good. Things will continue to look good for another few more years. The party continues at Intel.

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Post ID: @bqi+PXVVGo2

OP - Can you tell us approximately where BK's AI answer was in the call? Beginning, 20 min into, toward the end, etc.

Thanks!

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Post ID: @bcr+PXVVGo2

Very well thought out and written OP. I actually have an enormous amount of respect for Stacy Rasgon, as he is one of the few analysts to call out BK on his bullsh-t.

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Post ID: @jgj+PXVVGo2

"The PC market continues to be a challenge for Intel. Growth in the company's PC unit was flat over the previous year with $8.9 billion in sales for the quarter"

Sales will continue to slide especially with competition from AMD. Things are not as rosie as they seem.

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Post ID: @fqd+PXVVGo2

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