Thread regarding Western Digital Corp. layoffs

Western Digital Layoffs 2016 - A Summary

This is worth a repost (from : @He9ePpy-hgi ), I am not the author but it's the best summary of what's going on at WD that I've seen so far...

WD Irvine primarily focuses on hard drives for desktop and laptop computers. Fewer laptops and destops use hard drives - they use a faster kind of storage - solid state drives - to store data. Also, more users store their data (photos, videos, documents, etc.) on the Cloud. Essentially, storage on "the Cloud" means storing data on hard drives that are located far away in a data center, usually, and retrieiving it online.

WD had projected a drop in demand for destop and laptop hard drives. But the projection proved too optimistic. In early 2015, there was a sudden drop in sales. Departments were ordered to cut costs. That resulted in layoffs at WD Irvine, including a number of fairly senior people up to the Director level.

WD Irvine hoped the drop in sales was related to the economy, and that hard drive sales would pick up, but demand just kept plunging. The market reacted. The stock price fell from over $100/share in early 2015, to about $39/share today.

Meanwhile, WD had purchased another company - Hitachi Global Storage (HGST) - which focuses more on the type of hard drives that are used in the Cloud and also that large companies use in data center. The word "Enterprise" refers generally to this type of hard drive. Since enterprise drives are often heavily used, in an environment much more demanding than on the typical home PC or laptop, the enterprise drives must be especially reliable and durable. HGST is very good at this type of harddrive, while WD Irvine has been weaker.

Enterprise drives are now thought to be the primary drives for the future, as data from mobile phones, tablets, and now laptops and PC's is frequently stored on the type of enterprise drives that HGST makes. So WD is now primarily looking to HGST (headquartered in San Jose) to develop and make the hard drives of the future. WD Irvine, it appears, is becoming less relevant to the company, which partially explains the layoffs in Irvine - which many are speculating will be significant and will occur over the next several months. HGST recently completed construction on a new headquarters building in San Jose that WD owns (WD's space in Irvine is leased), and the San Jose-based leader of HGST recently became President of the whole company. There is considerable speculation that WD headquarters will leave Irvine and move to San Jose.

One other factor: WD and HGST both make hard drives at facilities overseas. Now that the companies are merging (which the Chinese government held up for a couple years over, officially at least, anti-trust concerns), manufacturing facilities can be combined. The company doesn't need so many facilities that make the same thing. So thousands of factory workers are expected to be laid off as their manufacturing facilities are closed. WD has already shut down one facility, in Japan. Other operations are expected to be eliminated at faciliities in Malaysia and perhaps other countries.

WD management has promised Wall Street that it will save several hundred millions of dollars by reducing operating expenses at the combined companies, presumably by shutting down manufacturing facilities (overseas primarily) and by reducing redundancies in operations in the US (e.g. no need for separate R&D groups, hardware development, administrative, legal, etc.) and laying off a lot of WD employees - most likely in the thousands, but only top management has an idea of how many employees will be cut.

WD is in the midst of purchasing another company - SanDisk - which does not make hard drives but instead makes solid state memory. This is the type of memory that mobile phones & tablets use, and that laptops & desktops are quickly adopting. HGST also devlops solid state memory, but SanDisk is better at it. There is speculation that HGST will cut its own efforts to develop solid state technology, and that there will be layoffs at HGST in that group.

WD Irvine laid off a lot of good, experienced, talented people in 2015. The scale of layoffs in 2016 is widely believed to be much more significant. Rumors on the Internet are that a wave of large-scale cuts are imminant. Some are reporting that the "slider" manufacturing operation in Penang, Malaysia has been cut within the past few days (sliders are a component of a hard drive) and that the slider manufacturing equipment is now being shipped to WD's plant in Thailand. That means layoffs of many factory workers and even higher-level people in Penang. As mentioned above, this trend of consolidating operations is expected to continue for some time.

That's some background - some of it is solid and well-documented, while some of it is based on widely-believed speculation. Many workers - especially those at WD Irvine - are quite concerned for their future. Workers who have deep experience in hard drives are concerned that since hard drive sales are dropping so fast, they won't be able to find another hard drive-related job, or maybe any job at all. Time will tell.

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| 6821 views | | 11 replies (last March 6, 2017) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+HgUhc6g

11 replies (most recent on top)

For technology, it is very dangerous to look into the past to predict future, only ignorant stock traders up in the exchange do that. Someone looking at the transition of hard drive to SSD using the old tape drive to hard drive will make very serious mistake. Tape and hard drives have their physical limitation while SSD does not.

Those working in hard drives industry should know the end is near. Drive makers like WDC and Seagate are far too late to start working on SSD. At the end, only the chip makers (Intel, Micron, Samsung, Toshiba, SK Hynix). WDC buying Sandisk is the closest thing they can get to the chips but still WDC does not possess the SSD chips technology or production facilities.

Fact is, SSD chips doesn't really cost a lot to make. In fact, with proper economy of scale, SSD costs 1/68th of mechanical hard drive. The lack of moving components for SSD makes it easier to automate SSD production without human hands.

Right now the industry has this up and down of NAND chip supplies causing short term shortages. But this year 2017 is the perfect year that these major SSD chips players heavily invest to expand their production facilities. Samsung is targeting to make 16TB a sub $200 drive by end of 2020. Mechanical hard drive max out at 12TB because the 3.5" casing simply cannot put too many magnetic disk. By that time, there simply has no price point for hard drive or tape drive to exist.

Many will argue the data reliability of hard drive vs SSD. However, the cloud technology completely take out the concern from the equation, a fail storage device regardless a hard drive or SSD simply replaced and fail over to a new device.

The reason why WDC is in trouble because they don't possess the chip technology. Makers like Samsung, Micro, SK Hynix and Intel can always offer better price point, warranty and product spectrum directly to consumers. Any second tier like WDC, Kingston, AData, PNY.... will have a hard time to survive because they cannot compete in low end market against Asian-broker generic makers, and they cannot offer service and warranty like the chip makers. These non-chip making companies' brand existence will count on razor thin margin.

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Post ID: @4Ukie+HgUhc6g

One should avoid making predictions, especially about the future.

There are a few things which we can state with confidence. The first is that the totality of stored data will continue to grow exponentially. This bodes well for WD. We are well into a transitory phase. In the beginning there were libraries and individuals traveled to the library and accessed the data natively (as it was written). As computers and especially computer networks came on line the biggest challenge was simply to catalog and create indices. This activity created even more libraries and indices, however these were typically located in the 'cloud' and instantly and openly accessible. This enabled more research spawned words like metadata and created the always and instantly expectation.

As remarkable as the advancements in areal density are, the 'everything' expectation dwarfs the capacity of local or consumer owned storage. I personally own several TB of digital contents experienced as films and music. It sits at home and I refresh mobile devices from that library. That's seriously old school. With very few exceptions all of that is always available to me in the cloud.

This amounts to a paradigm shift. Musicians have traditionally been paid because many individuals bought a physical copy of their creations. Access to movies (and there by remuneration) was controlled by a finite number of physical film reels. Universities grew up around libraries which contained physical copies. Who gets access and is that fair? Is privacy guaranteed? Who owns the data and who is liable in the case of theft or loss? What are the retention requirements and how are disputes arbitrated. Many uses of data are as input to other algorithms. Often that problem is dominated by mass movement of data. Apparently one could improve the situation by moving the algorithm and leaving the data on the storage in place. Those are important questions and very germane to commercial storage providers and suggest many revenue opportunities which don't exist in the 'dumb' storage model.

I think there is much in all of this to excite those coming into storage. As has been said many times hard drives are anything but dead. As Aries and shingling demonstrate there is still much room for innovation with spinning drives and they have some inherent advantages over SSD. SSD firmware is dominated by algorithms designed to mitigate the obvious issues with flash. As flash changes so must the drives.

Unfortunately there will be growing pains as new use cases come to the fore. One of the forces driving the new use cases is reducing cost and that must come at the expense of WD's total units shipped and margins. Cloud storage will be many times more efficient than consumer dominated storage. As product lines change this displaces some employees.

Still. The demand for storage is increasing exponentially and the devices storing it have an opportunity to express new features and offer customers a better experience. At the end of the day our digital world depends on data, communication and processing power. I think the future for data is at least as bright as the other two legs.

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Post ID: @7bgk+HgUhc6g

If Moore's law applies to SSD, then it applies to HDD as well.

Even though we have HDD now for, several decades, and the newer (so called better) SSD for at least a dozen years, isn't the first computer storage media, the age old "TAPE" still being used??

Storage time for media before data on it goes blank;

SSD ; a few years

HDD ; a dozen years

TAPE ; a few decades

A combination of HDD and SSD together in one drive is the best combination.

I guess HDD we be around for a few dozen years yet!!

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Post ID: @7lih+HgUhc6g

this is a legit summary. gets straight to the point and not troll anyone while doing so

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Post ID: @6tmp+HgUhc6g

isn't it fair to say SSD will reach its limit at one point as well and moore's law will stop applying to SSD just like HDD...'engineering' maybe i should've became a businessman instead.

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Post ID: @3fnk+HgUhc6g

Yes

So will SSD replace hard drives in the next 5-10 years? Who knows. But if it was me just starting out, I'd think carefully of the risks before devoting my career to hard drives.

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Post ID: @1hko+HgUhc6g

To the young talent: There are at least two competing guesses about the future of hard drives. One guess is that hard drives will have a market for many more years. Data creation is exploding - millions or billions of people now store videos on the cloud, everything from surveillance systems to...you name it, now generates data that has to be stored somewhere. The thinking is, hard drives are the most cost-effective way to store huge amounts of data for the next several years.

This is the view that WD/HGST feel is most likely.

A competing view - one that Intel promotes - is that SSD is following Moore's Law. The storage capacity and reliability of SSD will increase at a furious rate, and the cost will plunge.

So will SSD replace hard drives in the next 5-10 years? Who knows. But if it was me just starting out, I'd think carefully of the risks before devoting my career to hard drives.

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Post ID: @1kfn+HgUhc6g

HDD will gradually die down. The TAM is keep decreasing. So my suggestion is: For young junior engineers, since your still have many years to work in you life, leave HDD industry ASAP to pursuit other opportunities. For senior engineers, if you already accumulated many many years of experiences and is not willing to restart from scratch, you should stay since the TAM is shrinking but will not become zero. By doing this way, the HDD business can still survive.

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Post ID: @ogu+HgUhc6g

To the younger person's question... you should probably look elsewhere. The instability with give you health problems. But mainly don't work on spinning disk related projects even as a stepping stone to other things.

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Post ID: @ppv+HgUhc6g

Thanks for the info, so will any of us( young talent, new hires ) still be here say 3-5 years from now, or should we expect to jump industries...I'm 24 and just got hired by WD/HGST and its interesting to learn an old technology like HDD..so much goes into it, that i never expected.

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Post ID: @owz+HgUhc6g

Good post - thank you OP - we should all share this, I've just done it - there are 3 shares so far...

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Post ID: @syg+HgUhc6g

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