Oil prices are set to tumble on Monday after major producers failed to reach a much anticipated deal to freeze crude output, analysts said.
At a meeting in Doha on Sunday, oil producers that supply nearly half of the world’s output didn’t reach a deal to curb their production after Saudi Arabia appeared to walk away from any agreement that didn't include geopolitical rival Iran.
Hopes of a deal had helped oil prices rally by around 30% from February when the idea of a freeze was first suggested by producers, including Russia and several from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. U.S. crude settled at $41.50 a barrel on Friday, while Brent, the international benchmark, ended at $43.84 a barrel.
Now, most of those gains could be eroded in a market that has already endured a turbulent year, analysts say.
“This is an extremely bearish scenario and we will probably see a knee-jerk reaction on the market,” said Abhishek Deshpande, oil analyst at Natixis. “Prices could touch $30 a barrel within days.”
Mr. Deshpande said that most of the recent rally was supported by the idea that some form of a deal could happen. The failed talks will “seriously hurt investor confidence,” he said.
The key sticking point in the negotiations was Iran, which has ruled out capping its own production. Tehran didn’t send a representative to the Doha talks.