.But if the layoff's happen, as speculated on the board ( 1500- 4000).
I have no insight into the possible layoff number. Just dont want to hold bag with the mello roos
What would be the impact on the above housing area's. Is the prices already reflecting that ?
What's wrong with a government job/public sector job? If you could be a fireman, making $150k/year with overtime, and retiring at 50, with a full pension based on your peak compensation (including overtime) for the rest of your remaining life, do you think that is worse off than you working at qualcomm?
Relax. First, summer is almost always a better time to sell a house or condo in this area. Landscaping looks good, kids are out of school, fewer college students in complexes, etc. Second, QCOM employees are not the only people who can afford housing in North County. Biotech is growing at a much faster rate here than communications related industries. The local universities and their attendant hospitals and research facilities are also growing in size. Needless to say, most of their employees make just as much--if not more--than QCOM employees. Many have not been looking for houses because there hasn't been much to choose from. And loans have been difficult to get. A good realtor can generally tell you how to market your house in a way that yields maximum return to your, while steering clear of the sort of buyers who are a total PITA.
117847 here. Us navy ( Spending Tax dollars, not producing anything), UC San Diego ( Really are we a million dollar retirement community), sharp healthcare (See earlier), San Diego county (Yes, spending tax dollars for good governance,like our VPs n Directors), San Diego unified ( Definitely Needed).
I checked the link, not working. BTW please read. I said " Largest PRIVATE employer". Mean private employer producing something and exporting to other regions or countries. Not servicing the employees of the producer. That is how most economy works. we cannot have an economy of just Govt. folks, Military , school ,
Eventually housing market will be affected may be 3-5%. If you know you are losing your job, I suggest to sell it quicker before other houses coming to the market. Summer is the best time to sell
Here you go. Real employment numbers in San Diego county 2014. As you can see Qualcomm isn't the number 1 employer. Qualcomm is roughly 13500, listed elsewhere.
The number of healthcare employees will probably also substantially grow due to obamacare moving forward.
Http://Sourcebook. Sddt.com/Source/?Target=List&luid=VWNQGQM2#.ValJp3Xll4s
Anonymous117847, again you are talking with emotions not with facts or data. Qualcomm is not the largest or even close to being 2nd or 3rd.
Us navy, UC San Diego, sharp healthcare, San Diego county, San Diego unified all have more employees combined. Qualcomm is roughly at 13000. Us navy accounts for 30000 jobs.
Anonymous117852 all that means is more people will have to rent and put up with higher rent prices. Meanwhile good properties will simply be picked up my people with money, so that the gap between wealthier people that buy and hold onto real estate and everyone else gets wider.
In sd with median home price of 500k with median household income of 50k let's see how long does this last
Qualcomm Layoff is nothing. Non event for SD. Really !!.
Just a little less buyer pool ( for houses, cars, UTC, fashion valley, restaurants, Gardners, Shops..).
Once a big layoff happens , everyone who survived also goes in hunker down mode. So its a self serving cycle.
BTW QC is second/third largest private employer around. I don't see anyone hiring 500+ guys n gals a year around .
Anonymous117752,
You are speaking out of emotions. I speak on based on all the data that is available YOY and month after month. A Qualcomm layoff is nothing relative to the meltdown we had back in 2008-2009. Peak to bottom, north county real estate never dipped below the 20% mark, on average it was a 10-15% dip, that has since then been all made up once the weaker hands changed into the stronger. In many parts of north county, it's above peak prices.
Most chinese buyers probably have a two income family, both being in tech. So a job lose from one probably won't drastically impact a $300-400k/year family in keeping their home.
you guys don't know what you are talking about .....there is a real slowdown in real estate in San diego .ask any agent.Nothing is moving and it is not that people are asking too much .the buyers have dried up.
ALSO you are way off base.....it is not that there will be foreclosures..i am saying that there will be a lot of people that have to list their home and move due to lack of another job here.More houses on market - drives the price down!!!!
GET REAL.
There is not going to be a bust cycle until you have a majority of the people that cannot afford the monthly payment. In a low interest environment where a 30 year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower than paying for rent, it's not going happen, even with just one company that starts laying off people.
BTW: if you look at san diego county real estate stats, the volume of transactions last month versus the previous one is roughly the same...The only thing has slowed down is the RATE of price increase from the previous month. Prices still are creeping up, and will probably continue to creep up during the high summer season that traditionally brings in new buyers relocating here.
My previous message was directed at Anonymous117731...Oops.
Anonymous117729, What areas are you talking about? Carlsbad and Carmel Valley and Del Mar and LJ are clearly not in slowdown mode. And the reason why things aren't movign right now is because majority of the SFH on the market right now are asking ridiculous prices, some at close to $500/sqft for a tract home...You have to understand there are some people that do this not because they have to sell. They are doing it so see if they can find a fish to bite and make a killing. Most will just sit there, some will find a foolish fish that overpays... But I guarantee you that a home that is "reasonably" priced with current market prices, will move within a week or two. I was just at an open house two weeks ago for example, and even before I had a chance to put in an offer, there were already 6 offers on the house within 24 hours. Some people are just trying to be greedy and selling at unrealistic prices. One of my neighbors for example, put their house on the market roughly 25% ABOVE peak prices reached in 2006. I didn't say anything, but that house isn't going to move. And I don' think they care, because they carry no mortgage. Strong financial hands don't need to sell, unlike the previous subprime/alt-A stated income buyers from the previous crash a few years ago. People were saying that the real estate crash was going to to take down del mar home values by 40-50%. IT NEVER HAPPENED. Why? People with money can hold out a lot longer than the average sub prime buyer. In fact, Del Mar right now is selling well above peak prices right now.
If you really want to think about it. Look what smart money is doing in san diego right now. Smart money is obviously smarter than you or I and have a lot more resources to do their due diligence. And if you look at what smart money is doing, they are building a lot of new rental complexes and a lot of new construction homes throughout the 56 corridor and in Carlsbad. Why? Because there is a demand for it. There is a huge rental demand because there are simply too many people that no longer can afford to own or qualify to own, and there is a shortage of rental properties. From the time I started renting my places in 2009 until now, rent has increased about 35% where I am. WRTO home ownership, most of North County is already built out, so there's really not that much more supply that will be available moving forward. Pardee in particular is building most of 56 now after years of no activity during the real estate crash. Keep in mind that the majority of buyers for the past few years have all been prime buyers that are well financed and/or well qualified to buy. The real estate crash of 2006-7, wasn't caused because home prices were high. It was caused because of the quality of the borrowers. With the much stricter lending standards, most buyers are not subprime, particularly in the north county areas we are talking about. You won't find too many $1million+homes that are "low income" homes or FHA qualified homes that can be bought with 5% or 0% down. What I would recommend people do, out of safety is get out of any sort of ARM based loan and get a 30 or 15 year fixed mortgage. The rates are so low, it's ridiculous. Your avarage rate of return from other investments is more than the prevailing interest rate of your mortgage, so you can probably take out the loan and arbitrage your cash by investing it elsewhere with a higher return. That's the only reason why I still carry my mortgage and haven't paid it off.
I have heard ' this time is different' story many times before
The bust would happen reasons would be different
you have to ask ....sorry to sound harsh but i mean really ..it will hurt those tremendously .In case u have not noticed th0se areas are already in complete SLOWDOWN mode.VERY Hard to sell anything right now....
open your eyes
No impact on housing. a few thousand employees in a city of millions. not to mention, not everybody is going to sell their house, most will find another job. This doomsday scenarios has got to stop.
Anonymous117720, I agree that prices have risen considerably and in many parts of North County we are above peak prices. But I think people are (erroneously) trying to draw a comparision between Japanese real estate buying frenzy in the 80ies versus Chinese real esate buying frenzy. The Japanese bought real estate out of interest to invest, but most of all Japanese real estate buyers weren't individuals that wanted to permanently relocate to the U.S. The Chinese buying frenzy in a lot of North County (and Bay Area and SoCal in general) is being done by the elite 1% wealthy in China who want to GTFO of China when the economy does collapse. Because every 1%er knows when the economy does collapse, that the wealthy class their will take the blame for it, so many are trying to GTFO as quickly as they can. China has 1Billion people, even a rich 1% of the population is a lot of millionaires/billionaires. Its' quite common for them to send their kids to UCSD or to colleges here, and rather than renting for them to buy their kids a vacation home here so they can visit. Interest rates might make an impact on some buyers, but not the ones that I've seen who buy with cash. Furthermore, it's unlikely the rates will go up quickly. It's more likely to be a long, drawn up rate increase.. Rates have already gone up roughly 1 percent since hitting rock bottom, and we haven't seen a huge slowdown in buying. In fact, up to recently, it's gotten worse... And if you look at the rent versus mortgage+tax+insurance in many places, it's almost comparable. Rents rising much faster these days since for a lot of people, they simply cannot afford or qualify to buy, even during this low interest environemnt. Lastly, we haven't even considered when the banks will start to relax lending standards again. And we all know that banks will eventually do that, because subprime lending is more profitable then lending to responsible people...So it's not a question of if that happens, but simply when.
Good to hear the positive side of it.
Worrisome thing is : my community of say roughly 50 people sample (DelSur) has 25+ folks from qualcomm. This is 700-900K homes with Mello.
Now assuming best case of 4 people got impacted. 2 people keep homes for sale. Suddenly i see that inventory increases across community, across zip, so...
BTW Chinese buyers just took a beating on 40% in their stock markets.
Yes Illumina , fitbit, gopro are doing good. Not really intuit and broadcom.
Million Dollar pocket change markets are never impacted. ( La Jolla, RSF, DelMar ..). I am talking about worker bee homes ( 200K-300K income stream families)
economy is not doing well but stock market is
economy is not doing well but stock market is
I own 3 houses in north county and I feel that right now the prices are stagnant with prices not going anywhere.
Although the prices are being paid in cash but I can tell you most of these engineers/people who would be laid off would have to be moved.
Not everyone wants to a long distance landlord and this would force people to sell their houses.
On top of this the mortgage rates increased in the last few months with more to come. The prices have gone back to 2006 prices in nominal terms.
Japanese have been burnt here when it comes to socal hosing and chinese stock market is not looking good if you read the news..
If you are looking to buy, then wait for the correction to happen.. If someone tells you otherwise or say this time is different then be wary and educate yourself about the boom n bust cycles in the last 30 years which repeated
Just remember folks...That you might be a Q employee and going through financial hardship, but the problem is specifically with Q, not with the local economy in general. If you look at everything else, the economy is actually doing quite well. Q's problem is that the bulk of people's wealth is dependent on stock, where YTD Q's stock has taken a -16% beating. But if you look at all the other pubicly traded companies that that employ people in SD, things are quite good for them. For example, illumina is doing great. intuit is at a 52 week high. Broadcom is at a 52 week high (though I think next year they are going to have layoffs), Fitbit IPO'd, and a lot of biotech doing well.
I'm pretty active in buying real estate in NorthCounty and it's in my opinion that a layoff from Qualcomm or any one single employer is not going have a noticeable affect on housing in north county. On the low end, things rent/cashflow so well and there are so many people that cannot afford to own, that they have no choice to rent, and those people don't just work at Q but other tech places as well. On the high end, the majority of these high end purchases aren't from Q engineers starting out. A lot of these $1million+ places are cash purchases from overseas, particularly chinese folks that are looking to immigrant here, but setting up a business/shop here to get their visa. For them, $1-2million is pocket change. I've been looking to buy another house for my parents here, and the better homes is still really competitive. It's quite common a good home has 10+offers on them within 24 hours of going on the market, and half of those will be all cash offers at full asking price.