- Meet the scaled back guidance on revenue, but only barely.
- Miss or barely beat guidance on profit. Could even be an operating loss.
- Gross margin likely to be VERY low (<40%) yet again.
- Forward guidance will likely be muted, attributed to slowing PC sales.
- Analysts will ask tough questions about why we are seeing softer recovery when AMD/NVDA are unable to meet the ridiculously high demand.
- Stock will drop 10% after hours and likely be at ~$18 on the day after.
- This may prompt some panic actions from board, perhaps firing the CFO.
- If the stock really tanks the next day ( <$15), they may have to fire the CEO, but even then it is unlikely to happen right away. If stock stays depressed, Pat will be out by end of the year.
8 replies (most recent on top)
@dhn tools have been bagged. We have effectively been in warm down for a year now. The issue is there is still a huge fixed cost incurred. This is why gross margin will be horrendous.
My thinking is that there will be some kind of warm down during December. There is a lot of historical precedence for this kind thing in Intel's past.
None of the logic factories (except F28) ran anywhere near capacity this quarter — internal discussion was that there was so much excess unsold inventory that there was no demand to make more. OR ramped down P1276 faster than planned under the guise of focusing on 18A (ha!). F34 fumbled with the fact that there was no demand for the P1276 die they were qualified to make. AZFSM played games with their capacity; 18A will now startup in F42 (using mostly underutilized tooling from P1274 - good luck!) and the F52 shell will sit underutilized until there are actual customers for 18A. Seriously ENRON level accounting shenanigans going on in FCE/FI to hide/push out capital spend.
Q3 will be a miss and likely to have other delays in process and products announced. What will be worse are the Q4 and Q1 results as the impacts of the brain drain from the voluntary separations. It will take a little while for the impact of losing all of that knowledge and experience to be felt. Look back at what happened after the 2016 ACT... still haven't recovered. Revenue will continue to drop.
I am sure Zinsner will BS his way through the analyst questions. Last time he blamed the earlier than planned move to Ireland. What will it be this time? Pat will continue to make BS excuses about how the market is softening.
Sales here - it's a miss. I don't know how much but we did not beat the street. I can only hope DZ is fired
Terrible. Gigantic miss again. Otherwise, they would like to show that the 80% miss from Q2 was just a fluke, and earning would take place on 24th.
DOOOOOOOOOOOOM...