Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Looks like the retest is happening and got below the $19.61 monthly S2 so that indicates a strong enough level of selling that if the market and sector retest can last more than..today..then on to $18.50 and failure there should enable the mid teens.

The bounce from the initial lows caused a lot of shares to be exchanged and clearly now anyone who bought the sept lows is dumping those shares in December. Volume now declining but would pick up in a big way if the price gets below the $18.51 Sept low.

With something like $30 maybe the highest possible in the near future (and that is assuming the company is broken up substantially), then anywhere from $7 to $12 should prove an excellent entry point. It's possible that before the price can get there the board will agree to sell Altera, Mobileye and maybe some of the Product group.

If they don't then I would expect an activist shareholder to do a hostile takeover, fire the board, then go full-Eddie Lampert-Kmart on the conglomerate.

Forbes has an article explaining why these lows may be worth catching.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2024/12/16/why-intels-foundry-may-be-set-for-a-comeback/

For entry and accumulation, I'm more focused on statistical measures, letting price tell the truth, but there is a narrative which provides context for why any price is worth chasing.

Maybe that narrative will break down, as it has many times in the past. Likely the statistical measures will reveal that truth before anything is public, one way or the other.

The narrative which I think lack any credibility (for now at least) is that Intel is going bankrupt or will somehow dissolve in a breakup. The components have substantial value. They just need to have capacity scaled to match the available market.

The headcount reductions are part of that, along with program cancellations and reduced tool purchases, till the capabilities match the proven demand and not some ppt nonsense.

Looking at the monthly pivots, and if NVDA can retest enough to help the sector retest get more serious, S2 at $19.61 looks promising.

As previously stated, I think any downside from here either takes a material deterioration in the company prospects or a sector retest.

If the whole market joins the semi index in retesting (i think it will very soon), then that should enable the semi index to do one of those deep dives it is known and loved for doing. Then Intel could get further into the mid teens.

I think ELT will do everything humanly possible to move away from negative surprises, and it also appears (much to the chagrin of the intel haters) that 18A is doing ok.

Positive catalysts seem more likely in the short term, although the BOD could sc--w the pooch yet again with the CEO selection (maybe choose Bob Swan and Brian K as co-ceos just to prove a point that no one wanted proven).

That potential train wreck aside, Foundry will eventually pick up a customer or two and Products using TSMC can at least be more competitive.

I'd see the recent highs as the upper range limit, and that the range remains until the company sells off some of the conglomerate. Even a full breakup would seem to have a hard time getting past the $30s.

If there is to be no meaningful change, except a commitment to do IDM2.0 'smarter', then up is not the direction for a long time to come, imo.

If Intel were ever a trade it is one now.

I would not be surprised to see it wander within a reasonably small range.

I think the market has to eventually drive it into the low teens or high single digits, to force the breakup, as D-mb Dave has already stated that the strategery is to keep IDM 2.0, but do it 'smarter'.

D-mber Michelle has stated that the issue with Products is that they are not efficient yet, and Naga claims the days of Max Output are done, and that cost efficiency is the way forward.

What they are NOT stating is that there is no real synergy between Foundry and Pros, because x86 has no moat and will almost certainly never find another market where it can have a moat. The hordes of ARM designers are beating x86 to the punch, and Foundry would have to be 2 nodes ahead of TSMC for x86 to be really competitive.

That ELT does not see this is a demonstration of their lack of strategic capability.

But reducing cost pushes out the day when this failing strategy is replaced. A new CEO might help ELT get real about the situation, but the Board picks the CEO so that argues for someone coming who just wants to be more efficient at losing to ARM.

So the $18.50 to $26 range may stick around for a quarter or two, until the market forces price discovery, and when that happens there will be far better shorts to be found than Intel.

i think you are in the area of white noise now

Dead Cat Bounce
aka
Su---r Rally

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

LOL, heck yeah! Another day like today and it'll bounce back up to the hole it was in 5 days ago!