Give your opinions on whether or not you think America is in a recession.
52 replies (most recent on top)
US inflation being caused by printing too much money is a QAnon idea.
Not based in reality.
You're confused about the cause of inflation.
Read the Wikipedia article as the start of educating yourself.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
The pandemic was what's called a supply shock.
@1gsl+1uDjiIgK
The people who down-voted your comment...ouch, a little too close to home.
YOLOing and competing with the Jones' right into the food bank line.
If you work at General Motors and are falling behind on payments, it's because you are living way beyond your means. It's that simple.
In Michigan, the average yearly salary is $49,834! Can you imagine getting by on $49,834??? Instead of blaming the economy or the president for your financial troubles, you need to take a deep look at yourself, your spending habits and your situation. A raise will not help you. You'll spend every dime of it and borrow more. The problem is with YOU. How much emergency money do you have saved?
The maximum unemployment payment in Michigan is currently capped at $362 per week. That's $1,448 before taxes (or $1,013 if you do a fast math of 30% reduction). Can you pay all of your bills, buy groceries and incidentals on $1,448? Or will you lose the house and have your cars repo'd? There are so many people here that think they are above this conversation but I've seen/met scores of people who lost it all 2007-2009. Time to get real people.
More cuts are probably coming this week. It feels like one.
@wey+1uDjiIgK
"No, they need a raise."
Inflation is caused by government debt and the Fed printing dollars. They inflate the currency and pay interest on debt and prices go up.
The answer isn't to inflate everything as a result even further, including pay. That just exacerbates the problem.
The answer is for a balanced Federal budget AND for the Federal Reserve to not print money which devalues the currency.
Corporations and citizens have to pay more for everything because of this.
"They just need an attitude adjustment, right?"
No, they need a raise.
Corporate profits can be a tiny bit smaller.
There are so many different definitions of a recession but the one I am familiar with is 2 consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth. From that definition I’d say, no, we are not in a recession. Having said that I do recognize lots of folks are struggling with higher food, energy and housing prices that have outpaces wages. Plus when you look at labor statistics private sectors jobs have been on the decline this year. What has kept the employment numbers positive is mostly government, healthcare and part time work.
So to me the economy is possibly strained for some and I think the Federal Reserve recognized this with the interest rate cuts last week. I would be not be surprised if there is a descent sized market correction some time in the next year plus an uptick in unemployment but, again, no I don’t think we are officially in a recession.
@nmz+1uDjiIgK
"We're not. People are in a sour mood because prices went up during the pandemic and afterwards, and haven't come down again."
Do you mean the 78% of Americans that live paycheck to paycheck?
How about the seniors on a fixed income who choose between groceries or medicine?
What about the single mothers who put their kid's school supplies on buy-now-pay-later plans?
Those people?
They just need an attitude adjustment, right?
I suspect you are a few paychecks away from losing everything, just like so many. Your callousness will come back to haunt you.
*Record profits because of inflation (not demand or higher productivity):
https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/dec/10/what-do-high-corporate-profits-have-do-high-inflat/
*78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/
Record debt
*US Debt is at $35 Trillion
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
*Household Debt: 18 Trillion, Q2 2024
Student Loans: $1.59 trillion
*Credit card balances: $1.14 trillion
*Auto loans: $1.63 trillion
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Bank
*Delinquency rate: 3.25%; HIGHEST SINCE 2011
*Mortgage Applications at Lowest Level in 28 Years
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-applications-at-lowest-level-in-28-years-7966026
*124,000 tech workers laid off in Jan-August 2024
https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilsayegh/2024/08/19/the-great-tech-reset-unpacking-the-layoff-surge-of-2024/
Retail store closings
*By May of 2024, 3,200 brick-and-mortar stores closed, a 24% increase YOY
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/store-closures-surging-2024-family-dollar-rue21-cvs-rite-aid/
*Analysts at UBS think the total number of US retail closures could reach 45,000 over the next five years
*11 retail brands plan to close 1,601 stores by end of year.
https://news.yahoo.com/news/nearly-1-300-stores-closing-100701728.html
*$1 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans will come due in the next two years at higher interest rates
https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed-toward-a-crisisban
*The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/commercial-real-estate-crisis-empty-offices/674310/
*The national Commercial Real Estate vacancy rate stood at 19.4%, up 200 basis points year-over-year (still increasing despite RTO trend)b
https://www.commercialedge.com/blog/national-office-report/
*2,454 banks closed in 2023 (difficult to get a good number for 2024)
https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/banking/banks-closing-branches
All the big companies, including GM, keep announcing record profits every quarter.
Doesn't sound like a recession.
We're not.
People are in a sour mood because prices went up during the pandemic and afterwards, and haven't come down again.
The rate of inflation has come down to a bit more than 2 percent, which is normal, but that just means slower price increases, not price cuts.
Actual price cuts throughout the economy is called deflation, and that's a bad thing.
It crashes economies Great Depression style.