I remember a lot of people tried to compare Broadcom VMware acquisition to the Microsoft Activision one. There is absolutely no parallel besides that they are tech acquisitions of historically large size.
In the Microsoft-Activision deal, they had the support of
- Consumers (gamers)
- Employees of both companies
- Antitrust approvals from most countries besides the US and the UK (which later budged)
- Are in the video game sector, which is mostly out of the way of national security or geopolitical concerns
Also, not to forget Microsoft is a $2.6 Trillion company that dwarfs Activision in size (thus can absorb without making drastic, desperate cuts like Broadcom has to), and they are loved by lawmakers and the US government alike as Microsoft has built trust with the regulators over the last 2 decades since they've been accused of being a monopoly.
The only entities against the deal are some rivals, especially Sony (which also convinced UK CMA to initially block the deal) and the FTC, which has had court defeats, and since learned its lessons and is in the process of strengthening the legal guidelines along with the DOJ that is likely effective from Q1 next year.
Now, let's look at the Broadcom-VMware deal.
Now this deal is like a stinky garbage that nobody wants around them besides Wall Street and Jim Cramer.
- Consumers (customers) are getting ready to get the he-l out once the deal goes through
- Employees of VMware can't stand the sight of Broadcom or Hock Tan
- Gotten antitrust approvals from all necessary countries except for the two that matter the most (US and China, and no the "no legal impediment" BS in the US does not mean approval)
- Are both in industries highly sensitive to national security and geopolitics (cloud and especially semiconductors)
Broadcom, or rather Avago, is a bug, but still a much smaller company than Microsoft trying to absorb a company as big as Activision-Blizzard. Avago has had a very dubious reputation for their draconian, PE-like shop and chop antics, have been sued and fined for antitrust violations from many countries including the US, EU, and South Korea, and has been under the watchful eyes of the US intelligence communities and the lawmakers for their ties to foreign, non-friendly interests. It having roots in Singapore doesn't help at all either considering Singapore is a money laundering front for the CCP.
I think the deal falling apart is Broadcom's, specifically Hock Tan's karma. I can't predict the future but the chances this deal will go through seems pretty grim. If the deal does go through, it will be a disaster for everyone involved including Broadcom itself.