Looks like the deal is dead.
China would have already approved it, if they wanted to.
What are other folks thinking? Is it still possible the deal will go through?
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All I'll add in terms of public update is that the repot today was that Hock Tan had a meeting the US with China representatives on the weekend and "hammered out" a deal that just has to get through the bureaucratic chain of command.
This would line up with the public commentary on Monday from Tan that the deal will be done soon and it's not a "political" issue.
Take from that what you will. The share price has also been climbing and puts value dropping implying a deal extension or closure is more likely than abandoning.
Non-Employee.
If the deal doesn't go through, I would imagine that MD and SL will take some of the same steps that Broadcom was going to do. In particular, they may sell some of the BUs separately since it seem no other company wanted to swallow VMware whole.
Look, anything is possible. It’s just that some things are more likely than others.
The Chinese regulatory regime is opaque—intentionally so—so the only people who really know what’s going to happen are in the CCP government apparatus. Speculation ranges from Hock Tan’s “soon” to the market’s “50% chance” to random VMW employees on TheLayoff saying “It’s for sure dead.”
If the Chinese approve the deal before the deadline it definitely could still close.
How can the deal close beyond the outside date?
The deal will go through, by hook or by crook.
It may run beyond the outside date, but it will go through. And yes, a deal can happen post the outside date.
China will approve.
Post from TheLayoff.com
From Encyclopedia.com:
“ ON OR ABOUT
Near; approximately; without significant variance from an agreed date.
The phrase on or about is used to avoid being bound to a more precise statement than is required by law. For example, when an individual seeks to purchase a home, the date when the transaction is closed and the legal title and possession are transferred from seller to buyer is ordinarily scheduled on or about a particular date. The phrase is used to indicate that the parties recognize the fact that, although the exact date might not be convenient for both of them, the transaction should be completed as close to that date as is practicable.”
Offer letters have already gone out. There’s no way Broadcom would have done that if they didn’t think this was in the bag, one way or another. Note that the offer letters state “Closing Date” is on or about 10/30.
The consensus where I am is that this deal is unlikely to go through. Of course it is all just speculation. China has no reason to approve and Broadcom does way too much business in china to Ignore the regulator. You would reasonably expect that VMware leadership will try to follow through on some of the changes like accelerated transformation to SaaS, focus on profitability and share price, probably a decent level of workforce reduction, probably continue on the path of simplification of business processes. So I don't think there is an outcome where "Nothing Changes" just maybe not as extreme as uncle hock was planning.
Biden called Xi a dictator recently....will be interesting to see how his meeting goes in SF.
Yes.
Seriously?