I think they won’t !
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I remember reading that SAMR had undisclosed conditions for Broadcom. The delay could be because of the bureaucracy in getting things lined up to meet those conditions.
Maybe this deal is being held to have bargaining power in the upcoming meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. Would Biden care enough about the success of this close for it to have any sway? What is the benefit this brings to the US? A layoff costing jobs? Biden would look to lower unemployment and create jobs to brag about on his campaign in the 2024 election coming up. This is neutral since no matter what happens, it lowers his numbers.
Broadcom has a lot of business in China and so doesn't want to take risks, which gives SAMR the opening to make demands to approve the deal. Now Hock is going through the steps to jump through those hoops. That makes the most sense to me. Other than making a statement, which has already been made loud and clear, it seems like a missed opportunity for China if they let this deal die. The type of gain from Broadcom is not what the US would want, switching from innovation focus to core product focus. If anything it would stagnate technology by pairing Broadcom and VMware together.
The boards of vmware and broadcom can renegotiate the November 26th deadline FYI
There is more chance of the current management actually knowing what they are doing and running the company well.
Soon