https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-considering-curbing-China-s-cloud-access-official-says
today's news. with growing tension between us and china on chips, ai, etc., there is no reason china will approve the Broadcom deal soon.
For those who like to read the details. We are in “it” now. These days were coming. It was just a matter of time. There will be lots of collateral damage.
https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-items-controls-to-prc
Exactly! Broadcom still needs to be able to keep the lights on while it figures out a way to disentangle itself from China.
The question isn't why would anyone do business in China. Of course companies including BC have figured out they will eventually lose all China revenue after a Taiwan war, due to sanctions.
The question is, is BC ready to burn bridges with China at THIS moment and give up $10B of annual revenue and replace with VMW revenue?
Doubt Wall St will support that. BC's stock price isn't going to collapse in the short term from losing this deal, VMware's will
And the OP’s point of the news link suggests more sanctions on cloud software! So VMware revenue from China is gone too.
Poof. Gone. Done. Forget about it. It doesn’t exist deal or no deal. It’s GONE.
China just wiped out 11.9B plus maybe a few more Billion in revenue from VMware that no long led exists if they approve the deal or don’t approve the deal.
China = Russia = Iran = North Korea
(As far as business markets go.)
No amount of approval is going to return a dollar from China. Approve or don’t approve the result is the same.
Focus on the $400B market that doesn’t involve China and move forward quickly. Customers are eager to start spending again. They don’t have much of a choice. Cloud Bankrupt is the new trend.
This is all bullsh-t political posturing which will have zero impact on the growth in China and position the US to create another unnecessary war.
Dude,
They’re going to lose the $10B either way! The China economy is not going to sustain $11.9B yoy moving forward. That’s where you’re missing the point. There is no more market for chips in China!
What are you going to sell them, 386 technology? Come on man.
Dude where is Broadcom going to make up that $10B to support its very own operations and pay for the interest on VMware loan? Even if they want to they won’t be able to do it overnight. C’mon man.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/kroll-senior-executive-barred-from-exiting-china-report/ar-AA1hr8Yl
China taking business leaders hostage as bargaining chips.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mitsubishi-motors-exit-china-production-nikkei-2023-09-27/
Mitsubishi exiting China.
https://www.crn.com/news/managed-services/kyndryl-to-separate-its-china-business-report
Kyndryl exiting China.
Citi shedding its business in China
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citigroup-confirms-sale-of-china-wealth-unit-to-hsbc/ar-AA1hUIzX
China takes another executive hostage from Nomura.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-bans-nomura-senior-investment-banker-leaving-mainland-sources-2023-09-25/
Vanguard out in China.
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-10-18/vanguard-sells-stake-in-ant-group-joint-venture-accelerating-china-exit-102117954.html
China wants custody of its panda bears back from the Smithsonian national zoo in fight over child support extortion, or something.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/china-xi-pandas-political-three-bears-exit-us
Italy exiting China.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/italy-wants-to-exit-the-belt-and-road-but-without-curbing-ties-with-china/
And the list continues.
If broadcom continues to do business there, is it even safe? But why the mass media silence?
180 incidents in the last two years with the us military. 300 total. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-says-china-has-stepped-up-risky-behavior-in-south-china-sea/ar-AA1io5J4
The US embassy in China issues travel warning:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html
“Summary: Reconsider travel to Mainland China due to the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, including in relation to exit bans, and the risk of wrongful detentions.“
why on earth would anyone do business with China?
The China situation is dire. Get your people out, safely, and quietly. China takes political hostages. Act accordingly. Don’t be the last one out.
Investors still wondering how the deal closes without China? China is over. Move on. The deal proceeds with new revenue targets. Unless China has blackmailed someone, this deal moves forward. The question is, what human cost will be paid to exit China by US companies?
Marked safe from China?
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-claims-beat-us-laser-defense-system-continuous-cool-down-2023-8?op=1
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/04/china-building-space-missiles-and-lasers-to-blind-us-satellites-intel-report-says/
1 megawatt laser we-pon small enough to fit in a soda can. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3162566/chinese-megawatt-laser-powerful-small-enough-be-used-satellite
https://asiatimes.com/2023/08/china-claims-laser-we-pon-gain-on-us-space-dominance/
https://www.newsweek.com/mysterious-green-lasers-hawaii-chinese-satellite-nasa-1780468
https://www.livescience.com/62973-china-laser-g-ns.html
We live in a world where the president of the United States of America has likely been compromised by China according to obvious facts released to the public in addition to house investigations etc. The POTUS suggests the number one threat to America is global warming, yet US airforce generals are warning to prepare for ww3 with China.
As businesses exit, as war drums pound, chip technology from Broadcom and other sources will become critical to manufacture on US and allied soil. Avoiding ww3 is the new hope.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43328/u-s-satellites-are-being-attacked-everyday-according-to-space-force-general
he won’t do that until he can find a way to replace that 10B in revenue.
And there won't be $10B in revenue because China's economy is imploding.
Broadcom closing the deal = no $10B in revenue
Broadcom not closing the deal and business as usual = no $10B in revenue
That's critical thinking.
It's gone man, the $10B in revenue is gone. It's almost as if someone should have planned for this happening a few years before stuff hits the fan.
As in, precisely the same way HT exited from Russia YEARS before everyone else got shown the door and sales revenue in Russia went to $0.00. The guy isn't an id--t. He exited Russia years ahead of schedule and he'll do it again for China.
There is NO $10B left in China win, lose, or draw. That game is OVER. Even without VMware, that game is over.
You seem to forget that Hok loves $$$. He might want to get out of China but he won’t do that until he can find a way to replace that 10B in revenue.
Is that critical thinking enough for you?
It's almost as if BC should acquire a massive company 3 times its yearly revenue to fill in the gap, perhaps? Yeah, maybe they can try that. Interesting...
he won’t do that until he can find a way to replace that 10B in revenue.
Will it still be 10B with the govt new regulations ?
You seem to forget that Hok loves $$$. He might want to get out of China but he won’t do that until he can find a way to replace that 10B in revenue. Apple has been moving away from dealing with and relying on China but they are doing it in stages. Not gonna happen overnight. BC cannot pay its VMware debt load without Chinese revenue. Is that critical thinking enough for you?
And there's no reason to care that they don't approve the deal.
This means - get out of china fast! There's no business to be had in China.
The deal closes as scheduled. What rock is everyone living under thinking this deal is dead? For what? So Broadcom can sell something to a government that they'll be restricted from doing business with? I mean seriously, critical thinking skills are not very deep under the troll bridge.
Bingo