Thread regarding SAP layoffs

Looking behind the Q2 results

The Q3 results were good, the stock shot up 5% ( and then giving back 2% today). Nonetheless the results were surprisingly good. However, one key metric that gives me concern is index on our Profit Margin, which was up 17% YOY from Q3.2022. The increase in Profit Margin was driven by lower expenses ( vs more profitable sales) and our expenses were lower because of the very large layoffs we incurred in Q2 of this year.

While an increase in net income or revenue is great, the most important indicator of how well the company is doing is to increase our net profit margin, meaning we maximize how much money we keep from each dollar we earn.

The point being that the danger zone is when companies learn that they can drive profit margin by lowering expenses ( = more layoffs) vs more profitable deals, this almost always has a catastrophic ending for the employees. It becomes a vicious circle of expense reductions (layoffs) to keep the market happy - a road well travelled by some companies who are no longer around. We already know that as the company shifts from On Prem to Cloud, the latter will not require any where near the HC we have in place today.

Hopefully SAP will not become dependent on expense reduction as a way to drive increases in Profit Margin, because if they do, it will not turn out so well for many of us next year. Keep your eye on the relationship between Profit Margin and how it is derived - if it is achieved because of expense reduction in Q4 combined with declining sales in ERP/Software installations, then it would be time to worry.

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| 1541 views | | 1 reply (October 22, 2023) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1pbxlxrY

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As far as SAP pursuing its strategy on becoming an AI provider, we have just seen the beginnings of the type of investment SAP will need to make to drive a successful AI platform by our goal of 2025.

Two weeks ago SAP announced an investment of €250 million in a new office complex located in Berlin to house up to 1,300 employees who will work on AI and related projects.

We should expect much more investments to drive this project over the next 12- 24 months. Key will be how we will be funding this major investment, especially in light of increasing inflation barriers, hopefully we get these funds not by expense reduction but better and more profitable deals ( which typically Cloud revenue is not known for spinning off big profits as we used to get with Software sales)

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Post ID: @3ckw+1pbxlxrY

I think another question will be if our good profit margins will be sufficient to fuel our expanding focus into AI Business capabilities.  We surely face an ever increasing group of competitors who are also targeting AI as their strategic target for the years ahead.  It will be a race as to which of these companies can develop the AI functions which the market is looking for and as well who can deliver these on a fast track basis - coming in second or third in this race will be of little value.

This will require  a significant investment as we bring in new talents, build new teams and maybe acquisitions to support this AI strategy.  The question will be if our Profit Margins can also support this new focus area and "how" will these Profit Margins be attained   -    i.e. continued expense reductions or more profitable sales?

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Post ID: @2nda+1pbxlxrY

I hope SAP learns from Cisco who used Layoff announcements to defend its share price and boost its profit margin. Cisco has been in a death spiral with no new innovation whilst selling commodity hardware and software. At the height of COVID, it should have reached to the moon because of its remote access software, but if anyone has used WEBEX, you would realise, as the market has, it was just nothing more then the emperor with new clothes!
I hope Christian and SAP realise now is the time to capture new market share and focus on expansion rather then pleasing investors.

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Post ID: @2cgy+1pbxlxrY

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