Thread regarding VMware layoffs

Broadcom stock potential growth

Just a discussion about how much this stock can perform in the future.
I'm deciding if it's better to keep it or divest and put everything on my diversified S&P 500 ETF (on accumulation base)

This stock is mainly driven by earnings, dividend and P/E ratio.

This company is for sure not viewed as a Nvidia, Tesla or some high tech and futuristic visionary company, not even as a FAANG type company, but just a driven high revenue and high earning stock, but at the moment in the last months it gained also some attention due to AI.

At the moment the total capitalization is about 400B$ with a P/E about 30 and a dividend just above 2%.

Comparing to other competitors/similar companies like TSMC P/E 16 (but not American), Qualcomm P/E 20 (which is even gaining a lot of momentum for the new SnapDragons CPUS) and Intel (ok not in its best moment) P/E forward about 20, Avago seems quite over evaluated at the moment.

To continue grow it will need an increase of earnings to keep its P/E at a sustainable level and push the dividend up.
How much this is sustainable even with VMware acquisition?

The semiconductor division seems at its maximum, difficult to expand...
I think VMW could increase total earnings of a few billions (3?) $ yearly not more (with due cuts)

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| 1721 views | | 10 replies (last December 2, 2023) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1pRATq75

10 replies (most recent on top)

Right now the SP500 index itself is not very diversified. It’s market cap weighted, meaning the largest companies influence it most and thus it is highly tech focused. That said, diversification is generally better than holding your net worth in your employers stock. AVGO has good and bad features. The bad feature is a huge debt stack and an ever growing share count. If something goes wrong, it will go very wrong.

On the plus side, they can (theoretically) continue to purchase and dismantle other companies.

On the accounting side, much can be shuffled under the carpet with the constant acquisition model. History has seen major blow ups in that model. Not saying BC will have that, but it is something to watch for.

This coming quarter (eps release Dec 7) should look ok. 2024, the cash flow will show a hit against the VmW purchase, debt stack higher and larger share count. That is a digestion process of the acquisition.

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Post ID: @1skt+1pRATq75

I agree on the overevaluaton. Also consider that Hock is 70 y.o. now...not a young boy anymore...

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Post ID: @snw+1pRATq75

I’m selling most and keeping a few for speculation. It’s overpriced at the moment. I sell a few each time it goes up.

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Post ID: @lfn+1pRATq75

get out of it in Jan... during the new tax year. No one stays on top forever..

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Post ID: @tup+1pRATq75

If Apple drops its $15B contract with Broadcom, look out ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-19/apple-in-house-technologies-team-eyes-making-cameras-screens-modems-batteries-lp5j5h6b

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Post ID: @mrz+1pRATq75

With very few exceptions, the status of Wall Street darling is a temporary nirvana. Companies that just cut and butcher don’t stay on top for very long.

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Post ID: @pqw+1pRATq75

While contemplating on the objects of the senses, one develops attachment to them. Attachment leads to desire, and from desire arises anger.

Anger leads to clouding of judgment, which results in bewilderment of memory. When memory is bewildered, the intellect gets destroyed; and when the intellect is destroyed, one is ruined.

Bhagavad Gita: Chapter 2, Verse 62 63

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Post ID: @gih+1pRATq75

The strategy.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/30/broadcom_strategy_vmware_customer_impact/

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Post ID: @sta+1pRATq75

lol Tesla tech company.

Diversifying always a good idea but those that didn't and stick with A GO, made out like bandits.

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Post ID: @lju+1pRATq75

CSCO went from 90 to 9 in a few weeks in 2000. I lost my whole world.

Bible is the only truth.

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Post ID: @yzk+1pRATq75

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