Read the 10K

https://investors.broadcom.com/static-files/d2030782-0993-4f3a-89e8-0a6efd58c552

If you haven't familiarized yourself with the risks that Broadcom lays out, they're worth understanding.

You can also do a search for "china" and better understand the revenue from china and through china so you're more informed with your constant ridiculous speculation.

Pay attention to the risks laid out in a majority of the 10k document. Each risk seems to spell doom for AVGO under certain circumstances. The chip business is very cyclic.

Then try to understand why AVGO might be interested in a $400B private cloud market, investing heavily in an industry that is not their primary industry.

Why did AVGO buy CA and Symantec? Why are they trying to buy VMware?

Could this be because they want to de-risk from the hardware business and diversify?

Read the section on RSUs and employee retention through equity grants. Understand that more clearly.

Read the section on Net Revenue. AVGO's top customers are moving their chip manufacturing contracts to US Based foundries. In addition, it says:

Although we recognize revenue for the majority of our products when title and control transfer in Penang, Malaysia, we

disclose net revenue by country based primarily on the geographic shipment or delivery location specified by our distributors,
OEMs, contract manufacturers, channel partners, or software customers. In each of fiscal years 2022 and 2021, approximately
35% of our net revenue came from shipments or deliveries to China (including Hong Kong). However, the end customers for
either our products or for the end products into which our products are incorporated, are frequently located in countries
other than China (including Hong Kong). As a result, we believe that a substantially smaller percentage of our net revenue is
ultimately dependent on sales of either our product or our customers’ product incorporating our product, to end customers
located in China (including Hong Kong).

This doesn't seem to suggest anything at ALL about increasing business in China. In fact, it reads as an exit plan from China and a de-risk plan from the highly volatile chip business.

Can the business that goes through China be diverted to other countries? Very likely, if I'm reading this right.

In addition, Taiwan has a near permanent exception to the US Sanctions and the revenue guidance in the 10k does not specify which PART of china revenue is generated (however it declares hong kong and beijing by name in sections). Revenue from customers in Taiwan would certainly be classified as "china", however they do not fall under SAMR governance and control. Taiwan falls under DPP and they have their own president (but they're still "one china"). That means 90% of the chip manufacturing in Taiwan is unaffected by SAMR or sanctions, but those chips can't be sold to china or china factories. Does that matter? Most of the end customers are NOT in china so simply move the factory assembling the products out of china (cars).

AVGO went through struggles a few years ago with Hauwei sanctions that ended a substantial amount of business or them. The writing seems to be on the wall -get out!

Just try to understand the region and business model a little more deeply when speculating. Just saying "broadcom isn't going to walk away from $12B" is like cheering for the Lions to win the superbowl. Sure... there's a chance, but the 2022 annual report 10-k spent a lot of time to talk about risks to the business in china specifically, and the idiosyncrasies of trying to run a profitable semiconductor business in the middle of highly regulated and toxic world affairs. $12B is no guarantee. VMware + AVGO, that's another story.

Good luck on closing out this deal and merging with VMware. You've got a great future ahead of you - all of you!

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|If BC abruptly exits China or does something to pi-s them off, BC can expect China to pull |their ridiculous stunts like announce investigations into their land and facilities, random |prosecutions and investigations of key leadership in the country, increase IP theft, etc.

|It's not an easy scenario to just ignore them.

BC has no land or facilities in mainland China. Penang, Malaysia has not to do with China. All they could do is shut down a local sales office or two if BC pulled out

Fůck reading the 10k, I just ran a 5k

Get your k right and go soon it up

If BC abruptly exits China or does something to pi-s them off, BC can expect China to pull their ridiculous stunts like announce investigations into their land and facilities, random prosecutions and investigations of key leadership in the country, increase IP theft, etc.

It's not an easy scenario to just ignore them.

Should that estimate be 158.4%?

58+% layoffs expected 2 days after deals closes.

So yeah, they might be able to reduce their China revenue down to 5% or so in the next 5 years, but that doesn't help them acquire VMW right now.

If some bond market is holding up the deal because they declare SAMR approval is “required”, the fix is to exit China, change the underwriting requirements, and close the deal.

That’s a pretty quick turn of events, allowing the full calendar for due diligence on the chance SAMR approval comes through. It’s a run-out-the clock play before the final field goal.

Why fill your head with 10k info when it is more fun to speculate? Reading is for losers.

Broadcom is working to de-risk their business and uncouple from China, just like every other company out there. The problem is that it will take years, and all or most of the companies that currently build stuff with Broadcom chips in China need to move their manufacturing/assembly elsewhere for this to happen. If Broadcom proceeds with the VMW acquisition without China's approval, not only are they on the hook for huge fines (10% of worldwide revenue) but their products are also blocked from the Chinese market, which impacts 35% of their revenue TODAY. All of those companies that make stuff with Broadcom chips will have to quickly find alternatives (and those companies will take advantage of the situation for sure.)

So yeah, they might be able to reduce their China revenue down to 5% or so in the next 5 years, but that doesn't help them acquire VMW right now.

I see diversifying only to have total enterprise stack control

I recall reading an interview with Hock Tan where he basically said that the margins in the semiconductor space were low (like 3-5%). It's a cutthroat business which heavily competes on price which is the whole reason the business moved to Asia from the US beginning all the way back in the 1960s. The software business is where it's at--huge margins, vendor lock-in, product differentiation. I would agree he might want to get out of chips completely at some point if he can get a nice portfolio of software businesses and streamline them. He may not even care about China in the short-term and just prefer to walk away.

"Most Broadcom investors also know that the company has been diversifying into software for years now. Indeed, in the Q4 report last month, the Infrastructure Software Segment revenue was $1.84 billion, 21% of total revenue. The point is, Broadcom's high-margin software business has nicely diversified Broadcom away from its semiconductor solutions business. (And this is before any consideration of the pending VMware acquisition)."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/broadcom-silicon-software-200649573.html

The expansion of Broadcom's software business aligns with the company's broader strategy to diversify its revenue streams and reduce reliance on its semiconductor business. By leveraging their expertise in software development and their strong customer relationships, Broadcom is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for software solutions in various industries.

Thread regarding VMware layoffs

Read the 10K

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