Curious if anyone knows more definitively whether the $1.5B termination fee applies if the Nov 26th deadline comes and goes without Chinese approval, both companies don't announce by that date that they will proceed with the merger except in China (which many on Wall Street say is not very likely), and the current contract expires? I'm guessing the answer is No, but curious if anyone has better insights into what normally happens/has happened in the past in such similar circumstances in terms of the termination fee.
At this point, if there is no termination fee if the contract expires, I would think that this is what BC would prefer. Having said that, my expectation is also that if that happens, then there will likely be some class action lawsuits files against them, something which they may have anticipated, already done that math on ,and figured would still cost them less than paying a $1.5B if they terminated the deal before the November 26th deadline. Seeing as nobody stepped up with a counter offer to buy VMware during the initial "Go-Shop" period, I'm also guessing that potential interested acquiring parties believed that BC was over paying for VMware and so were not interested, but may now be salivating at the possibility that this may not happen and so waiting in the wings to make a lower offer if the deal falls through, thinking that Michael Dell, the VMware executive team and some of the other large investors will be desperate to sell at any price after having missed out on their big payday after having come so close to closing this and laughing all the way to the bank.