Guyana Production declined 10,000bopd Month on Month

Looking like the sacred cow Guyana is starting to Plateau hard.

904,000bopd in May. Still impressive and above design capacity production but, some challenges are imminent.

Lisa will shortly be sub 100,000 bopd and expecting average Aug production to be south of 866,000 bopd.
At this point forecasting a -200 bopd drop every single day…
This will raise alarms in the God Pod where additional water injection will be coupled to the system. The 4 FPSOs reached Peak in May…now it’s a daily drop until the next FPSO added.

#Forecast #Oil #Production

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Early phase Liza 1 and 2 Topside process rotating equipment has substantial vibration and pipeline stress issues. This will rear its ugly head sooner rather than later…
Also onsite production teams are operating well chokes in a short term gain philosophy as opposed to long term MER. This coupled with the pressure to pay out and the governments keen interest to receive more revenue will create some challenges in 2026 For Sure! Believe a variant of this happened in multiple XOM field overseas

@ed 5 to 7 year plateau? With batch well drilling and continuous well connection pre FPSO first oil it’s pretty challenging to have a 5-7 year peak to plateau time line (even with Guyana’s great rock and fluid properties). Guyana will have + 1,000,000 bopd for maximum 6 months even with 5 the FPSO online…that’s still top tier

@ed very informative post. What’s the decline rate for average Guyana well? Are these wells immune from sand production and water ingress or gas conning?
Trying to use XOM field analogs in WA and Brazil and Guyana wells appear over twice as productive. Is XOM engaging in accelerated production or this is MER

FIELDS DEPLETE that is the oil business. We design FPSO for a 5 to 7 year plateau. Liza started up in Dec 2019, so decline is right on schedule. The plateau design is typically a PV maximizing step. Too long a plateau hurts PV, too short of a plateau means you overinvested in unused capacity in FPSO and wells. This looks like a great economic optimum, especially since LIZA produced well over design capacity for many years. In addition, it was timed with high prices on Ukraine war and now Iran war. The high volumes and c-m to date on Liza also improves the PV of every succeeding boat by accelerating cost recovery on all successor FPSO/Developments. I addition getting experience with a Water-Alternating Gas (WAG) Tertiary project is huge. Liza will have very high recovery factors and sets stage to reserve maximization on all future developments. TREMENDOUS SUCCESS

But create a “crown jewel” situation and have everyone sign off on it. Then you’ll be good

more reason to get indian expat to manage the field...seem like houston dont know how to do the job..

@a2 do spill the tea…please…

Wait until you hear about the problems Permian is having

I always loved the “portfolio” mentions in the earnings call…..our portfolio consisting of two things: Permian and Guyana. Management gleefully ki-led exploration in 2020. Reap what you sow, genuises.

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Guyana Production declined 10,000bopd Month on Month

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