Not looking good!
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@hw if OPEC cuts production that drives global oil price up, not down.
Around $51 to $58 per barrel
The price of crude oil in 2026 is projected to average around $51 to $58 per barrel. Specifically, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts WTI crude oil will average $51.42 per barrel, while Brent crude is expected to average $55 per barrel.
Additionally, J.P. Morgan Research forecasts Brent crude to be around $58 per barrel for the same year.
Oil prices not likely to “crash” due to pretty tight supply/demand. They’ll likely hold reasonably steady in 2026 (between $55 and $65 Brent). Even if OPEC cuts production a bit, prices likely won’t crash below $50. Would take a global event like Covid to get us into that level again in 2026. Some sort of war or incursion in the Middle East or Venezuela is just as likely as a global economic crash and that would prop oil prices higher.
Not a XOM homer here but just giving some actual economic perspective. At $50 Brent, XOM is still profitable. Natural gas around 25% of XOM production and is doing well and will through most of Q1. That will also help prop earnings up a bit.
@OP Crashed back in March of 2020 too. OPEC price war + Covid demand shock pushed O/G into negative territory for a short while in some regional markets.
People really need to de-politicize the industry and understand that business decisions are being driven by incompetent, impulsive people responding to market fundamentals. This is true everywhere, not just in O/G. It just seems worse at places like EM because leaders are more in-your-face about it.
Rough season ahead